Thursday, September 23, 2010

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida Gubernatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida Gubernatorial Survey
  • Alex Sink (D) 47% (40%) [38%]
  • Rick Scott (R) 40% (24%) [36%]
  • Undecided 11% (19%) [26%]
Among Men
  • Rick Scott (R) 51% (29%) [38%]
  • Alex Sink (D) 41% (38%) [35%]
  • Undecided 6% (16%) [27%]
Among Women
  • Alex Sink (D) 53% (42%) [41%]
  • Rick Scott (R) 30% (19%) [34%]
  • Undecided 15% (22%) [25%]
Among Democrats
  • Alex Sink (D) 81% (63%) [66%]
  • Rick Scott (R) 11% (6%) [11%]
  • Undecided 7% (14%) [23%]
Among Republicans
  • Rick Scott (R) 75% (42%) [70%]
  • Alex Sink (D) 11% (16%) [6%]
  • Undecided 12% (25%) [24%]
Among Independents
  • Alex Sink (D) 44% (38%) [39%]
  • Rick Scott (R) 37% (27%) [26%]
  • Undecided 16% (19%) [35%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Alex Sink 44% (36%) [26%] / 23% (19%) [18%] {+21%}
  • Rick Scott 30% (18%) [19%] / 47% (42%) [8%] {-17%}
Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted September 20-22, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Party ID breakdown: 44% (44%) Democrat; 40% (39%) Republican; 16% (17%) Independent/Other. Click here to view crosstabs.

Inside the numbers:
Sink’s current lead is built upon her advantage in traditionally Democratic Southeast Florida (56%-31%) as well as her strong showing in Tampa Bay (51%-37%) -- the state’s key swing region and also Sink’s home base. Her 44%-41% margin in Central Florida is within the margin for error, but shows she is at least competitive in a region which typically leans Republican.

Scott has his best showing in North Florida (52%-37%) and in his home area of Southwest Florida (47%-40%). However, Scott’s margin in Southwest Florida is not as large as it usually is for most GOP candidates.

Sink is getting 85% of the African-American vote, compared to a measly 1% for Scott. Scott only holds a 46%-37% lead among Hispanic voters – which is normally larger because of the heavily Republican Cuban element. His margin among white voters is a mere 46%-42%.

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