Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 39% (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 36% (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (12%)
• Other 4% (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 15% (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (9%)
• Other 4% (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 8% (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 49% (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 48% (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 47% (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 46% (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+1%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 43% (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 49% (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-6%}
• LeAlan Jones 21% (26%) / 36% (30%) {-15%}  

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 18% (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 10% (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 38% (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 46% Democrat; 30% Republican; 24% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Kirk has the backing of 80% of Illinois Republicans, while Giannoulias is supported by 71% of the state’s Democrats. The GOP candidate has a better than two-to-one lead, 56-25%, among voters not affiliated with either party. Jones gets single-digit support from voters in both major parties and unaffiliateds.