Poll Watch: Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% {47%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {45%} [49%] (48%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% {45%} [45%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 3% {3%} [4%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 3% {4%} [4%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {8%} [7%]

With Leaners

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% {48%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% {46%} [46%] (45%) {43%} [48%] (44%)
• Other 2% {3%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Not sure 3% {3%} [3%] (5%) {6%} [3%] (4%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 54% {49%} [53%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (46%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 44% {48%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%)
• Other 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (5%)
• Not sure 0% {1%} [1%] (6%) {3%} [0%] (5%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (52%) {48%} [48%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% {44%} [41%] (43%) {40%} [45%] (43%)
• Other 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
• Not sure 5% {6%} [4%] (3%) {8%} [5%] (4%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% {47%} [50%] (51%) {54%} [48%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 48% {51%} [50%] (49%) {46%} [52%] (51%)

Already Voted

• Carly Fiorina (R) 50%
• Barbara Boxer (D) 46%
• Other 4%

Did Not Vote Yet

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 5%

Certain to Vote

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 47%
• Other 2%
• Not sure 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 49% {44%} [50%] (47%) {48%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [49%] (43%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {51%} [51%] (51%) {51%} [50%] / 51% {50%} [46%] (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [47%] {-2%}
• Carly Fiorina 44% {47%} [49%] (45%) {47%} [55%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [36%] (44%) {37%} [38%] (40%) {32%} [30%] / 53% {49%} [45%] (48%) {44%} [37%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {39%} [34%] (31%) {40%} [34%] (29%) {35%} [35%] {-9%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 41% {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} Democrat; 36% {34%} [37%] (36%) {37%} Republican; 23% {24%} [20%] (24%) {24%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Fiorina is backed by 83% of Republicans while Boxer earns support from 85% of Democrats. Fiorina now has a 7-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.