Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat and Sarah Palin, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 53%
• Sarah Palin 40%

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg, an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 46%
• Sarah Palin 32%
• Michael Bloomberg 18%

If Sarah Palin runs for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, or would you definitely not vote for her?

• Definitely would 8%
• Would consider 31%
• Definitely would not 60%

If Barack Obama runs for re-election in 2012, would you definitely vote for him, would you consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

• Definitely would 26%
• Would consider 28%
• Definitely would not 44%

If Michael Bloomberg were an independent candidate for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for him, would you consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

• Definitely would 2%
• Would consider 45%
• Definitely would not 43%

Survey of registered voters was conducted December 9-12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Even among Republicans, Palin has detractors, with 29 percent saying they would definitely not back her candidacy. Her highest support comes from Republican women and conservative Republicans. Even so, only about one in five in each group say they would certainly support her presidential bid.

Neither does Palin enjoy wide support among independents: 62 percent say they definitely would not vote for her. Among moderates, 66 percent write off her prospective candidacy.

Still, the survey shows limits to Obama's appeal. Among independents, 40 percent say they would not vote for him, 36 percent say they would consider it and 21 percent say they would certainly back him.

Bloomberg's highest levels of support come from independents and young voters, although Obama far outpaces him in both groups. He also draws 25 percent of the vote from those who disapprove of Obama's handling of the presidency, with Palin taking almost six in 10.