Poll Watch: Neighborhood Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

Neighborhood Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Mike Huckabee 24%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Mike Pence 1%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• John Thune 0%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Herman Cain 0%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Undecided 27%

Among Definite Caucus Attendees

• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Sarah Palin 13%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Mike Pence 1%
• Haley Barbour 0%
• John Thune 0%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Herman Cain 0%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Undecided 26%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 59% / 6% {+53%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 9% {+35%}
• Sarah Palin 44% / 19% {+25%}
• Mitt Romney 38% / 13% {+25%}
• Michele Bachmann 24% / 2% {+22%}
• Ron Paul 25% / 9% {+16%}
• Tim Pawlenty 16% / 2% {+14%}
• Haley Barbour 12% / 2% {+10%}
• Rick Santorum 10% / 2% {+8%}
• John Thune 7% / 1% {+6%}
• Mike Pence 6% / 0% {+6%}
• Herman Cain 4% / 0% {+4%}
• Gary Johnson 1% / 0% {+1%}

Survey of 556 likely 2012 caucus attendees was conducted January 3-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. 70 percent of those surveyed said they were definitely attending the caucus. Political ideology: 78% Conservative; 16% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

Inside the numbers:

When counting second choice votes, Huckabee led Romney 36-28 (35-28 with definites) with Palin at 22 percent (26 percent with definites) and Gingrich at 19 percent (17 percent with definites). Pawlenty had 7 percent, Paul 6 percent, Bachmann 5 percent, Pence and Thune 2 percent and Barbour, Santorum and Cain at 1 percent.

Counting third choice votes also, Huckabee led Romney 41-32 with 27 for Palin, 26 for Gingrich, 9 for Pawlenty, 8 for Paul and Bachmann, 3 for Pence, Barbour and Thune, 2 for Santorum and 1 for Cain. With definite voters, Huckabee was up 40-32 with 30 for Palin, 23 for Gingrich, 10 for Pawlenty, 7 for Bachmann, 6 for Paul and 4 for Pence.

Sarah Palin had the highest name ID at 100 percent followed by Mike Huckabee at 99 percent, Newt Gingrich at 98 percent and Mitt Romney at 97 percent. Ron Paul had 89 percent. From there, name ID dropped off significantly. Tim Pawlenty’s name ID was 64 percent, followed by Michele Bachmann at 60 percent, Rick Santorum at 58 percent, Haley Barbour at 52 percent, John Thune at 43 percent, Mike Pence at 38 percent, Herman Cain at 20 percent and Gary Johnson at 19 percent.

Among those definitely voting, name ID figures for nearly every candidate were similar except for Bachmann, whose name ID was 70 percent with definite caucus attendees.

With those definitely voting, Huckabee and Gingrich were slightly weaker while Palin was slightly stronger.

Among the candidates, Romney converts a higher percentage of his favorables into votes than any other candidate (42 percent) followed by Huckabee at 36 percent, Palin and Pawlenty at 24 percent, Pence at 20 percent, Gingrich at 16 percent, Paul at 13 percent, Cain at 9 percent, Bachmann at 8 percent, Thune at 5 percent, Santorum at 4 percent and Barbour at 3 percent.

When it comes to first and second choices, Romney converts 56 percent of his favorables followed by Huckabee at 51 percent, Palin at 46 percent, Pawlenty at 37 percent, Gingrich at 36 percent, Pence at 33 percent, Thune at 28 percent, Cain at 22 percent, Paul at 21 percent, Bachmann at 19 percent, Barbour at 16 percent and Santorum at 9 percent.

Looking at first, second or third choice, Romney gets 64 percent of his favorables, Huckabee 60 percent, Palin 53 percent, Pawlenty 52 percent, Gingrich 48 percent, Pence 43 percent, Thune 33 percent, Bachmann 29 percent, Paul 28 percent, Cain 26 percent, Barbour 22 percent and Santorum 14 percent.

46 percent of respondents are over 65, 34 percent 50-64 (in other words, 80 percent of likely caucus goers are 50 or over). 12 percent are 35 to 49 and 8 percent are under 35.

When asked their ethnic background, 46 percent said they were German, 24 percent English, 23 percent Irish, 9 percent Dutch, 6 percent Scottish, 5 percent Swedish, 5 percent Norwegian, 3 percent French, 3 percent Danish, 2 percent American Indian, 1 percent for each of the following: Italian, Polish, Czech, Swiss and Welsh. 65 percent attend religious services weekly, 13 percent “occasionally” and 22 percent never go.