Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
  • Mike Huckabee 20% {24%} [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
  • Mitt Romney 17% {14%} [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
  • Sarah Palin 15% {14%} [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
  • Newt Gingrich 12% {11%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
  • Ron Paul 8% {7%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
  • Mitch Daniels 4% {4%} [2%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% {8%} [5%]
  • John Thune 1% {1%} [3%]
Given the same list of choices who would your second choice be for President in 2012?
  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 13%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 1%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mike Huckabee 58% {64%} [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 15% {16%} [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+43%}
  • Sarah Palin 65% {65%} [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 25% {26%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+40%}
  • Mitt Romney 55% {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 25% {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+30%}
  • Newt Gingrich 55% {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 26% {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+29%}
  • Ron Paul 30% / 37% {-7%}
  • Donald Trump 29% / 56% {-27%}
Among Voters Who Think Obama Was Born in the U.S. (28%)
  • Mike Huckabee 50% / 20% {+30%}
  • Mitt Romney 52% / 26% {+26%}
  • Newt Gingrich 46% / 40% {+6%}
  • Sarah Palin 41% / 52% {-11%}
  • Ron Paul 20% / 53% {-33%}
  • Donald Trump 27% / 65% {-38%}
Among Voters Who Think Obama Was NOT Born in the U.S. (51%)
  • Sarah Palin 83% / 12% {+71%}
  • Mike Huckabee 64% / 12% {+52%}
  • Newt Gingrich 59% / 19% {+40%}
  • Mitt Romney 55% / 27% {+28%}
  • Ron Paul 34% / 34% {0%}
  • Donald Trump 33% / 51% {-18%}
Do you think Mitt Romney is most qualified to be President or Vice President?
  • President 50%
  • Vice president 24%
Do you think Mike Huckabee is most qualified to be President or Vice President?
  • President 44%
  • Vice president 28%
Do you think Newt Gingrich is most qualified to be President or Vice President?
  • President 27%
  • Vice president 37%
Do you think Sarah Palin is most qualified to be President or Vice President?
  • President 29%
  • Vice president 46%
Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?
  • Yes 28%
  • No 51%
  • Not sure 21%
Survey of 400 Republican primary voters nationwide was conducted February 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 85% Republican; 12% Independent/Other; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% Somewhat conservative; 39% Very conservative; 15% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Birtherism is alive and well within the GOP ranks, and their 2012 nominee preferences tell a story about the difficulty Mitt Romney faces in trying to appeal to an electorate that's a whole lot further out there than he is. 
Birthers make a majority among those voters who say they're likely to participate in a Republican primary next year. 51% say they don't think Barack Obama was born in the United States to just 28% who firmly believe that he was and 21% who are unsure. The GOP birther majority is a new development. The last time PPP tested this question nationally, in August of 2009, only 44% of Republicans said they thought Obama was born outside the country while 36% said that he definitely was born in the United States. If anything birtherism is on the rise. 
How does this impact Romney? Well among the 49% of GOP primary voters who either think Obama was born in the United States or aren't sure, Romney's the first choice to be the 2012 nominee by a good amount, getting 23% to 16% for Mike Huckabee, 11% for Sarah Palin, and 10% for Newt Gingrich. But with the birther majority he's in a distant fourth place at 11%, with Mike Huckabee at 24%, Sarah Palin at 19%, and Newt Gingrich at 14% all ahead of him. 
There is really a remarkable divide in how the birther and non-birther wings of the GOP view Sarah Palin. With the birthers she is a beloved figure, scoring an 83/12 favorability rating. Non-birthers are almost evenly divided on her with 47% rating her positively and 40% unfavorably.

No comments: