Poll Watch: Neighborhood Research (R) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Neighborhood Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Mike Huckabee 21.0 % (24%)
• Mitt Romney 13.5% (19%)
• Donald Trump 8.8%
• Newt Gingrich 7.8% (8%)
• Sarah Palin 6.6% (11%)
• Michele Bachmann 5.3% (2%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4.4% (4%)
• Ron Paul 3.4% (3%)
• Herman Cain 2.5% (0%)
• Rick Santorum 1.3% (0%)
• Haley Barbour 0.9% (1%)
• Roy Moore 0.6%
• Mitch Daniels 0.3%
• Gary Johnson 0.0% (0%)
• John Bolton 0.0%
• Jon Huntsman 0.0%
• Buddy Roemer 0.0% 
• Undecided 23.5% (27%)

Excluding Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin

• Mitt Romney 21.0%
• Newt Gingrich 12.2%
• Michele Bachmann 6.6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6.3%
• Ron Paul 5.6%
• Herman Cain 2.8%
• Rick Santorum 1.9%
• Haley Barbour 0.9%
• Roy Moore 0.9%
• Mitch Daniels 0.6%
• Gary Johnson 0.3%
• John Bolton 0.0%
• Jon Huntsman 0.0%
• Buddy Roemer 0.0% 
• Undecided 40.8%

Only Including Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul

• Mitt Romney 24.1%
• Newt Gingrich 12.5%
• Tim Pawlenty 8.2%
• Michele Bachmann 7.9%
• Ron Paul 6.9%
• Undecided 40.4%

Survey of 319 likely 2012 caucus attendees was conducted March 29 - April 4, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 3-8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among those who never attend religious services (24%), Trump leads with 16% followed by Romney at 14%, Huckabee at 13%, Palin at 10%, Pawlenty at 9%, Bachmann at 4% and Gingrich and Cain tied at 3%. Those who oppose a government shutdown (32%) are voting 22% for Huckabee, 19% for Romney, 10% for Gingrich, 7% for Trump, 5% for Palin, 3% for Bachmann, 2% for Pawlenty and Moore and 1% for Daniels, Barbour, Santorum and Paul.

Donald Trump was not included in the January survey but his presence, along with Bachmann’s emergence and Cain’s signs of life, has clearly come at the expense of the more established names in the race, particularly Romney. 

Trump voters break 32% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 7% for Bachmann and 4% for Johnson, Santorum, Daniels, Pawlenty and Paul. 32% of Trump voters are undecided. Palin voters break 19% for Gingrich, 19% for Romney and 5% for Paul, Bachmann and Moore. 48% are undecided. 54% of Huckabee voters are undecided in the second ballot test. Romney leads with 16% to 10% for Gingrich, 8% for Paul and Pawlenty and 2% for Cain, Bachmann and Santorum. 

With the 19% of voters who consider themselves very conservative, support the government shutdown and attend services weekly, Huckabee has 18%, Gingrich has 15%, Bachmann 12%, Romney 10%, Trump 10%, Cain 8%, Palin and Pawlenty at 7%, Paul at 3% and Santorum at 2% with just 8% undecided. 

Respondents support a government shutdown by a 51-32 margin, including 58-23 with conservatives and 61-21 with those who consider themselves very conservative. Huckabee voters back the shutdown by 45-33, Palin voters support it by 48-24, Gingrich voters by 52-40, Trump supporters by 68-25, Bachmann voters by 71-18, Pawlenty backers by 79-14, Paul supporters by 82-9 and Cain voters by 88-0. Romney voters oppose the shutdown by a 40-44 plurality. 

Those supporting Romney on the third ballot test support the shutdown by 44-36, Gingrich voters back it by 53-35, Pawlenty voters by 65-19, Bachmann voters by 76-16 and Paul voters by 82-9.