Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Presidential Survey

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Presidential Survey 

Favorable / Unfavorable

• Rudy Giuliani 55% / 25% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 39% [40%] (36%) {40%} / 29% [30%] (29%) {34%} {+10%}
• Ron Paul 34% [30%] / 26% [27%] {+8%}
• Herman Cain 17% / 10% {+7%}
• Michele Bachmann 28% [22%] / 24% [23%] {+4%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% [9%] / 11% [13%] {+2%}
• Tim Pawlenty 20% [17%] / 18% [18%] {+2%}
• Rick Santorum 16% [16%] / 20% [19%] {-4%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [35%] (40%) {39%} / 52% [59%] (49%) {55%} {-13%}
• Newt Gingrich 30% [30%] (32%) {38%} / 44% [44%] (40%) {38%} {-14%}

Among Republicans

• Sarah Palin 78% [68%] / 17% [26%] {+61%}
• Rudy Giuliani 76% / 16% {+60%}
• Mitt Romney 64% [61%] / 19% [13%] {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% [58%] / 23% [23%] {+32%}
• Michele Bachmann 45% [35%] / 15% [10%] {+30%}
• Ron Paul 50% [41%] / 23% [20%] {+27%}
• Tim Pawlenty 35% [28%] / 12% [6%] {+23%}
• Herman Cain 31% / 10% {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 31% [28%] / 14% [9%] {+17%}
• Jon Huntsman 21% [13%] / 8% [9%] {+13%}

Among Independents

• Rudy Giuliani 56% / 22% {+34%}
• Ron Paul 37% [40%] / 23% [25%] {+14%}
• Mitt Romney 39% [40%] / 27% [33%] {+12%}
• Herman Cain 15% / 6% {+9%}
• Tim Pawlenty 20% [15%] / 16% [22%] {+4%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% [10%] / 12% [16%] {0%}
• Michele Bachmann 23% [23%] / 25% [23%] {-2%}
• Rick Santorum 13% [15%] / 22% [21%] {-9%}
• Newt Gingrich 27% [28%] / 46% [46%] {-19%}
• Sarah Palin 33% [32%] / 55% [61%] {-22%}

Among Democrats

• Rudy Giuliani 37% / 37% {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% [6%] / 12% [13%] {-4%}
• Herman Cain 8% / 16% {-8%}
• Michele Bachmann 21% [13%] / 31% [33%] {-10%}
• Ron Paul 17% [9%] / 31% [35%] {-14%}
• Rick Santorum 8% [8%] / 23% [23%] {-15%}
• Mitt Romney 21% [24%] / 39% [40%] {-18%}
• Tim Pawlenty 7% [11%] / 25% [22%] {-18%}
• Newt Gingrich 17% [11%] / 58% [57%] {-41%}
• Sarah Palin 19% [14%] / 75% [81%] {-56%}

Among Moderates

• Rudy Giuliani 60% / 22% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 40% [35%] / 26% [32%] {+14%}
• Ron Paul 28% [29%] / 25% [28%] {+3%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% [8%] / 8% [13%] {+2%}
• Herman Cain 11% / 9% {+2%}
• Tim Pawlenty 17% [13%] / 15% [20%] {+2%}
• Michele Bachmann 19% [17%] / 27% [23%] {-8%}
• Rick Santorum 12% [12%] / 20% [15%] {-8%}
• Newt Gingrich 26% [22%] / 51% [50%] {-25%}
• Sarah Palin 31% [25%] / 62% [68%] {-31%}

Among Conservatives

• Rudy Giuliani 63% / 19% {+44%}
• Sarah Palin 61% [59%] / 28% [36%] {+33%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% [36%] / 13% [12%] {+31%}
• Mitt Romney 52% [53%] / 22% [21%] {+30%}
• Ron Paul 47% [40%] / 22% [19%] {+25%}
• Herman Cain 28% / 7% {+21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 30% [26%] / 13% [10%] {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 26% [25%] / 13% [13%] {+13%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% [51%] / 34% [27%] {+10%}
• Jon Huntsman 17% [12%] / 11% [10%] {+6%}

Among Men

• Rudy Giuliani 61% / 25% {+36%}
• Ron Paul 40% [38%] / 29% [27%] {+11%}
• Mitt Romney 42% [44%] / 32% [31%] {+10%}
• Herman Cain 20% / 11% {+9%}
• Tim Pawlenty 27% [21%] / 18% [23%] {+9%}
• Michele Bachmann 32% [26%] / 27% [26%] {+5%}
• Jon Huntsman 15% [11%] / 14% [17%] {+1%}
• Rick Santorum 18% [18%] / 25% [22%] {-7%}
• Sarah Palin 40% [39%] / 50% [57%] {-10%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% [35%] / 46% [42%] {-12%}

Among Women

• Rudy Giuliani 49% / 26% {+23%}
• Mitt Romney 37% [36%] / 26% [30%] {+11%}
• Ron Paul 28% [23%] / 23% [27%] {+5%}
• Jon Huntsman 11% [7%] / 8% [10%] {+3%}
• Herman Cain 13% / 10% {+3%}
• Michele Bachmann 24% [19%] / 22% [21%] {+2%}
• Rick Santorum 13% [14%] / 16% [15%] {-3%}
• Tim Pawlenty 13% [13%] / 18% [14%] {-5%}
• Newt Gingrich 27% [25%] / 43% [46%] {-16%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [30%] / 55% [62%] {-16%}

Income $50K+

• Rudy Giuliani 61% / 25% {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 46% [48%] / 33% [34%] {+13%}
• Herman Cain 18% / 10% {+8%}
• Tim Pawlenty 26% [22%] / 18% [20%] {+8%}
• Michele Bachmann 28% [23%] / 28% [30%] {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 12% [10%] / 12% [15%] {0%}
• Ron Paul 30% [35%] / 34% [33%] {-4%}
• Rick Santorum 19% [18%] / 23% [23%] {-4%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% [32%] / 50% [52%] {-17%}
• Sarah Palin 38% [36%] / 57% [60%] {-19%}

Attended College

• Rudy Giuliani 60% / 26% {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 43% [47%] / 32% [33%] {+11%}
• Herman Cain 17% / 12% {+5%}
• Ron Paul 36% [37%] / 31% [31%] {+5%}
• Tim Pawlenty 22% [20%] / 20% [21%] {+2%}
• Jon Huntsman 14% [9%] / 13% [14%] {+1%}
• Michele Bachmann 26% [23%] / 30% [30%] {-4%}
• Rick Santorum 18% [17%] / 24% [21%] {-6%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% [33%] / 49% [50%] {-16%}
• Sarah Palin 38% [34%] / 55% [62%] {-17%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Democratic Party 55% / 39% {+16%}
• Republican Party 49% / 45% {+4%}
• Tea Party 35% / 47% {-12%}

Among Republicans and GOP-Leaning Independents

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Rudy Giuliani:

Is qualified to be president

• Applies 77%
• Does not apply 21%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 85%
• Does not apply 14%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Applies 56%
• Does not apply 42%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 75%
• Does not apply 23%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Applies 74%
• Does not apply 25%

Is not a typical politician

• Applies 53%
• Does not apply 45%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Mitt Romney:

Is qualified to be president

• Applies 75%
• Does not apply 21%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 73%
• Does not apply 25%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Applies 65%
• Does not apply 31%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 64%
• Does not apply 31%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Applies 68%
• Does not apply 29%

Is not a typical politician

• Applies 41%
• Does not apply 56%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Sarah Palin:

Is qualified to be president

• Applies 60%
• Does not apply 39%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 65%
• Does not apply 33%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Applies 44%
• Does not apply 54%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 80%
• Does not apply 18%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Applies 79%
• Does not apply 20%

Is not a typical politician

• Applies 70%
• Does not apply 28%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Newt Gingrich:

Is qualified to be president

• Applies 67%
• Does not apply 30%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 63%
• Does not apply 33%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Applies 43%
• Does not apply 52%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 61%
• Does not apply 35%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Applies 64%
• Does not apply 32%

Is not a typical politician

• Applies 40%
• Does not apply 55%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Ron Paul:

Is qualified to be president

• Applies 53%
• Does not apply 36%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 55%
• Does not apply 34%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Applies 27%
• Does not apply 64%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 56%
• Does not apply 30%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Applies 53%
• Does not apply 36%

Is not a typical politician

• Applies 51%
• Does not apply 39%

SUMMARY TABLES

Is Qualified to be President

• Rudy Giuliani 77%
• Mitt Romney 75%
• Newt Gingrich 67%
• Sarah Palin 60%
• Ron Paul 53%

Is a Strong and Decisive Leader

• Rudy Giuliani 85%
• Mitt Romney 73%
• Sarah Palin 65%
• Newt Gingrich 63%
• Ron Paul 55%

Can beat Barack Obama in the general election next November

• Mitt Romney 65%
• Rudy Giuliani 56%
• Sarah Palin 44%
• Newt Gingrich 43%
• Ron Paul 27%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Sarah Palin 80%
• Rudy Giuliani 75%
• Mitt Romney 64%
• Newt Gingrich 61%
• Ron Paul 56%

Represents the values of Republicans like yourself

• Sarah Palin 79%
• Rudy Giuliani 74%
• Mitt Romney 68%
• Newt Gingrich 64%
• Ron Paul 53%

Is Not a Typical Politician

• Sarah Palin 70%
• Rudy Giuliani 53%
• Ron Paul 51%
• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 40%

Thinking about the complete list of candidates who may be running for the Republican nomination, please tell me whether you would describe any of them as another Ronald Reagan –- that is, someone who inspires in you the same amount of confidence and enthusiasm that you feel when you think about how Reagan handled his job while he was president? (IF YES) Who do you feel that way about?

Among Republicans and GOP-Leaning Independents

• Sarah Palin 16%
• Rudy Giuliani 15%
• Mitt Romney 13%
• Herman Cain 7%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• No opinion 2%
• No GOP candidate 43%

NOTE: Percentages add up to more than 100% because respondents were allowed to name more than one candidate who they would describe as "another Ronald Reagan."

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party nominate a presidential candidate who agrees with you on every issue that matters to you but may not be able to beat Barack Obama, or a presidential candidate who can beat Barack Obama but does not agree with you on every issue that matters to you?

Among Republicans and GOP-Leaning Independents

• Can beat Barack Obama 75% {68%}
• Agrees with you on issues 24% {29%}

Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country's problems. Which comes closer to your own view?

• Doing too much 63%
• Should do more 33%

Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?

• Promote traditional values 46%
• Not favor any set of values 50%

Survey of 1,015 adults, including a subsample of 433 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted June 3-7, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points among adults; +/- 4.5 percentage points among Republican and Republican-leaning Independents.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.