Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

• Mitt Romney 21% {25%}
• Herman Cain 15%
• Sarah Palin 15% {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% {15%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% {10%}
• Tim Pawlenty 10% {9%}
• Ron Paul 8% {15%}
• Jon Huntsman 0%
• Someone Else/Undecided 8% {11%}

If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?

• Mitt Romney 26% {28%}
• Herman Cain 16%
• Newt Gingrich 15% {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 14% {15%}
• Ron Paul 11% {16%}
• Tim Pawlenty 10% {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Someone Else/Undecided 8% {12%}

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Tim Pawlenty 41%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Sarah Palin 41%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Michele Bachmann 38%

If the Republican nomination contest came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Herman Cain 34%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Michele Bachmann 53% {49%} / 16% {13%} {+37%}
• Jeb Bush 51% / 20% {+31%}
• Chris Christie 42% / 12% {+30%}
• Tim Pawlenty 48% {41%} [34%] / 18% {9%} [12%] {+30%}
• Paul Ryan 42% / 14% {+28%}
• Sarah Palin 59% {58%} [60%] / 31% {29%} [29%] {+28%}
• Rudy Giuliani 49% {48%} [49%] / 31% {25%} [30%] {+18%}
• Mitt Romney 51% {55%} [57%] / 34% {25%} [26%] {+17%}
• Herman Cain 38% {15%} / 24% {9%} {+14%}
• Ron Paul 42% {55%} [47%] / 29% {17%} [23%] {+13%}
• Rick Santorum 29% {27%} [28%] / 18% {11%} [9%] {+11%}
• Rick Perry 21% / 16% {+5%}
• Newt Gingrich 39% {47%} [53%] / 41% {26%} [27%] {-2%}
• Gary Johnson 4% {2%} / 18% {8%} {-14%}
• Fred Karger 2% / 17% {-15%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% {5%} / 23% {8%} {-16%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% {2%} / 21% {10%} {-17%}
• Donald Trump 28% {41%} / 56% {40%} {-28%}

Among Men

• Michele Bachmann 55% {53%} / 21% {15%} {+34%}
• Tim Pawlenty 53% {46%} [35%] / 19% {13%} [15%] {+34%}
• Chris Christie 47% / 15% {+32%}
• Paul Ryan 49% / 17% {+32%}
• Sarah Palin 61% {64%} [62%] / 30% {27%} [27%] {+31%}
• Jeb Bush 52% / 24% {+28%}
• Ron Paul 50% {59%} [52%] / 30% {18%} [23%] {+20%}
• Herman Cain 43% {17%} / 26% {12%} {+17%}
• Rudy Giuliani 50% {46%} [52%] / 37% {29%} [31%] {+13%}
• Rick Santorum 33% {32%} [30%] / 21% {16%} [11%] {+12%}
• Mitt Romney 47% {58%} [57%] / 38% {28%} [29%] {+9%}
• Rick Perry 24% / 19% {+5%}
• Newt Gingrich 41% {53%} [59%] / 44% {25%} [30%] {-3%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 21% {-18%}
• Jon Huntsman 8% {7%} / 27% {13%} {-19%}
• Gary Johnson 4% {1%} / 23% {12%} {-19%}
• Buddy Roemer 5% {3%} / 26% {14%} {-21%}
• Donald Trump 29% {43%} / 60% {43%} {-31%}

Among Women

• Michele Bachmann 50% {44%} / 10% {11%} {+40%}
• Jeb Bush 49% / 15% {+34%}
• Chris Christie 37% / 9% {+28%}
• Mitt Romney 56% {52%} [57%] / 29% {22%} [22%] {+27%}
• Tim Pawlenty 43% {36%} [32%] / 18% {5%} [9%] {+25%}
• Paul Ryan 33% / 9% {+24%}
• Sarah Palin 56% {51%} [57%] / 32% {31%} [31%] {+24%}
• Rudy Giuliani 48% {49%} [45%] / 25% {21%} [29%] {+23%}
• Herman Cain 33% {13%} / 21% {6%} {+12%}
• Rick Santorum 24% {22%} [25%] / 14% {6%} [8%] {+10%}
• Rick Perry 17% / 11% {+6%}
• Ron Paul 33% {49%} [40%] / 28% {16%} [22%] {+5%}
• Newt Gingrich 36% {40%} [46%] / 37% {28%} [23%] {-1%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {3%} / 12% {3%} {-9%}
• Fred Karger 1% / 12% {-11%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% {1%} / 14% {6%} {-11%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% {3%} / 18% {3%} {-13%}
• Donald Trump 27% {40%} / 52% {36%} {-25%}

Among Birthers (Believe Obama Was NOT Born in U.S.)

• Sarah Palin 73% {67%} / 18% {22%} {+55%}
• Michele Bachmann 59% {52%} / 11% {9%} {+48%}
• Tim Pawlenty 50% {40%} / 14% {6%} {+36%}
• Jeb Bush 53% / 20% {+33%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 13% {+30%}
• Chris Christie 38% / 15% {+23%}
• Ron Paul 44% {58%} / 28% {13%} {+16%}
• Mitt Romney 52% {50%} / 36% {28%} {+16%}
• Rick Santorum 32% {28%} / 17% {12%} {+15%}
• Herman Cain 36% {13%} / 24% {10%} {+12%}
• Newt Gingrich 43% {53%} / 35% {23%} {+8%}
• Rudy Giuliani 44% {53%} / 37% {23%} {+7%}
• Rick Perry 22% / 16% {+6%}
• Donald Trump 37% {50%} / 46% {36%} {-9%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 20% {-17%}
• Gary Johnson 3% {2%} / 23% {9%} {-20%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% {2%} / 24% {11%} {-20%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {5%} / 27% {10%} {-21%}

Among Non-Birthers (Believe Obama WAS Born in U.S.)

• Chris Christie 48% / 12% {+36%}
• Jeb Bush 51% / 23% {+28%}
• Tim Pawlenty 49% {39%} / 22% {22%} {+27%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 19% {+24%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% {41%} / 24% {29%} {+23%}
• Mitt Romney 53% {63%} / 30% {24%} {+23%}
• Rudy Giuliani 53% {45%} / 31% {31%} {+22%}
• Herman Cain 39% {16%} / 26% {15%} {+13%}
• Ron Paul 44% {45%} / 31% {31%} {+13%}
• Rick Santorum 27% {27%} / 22% {19%} {+5%}
• Rick Perry 20% / 18% {+2%}
• Sarah Palin 43% {40%} / 45% {52%} {-2%}
• Jon Huntsman 10% {8%} / 22% {9%} {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 35% {39%} / 48% {39%} {-13%}
• Fred Karger 3% / 17% {-14%}
• Gary Johnson 4% {3%} / 18% {10%} {-14%}
• Buddy Roemer 6% {3%} / 21% {14%} {-15%}
• Donald Trump 23% {32%} / 67% {59%} {-44%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 31% {28%}
• No 48% {48%}

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 42% {26%}
• No 36% {48%}
• Not sure 23% {26%}

Survey of 481 usual Iowa Republican primary voters was conducted May 27-30, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 41% {44%} Very conservative; 37% {33%} Somewhat conservative; 14% {17%} Moderate; 6% {4%} Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in square brackets.