Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Mitt Romney 33% {17%} [24%] (20%)
• Michele Bachmann 19%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9% {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 7% {8%} [4%] (5%)
• Tim Pawlenty 6% {5%} [6%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Some other candidate 8% {5%} [6%] (7%)

National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted June 14, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.


Inside the numbers:

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each. Romney holds a 36% to 16% lead over the congresswoman among non-members. Most primary voters regard all the candidates with the exception of Huntsman as conservative, but Bachmann is seen as the most conservative. 

There is little difference of opinion among male and female GOP primary voters, although women give Romney slightly more support. The gap between Romney and Bachmann is narrowest among middle-aged primary voters. 

Romney, Bachmann and Cain earn 31%, 22% and 12% support respectively among primary voters who describe themselves as conservatives. Romney runs strongest among party moderates. 

Seventy-five percent (75%) of primary voters describe Bachmann as at least somewhat conservative. That includes 55% who say she is Very Conservative. 

By contrast, 61% rate Romney as at least somewhat conservative, but that includes just 11% who say he is Very Conservative. Fifty-seven percent (57%) think Cain is at least somewhat conservative, with 32% who view him as Very Conservative. 

Gingrich is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 68% of likely primary voters, with 35% who feel he is Very Conservative. Similarly, 63% say Paul is at least somewhat conservative, including 39% who think he is Very Conservative. Pawlenty is seen as at least somewhat conservative by 59%, but only 19% say he’s Very Conservative. 

Fifty-eight percent (58%) think Santorum is at least somewhat conservative, including 30% who view him as Very Conservative. Just 31%, however, say Huntsman is at least somewhat conservative, with seven percent (7%) who rate him Very Conservative. Another 20% characterize him as a moderate, but a sizable 40% don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion of his political views. 

Huntsman is the least known of the declared or soon-to-be declared candidates.