Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Mitt Romney 35% (41%) {33%} [36%] (40%)
• Michele Bachmann 12% (4%) {4%} [4%]
• Rudy Giuliani 7% (9%) {6%} [7%] (10%)
• Ron Paul 7% (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) {6%} [2%] (7%)
• Sarah Palin 3% (5%) {5%} [4%] (6%)
• Herman Cain 2% (4%) {4%}
• Jon Huntsman 2% (3%) {4%} [0%]
• Newt Gingrich 1% (3%) {7%} [4%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (3%) {2%} [0%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 1% (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 0% (0%) {0%}
• Don't know 19% (13%) {17%} [14%] (10%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 40% (44%) [39%] (42%)
• Michele Bachmann 10% (6%)
• Rudy Giuliani 8% (9%) [6%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 5%
• Ron Paul 5% (4%) [5%]
• Other 14% (20%) [21%] (20%)
• Don't know 17% (14%) [15%] (9%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 31% (41%) [33%] (38%)
• Michele Bachmann 15% (4%)
• Ron Paul 11% (9%) [6%]
• Rudy Giuliani 5% (8%) [8%] (15%)
• Rick Perry 3%
• Other 14% (21%) [18%] (20%)
• Don't know 20% (12%) [13%] (12%)

Second Choice

• Michele Bachmann 14% {7%}
• Mitt Romney 11% (14%) {20%}
• Rudy Giuliani 9% (10%) {6%}
• Sarah Palin 9% (9%) {10%}
• Other 28% (21%)
• No second choice 18% (27%) {21%}
• Don't know 12% (14%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 68% [70%] (73%) / 24% [21%] (16%) {+44%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% [26%] / 23% [29%] {+29%}
• Rudy Giuliani 56% [59%] (59%) / 33% [29%] (29%) {+23%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% [38%] (34%) / 20% [12%] (9%) {+19%}
• Rick Perry 34% / 15% {+19%}
• Herman Cain 32% / 13% {+19%}
• Rick Santorum 33% [31%] (30%) / 21% [19%] (12%) {+12%}
• Jon Huntsman 19% [9%] / 23% [12%] {-4%}
• Gary Johnson 12% [9%] (6%) / 17% [14%] (11%) {-5%}
• Ron Paul 40% [41%] (36%) / 45% [40%] (35%) {-5%}
• Buddy Roemer 8% / 17% {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 41% [37%] (33%) / 52% [50%] (50%) {-11%}
• Newt Gingrich 25% [42%] (41%) / 62% [44%] (40%) {-37%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 75% [72%] (73%) / 16% [20%] (13%) {+59%}
• Michele Bachmann 56% [27%] / 17% [28%] {+39%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% [63%] (63%) / 25% [26%] (25%) {+37%}
• Rick Perry 38% / 10% {+28%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [37%] (34%) / 17% [17%] (12%) {+25%}
• Tim Pawlenty 44% [41%] (37%) / 21% [11%] (9%) {+23%}
• Herman Cain 34% / 14% {+20%}
• Jon Huntsman 17% [8%] / 21% [13%] {-4%}
• Gary Johnson 12% [6%] (5%) / 16% [13%] (11%) {-4%}
• Ron Paul 40% [41%] (35%) / 45% [42%] (35%) {-5%}
• Sarah Palin 43% [43%] (36%) / 51% [44%] (47%) {-8%}
• Buddy Roemer 7% / 17% {-10%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% [45%] (48%) / 56% [41%] (33%) {-24%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 62% [69%] (70%) / 31% [22%] (21%) {+31%}
• Herman Cain 32% / 12% {+20%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% [34%] (30%) / 19% [14%] (11%) {+17%}
• Michele Bachmann 47% [24%] / 31% [30%] {+16%}
• Rick Perry 31% / 20% {+11%}
• Rudy Giuliani 48% [55%] (52%) / 42% [34%] (36%) {+6%}
• Rick Santorum 25% [25%] (21%) / 25% [22%] (12%) {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 22% [10%] / 22% [11%] {0%}
• Gary Johnson 13% [11%] (8%) / 17% [14%] (11%) {-4%}
• Ron Paul 41% [40%] (39%) / 46% [39%] (35%) {-5%}
• Buddy Roemer 10% / 17% {-7%}
• Sarah Palin 38% [29%] (28%) / 54% [60%] (56%) {-16%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% [38%] (31%) / 69% [49%] (51%) {-53%}

Which candidate would you not support under any circumstances?

• Sarah Palin 23%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Mitt Romney 7%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Rudy Giuliani 4%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Don't know 24%

General Election

• Mitt Romney 47% [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama 43% [43%] (41%)

• Barack Obama 47%
• Michele Bachmann 41%

• Barack Obama 47% [45%] (44%)
• Tim Pawlenty 38% [38%] (37%)

Survey of 773 adults, including 357 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.2 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.

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