Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Mitt Romney 22% (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%)
• Rick Perry 18%
• Michele Bachmann 16% (19%)
• Ron Paul 10% (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
• Herman Cain 9% (10%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%)
• Some other candidate 4% (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 9%

Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?

• Yes 39%
• No 43%
• Not sure 17%

National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted July 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.


Inside the numbers:

Perry leads among Tea Party members with 28% support. Bachmann runs second in this group with 22% of the vote, with Romney at 16% closely followed by Cain’s 13%. Among primary voters who are not Tea Party members, Romney captures 29% of the vote. Perry (13%), Bachmann (11%) and Paul (10%) follow at a distance.

Perry, Romney and Bachmann are closely grouped together as the favorites of male primary voters. Among female primary voters, Romney leads the other two by 10 points. 

Romney and Perry each pick up roughly one-quarter of the party’s conservative vote. 

Evangelical Christians like Perry best at this point, while Romney holds a modest lead among other Protestants. Catholics give Romney, Perry and Bachmann similar support, but Romney is well ahead among those of other faiths.