Poll Watch: Rasmussen Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Rasmussen Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

• Michele Bachmann 22%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Rick Perry 12%
• Tim Pawlenty 11%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Some other candidate 7%

Survey of 627 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted August 4, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Overall, just 28% of potential Iowa Caucus participants are absolutely certain of how they will vote, while the rest could change their mind. Among those who are certain of their vote, Ron Paul is on top at 27%.

Just 49% of Paul’s supporters would vote for the Republican nominee if their man does not win the nomination. That’s well below the total for other candidates. Fifteen percent (15%) of Paul’s supporters would vote for President Obama over another Republican, and 22% would go the third party route. It’s important to remember that part of the congressman’s appeal is from his anti-war position which earns him support from many Democrats. 

Overall, just 23% of likely caucus participants believe that Republicans in Congress have done a good job representing GOP values in recent years, while 67% believe their representatives have lost touch with the party base. 

Bachmann is the most popular candidate among potential caucus-goers. Seventy percent (70%) have a favorable opinion of her, including 37% with a Very Favorable opinion. No other candidate in the field earns Very Favorable reviews from more than 20%. 

Romney earns favorable reviews from 62%, Pawlenty from 61%, Paul from 58% and Perry from 50%. Perry is the least well-known of the GOP candidates, with 19% who have no opinion of him one way or the other. 

Cain is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 36%. For Huntsman, the numbers are 26% favorable and 49% unfavorable. 

The least popular candidate is Gingrich. Just 33% offer a positive assessment of the former House speaker, while 62% voice a negative opinion. 

Thirty-four percent (34%) of the likely caucus participants consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. Among these voters, Bachmann leads. Among those not part of the movement, Romney leads.