Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination

• Rick Perry 26%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Sarah Palin 8%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Newt Gingrich 4%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• None of these 6%
• Not sure 10%

General Election

• Barack Obama 48% 
• Mitt Romney 43%

Note: Among respondents who said they are likely to vote in 2012, Romney leads Obama, 48 percent to 45 percent.  

• Barack Obama 49%
• Rick Perry 40%

Note: Among respondents who said they are likely to vote in 2012, Obama leads Perry, 48 percent to 45 percent.

I'd like to mention some major political figures. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to answer, just say so.

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 21% {22%} [22%] (21%)
• Mostly favorable 29% {32%} [33%] (31%)
• Mostly unfavorable 19% {19%} [19%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 28% {23%} [22%] (24%)
• Not sure 3% {4%} [4%] (4%)

Mitt Romney

• Very favorable 10% {8%}
• Mostly favorable 32% {29%}
• Mostly unfavorable 23% {20%}
• Very unfavorable 15% {11%}
• Not sure 20% {32%}

Herman Cain

• Very favorable 7% {7%}
• Mostly favorable 15% {11%}
• Mostly unfavorable 13% {9%}
• Very unfavorable 14% {6%}
• Not sure 51% {67%}

Ron Paul

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 24%
• Mostly unfavorable 23%
• Very unfavorable 18%
• Not sure 27%

Rick Perry

• Very favorable 11%
• Mostly favorable 21%
• Mostly unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 25%
• Not sure 27%

Jon Huntsman

• Very favorable 3% {3%}
• Mostly favorable 14% {10%}
• Mostly unfavorable 18% {9%}
• Very unfavorable 14% {5%}
• Not sure 51% {73%}

Rick Santorum

• Very favorable 4%
• Mostly favorable 13%
• Mostly unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 18%
• Not sure 48%

Michele Bachmann

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 20%
• Mostly unfavorable 19%
• Very unfavorable 29%
• Not sure 24%

Newt Gingrich

• Very favorable 7% {6%} [8%]
• Mostly favorable 21% {19%} [20%]
• Mostly unfavorable 24% {27%} [18%]
• Very unfavorable 31% {24%} [22%]
• Not sure 17% {24%} [32%]

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 7% {10%} [9%] (9%)
• Mostly favorable 19% {21%} [19%] (24%)
• Mostly unfavorable 22% {22%} [22%] (24%)
• Very unfavorable 44% {36%} [38%] (33%)
• Not sure 8% {11%} [12%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 42% / 38% {+4%}
• Barack Obama 50% / 47% {+3%}
• Herman Cain 22% / 27% {-5%}
• Ron Paul 32% / 41% {-9%}
• Rick Perry 32% / 41% {-9%}
• Jon Huntsman 17% / 32% {-15%}
• Rick Santorum 17% / 35% {-18%}
• Michele Bachmann 28% / 48% {-20%}
• Newt Gingrich 28% / 55% {-27%}
• Sarah Palin 26% / 66% {-40%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 49%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing:


With the economy

• Approve 33%
• Disapprove 62%

With the budget deficit

• Approve 30%
• Disapprove 62%

With creating jobs

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 57%

With negotiating with the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 52%

With health care

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 53%

With the situation in Libya

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 35%

With terrorism

• Approve 65%
• Disapprove 26%

In the 2012 election, do you anticipate you will definitely vote for President Obama, consider voting for another candidate, or definitely vote for another candidate?

• Definitely Obama 29%
• Consider voting for another candidate 21%
• Definitely vote for another candidate 43%

Are you better off or worse off than you were at the beginning of 2009?

• Better off 27%
• Worse off 44%
• About the same (vol.) 28%

Are you mostly happy with the current slate of Republican candidates, or do you wish some other candidate would get in the race? (Asked only of those who would consider or definitely vote for a candidate other than Obama)

• Mostly happy 42%
• Wish another candidate would get in race 47%

Do you think Barack Obama is the best candidate to face the Republican nominee in 2012 or would you like to see another candidate try for the Democratic nomination? (Asked only of Democrats and independents who lean toward Democrats)

• Obama is best candidate 67%
• Would like another candidate to try 30%

I’m going to mention some things some Republican candidates have said or done. For each, please tell me if it would make you more inclined or less inclined to support the candidate or if it would not matter. (Full sample plus oversample of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents)


Wants to dramatically cut the size of the federal government

• More inclined 55%
• Less inclined 26%
• Would not matter 15%

Supports reducing regulations on the private sector

• More inclined 42%
• Less inclined 31%
• Would not matter 19%

Says the tax system should be overhauled with three tax brackets at 8, 14, and 23 percent and eliminate all deductions

• More inclined 39%
• Less inclined 34%
• Would not matter 15%

Says no tax increase is acceptable even in exchange for 10 times as much in spending cuts

• More inclined 29%
• Less inclined 46%
• Would not matter 16%

Opposes gay marriage

• More inclined 28%
• Less inclined 45%
• Would not matter 25%

Says there should be less separation between church and state

• More inclined 27%
• Less inclined 52%
• Would not matter 18%

Says science is not settled on whether human activity is the cause of global warming

• More inclined 25%
• Less inclined 45%
• Would not matter 24%

Says corporations are people

• More inclined 25%
• Less inclined 43%
• Would not matter 23%

Says evolution is an unproven theory

• More inclined 20%
• Less inclined 50%
• Would not matter 25%

Says virtually all abortions should be illegal no matter the circumstances

• More inclined 20%
• Less inclined 64%
• Would not matter 12%

Says the Environmental Protection Agency should be abolished

• More inclined 19%
• Less inclined 66%
• Would not matter 11%

Wants to abolish the Federal Reserve

• More inclined 15%
• Less inclined 60%
• Would not matter 15%

Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry has called Social Security a Ponzi scheme, which is a fraud, and said it is a "monstrous lie" because young people will pay into the system but not be able to collect benefits. Do you agree or disagree?

• Agree 46%
• Disagree 50%

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has proposed to eliminate taxes on capital gains, dividends and interest income for taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of less than $200,000 a year as part of his plan to create new jobs. Do you favor or oppose that?

• Favor 60%
• Oppose 31%

Who do you blame most for what’s gone wrong in Washington—President Obama, the Republicans in Congress, or the Democrats in Congress? (Asked only of those who express negative views of elected officials in Washington)

• Republicans in Congress 45%
• President Obama 20%
• Democrats in Congress 19%

Who do you think has laid out a better vision for a successful economic future for the U.S.—President Obama or the Republicans?

• President Obama 43%
• Republicans 41%

President Barack Obama has proposed a package of tax cuts, spending on public works and aid to local governments that will cost an estimated $447 billion. Do you think that will or will not help lower the unemployment rate?

• Will help 40%
• Will not help 51%

Should the new supercommittee focus more on raising taxes on Americans earning more than $250,000 or more on cutting spending on entitlement programs such as Medicare to meet its goal of trimming an additional $1.5 trillion from the federal debt over the next decade?

• Raising taxes 51%
• Cutting entitlement programs 35%

In your view, is the tea party today a mostly positive or mostly negative force in American politics?

• Mostly positive 37%
• Mostly negative 52%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? (If yes) Do you consider yourself a strong supporter, or just a supporter?

• Strong supporter 7%
• Yes, just a supporter 20%
• No, not a supporter 67%

Turning to the health care bill passed last year, what is your opinion of the law?

• It should be repealed 34%
• It may need small modifications, but we should see how it works 48%
• It should be left alone 12%

Survey of 997 adults, including a subsample of 545 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted September 9-12, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among all adults; +/- 4.2 percentage points among .  Party ID breakdown: 29% {32%} [30%] Democrat; 23% {27%} [22%] Republican; 45% {39%} [44%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted June 17-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.