Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey 

Republican Primary

• Mitt Romney 37% [35%] (41%) {33%} [36%] (40%)
• Herman Cain 12% [2%] (4%) {4%}
• Ron Paul 9% [7%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%)
• Rudy Giuliani 8% [7%] (9%) {6%} [7%] (10%)
• Jon Huntsman 8% [2%] (3%) {4%} [0%]
• Rick Perry 4% [4%]
• Newt Gingrich 4% [1%] (3%) {7%} [4%] (6%)
• Sarah Palin 3% [3%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (6%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% [12%] (4%) {4%} [4%]
• Rick Santorum 2% [1%] (3%) {2%} [0%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [1%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}

Second Choice

• Michele Bachmann 18% [14%] {7%}
• Rudy Giuliani 13% [9%] (10%) {6%}
• Mitt Romney 12% [11%] (14%) {20%}
• Sarah Palin 9% [9%] (9%) {10%}
• Other 19% [28%] (21%)
• No second choice 17% [18%] (27%) {21%}
• Don't know 13% [12%] (14%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 67% [68%] [70%] (73%) / 20% [24%] [21%] (16%) {+47%}
• Herman Cain 49% [32%] / 19% [13%] {+30%}
• Rudy Giuliani 55% [56%] [59%] (59%) / 29% [33%] [29%] (29%) {+26%}
• Ron Paul 45% [40%] [41%] (36%) / 40% [45%] [40%] (35%) {+5%}
• Jon Huntsman 27% [19%] [9%] / 29% [23%] [12%] {-2%}
• Rick Santorum 28% [33%] [31%] (30%) / 30% [21%] [19%] (12%) {-2%}
• Rick Perry 36% [34%] / 43% [15%] {-7%}
• Newt Gingrich 36% [25%] [42%] (41%) / 49% [62%] [44%] (40%) {-13%}
• Gary Johnson 9% [12%] [9%] (6%) / 22% [17%] [14%] (11%) {-13%}
• Michele Bachmann 31% [52%] [26%] / 49% [23%] [29%] {-18%}
• Buddy Roemer 7% [8%] / 25% [17%] {-18%}
• Sarah Palin 30% [41%] [37%] (33%) / 59% [52%] [50%] (50%) {-29%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 70% [75%] [72%] (73%) / 19% [16%] [20%] (13%) {+51%}
• Rudy Giuliani 62% [62%] [63%] (63%) / 23% [25%] [26%] (25%) {+39%}
• Herman Cain 53% [34%] / 17% [14%] {+36%}
• Rick Perry 42% [38%] / 37% [10%] {+5%}
• Rick Santorum 30% [42%] [37%] (34%) / 25% [17%] [17%] (12%) {+5%}
• Ron Paul 42% [40%] [41%] (35%) / 40% [45%] [42%] (35%) {+2%}
• Newt Gingrich 43% [32%] [45%] (48%) / 42% [56%] [41%] (33%) {+1%}
• Michele Bachmann 38% [56%] [27%] / 39% [17%] [28%] {-1%}
• Jon Huntsman 20% [17%] [8%] / 29% [21%] [13%] {-9%}
• Gary Johnson 11% [12%] [6%] (5%) / 23% [16%] [13%] (11%) {-12%}
• Buddy Roemer 8% [7%] / 24% [17%] {-16%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 67% [62%] [69%] (70%) / 20% [31%] [22%] (21%) {+47%}
• Herman Cain 45% [32%] / 20% [12%] {+25%}
• Rudy Giuliani 46% [48%] [55%] (52%) / 36% [42%] [34%] (36%) {+10%}
• Ron Paul 49% [41]% [40%] (39%) / 40% [46%] [39%] (35%) {+9%}
• Jon Huntsman 36% [22%] [10%] / 27% [22%] [11%] {+9%}
• Gary Johnson 7% [13%] [11%] (8%) / 18% [17%] [14%] (11%) {-11%}
• Rick Santorum 24% [25%] [25%] (21%) / 37% [25%] [22%] (12%) {-13%}
• Buddy Roemer 6% [10%] / 23% [17%] {-17%}
• Rick Perry 29% [31%] / 51% [20%] {-22%}
• Newt Gingrich 28% [16%] [38%] (31%) / 54% [69%] [49%] (51%) {-26%}
• Michele Bachmann 21% [47%] [24%] / 62% [31%] [30%] {-41%}

Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? 

• Definitely decided 11% [8%] (8%) {4%}
• Leaning toward someone 21% [17%] (16%) {9%}
• Still trying to decide 68% [75%] (76%) {87%}

Among Romney Supporters

• Definitely decided 13%
  
• Leaning toward someone 26%
  
• Still trying to decide 61%

Which candidate would you not support under any circumstances?

• Sarah Palin 23% [23%]
• Ron Paul 12% [12%]
• Michele Bachmann 12% [5%]
• Rick Perry 11%
• Newt Gingrich 6% [16%]
• Jon Huntsman 5% [3%] 
• Mitt Romney 2% [7%]
• Rudy Giuliani 2% [4%]
• Herman Cain 1%
• Other 2%
• Don't know 24% [24%]

General Election

• Mitt Romney 50% [47%] [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama 42% [43%] [43%] (41%)

• Barack Obama 47%
• Ron Paul 43%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Rick Perry 42%

Survey of 559 likely voters, including 345 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.3 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Almost two-thirds of likely Republican voters (65 percent) believe Romney will win the primary, compared to just 4 percent who believe Paul or Perry will win.

Romney is also considered to have the best shot at defeating President Barack Obama among likely Republican voters. About 52 percent said the former Massachusetts governor had the best chance, followed by Perry at 7 percent, Cain at 5 percent and Paul at 5 percent.

An increasing percentage of undeclared voters are planning to vote in the Republican primary. About 57 percent of independents said they will vote in the Republican primary.