Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Mitt Romney 20% [23%] (26%) {21%} [16%]
• Herman Cain 15% [3%] (7%) {4%}
• Rick Perry 15% [29%] (8%) {3%}
• Chris Christie 10%
• Sarah Palin 8% [14%] (16%) {17%} [5%]
• Ron Paul 7% [8%] (7%) {6%} [2%]
• Newt Gingrich 7% [4%] (4%) {6%} [2%]
• Michele Bachmann 4% [6%] (13%) {3%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (2%) {1%} [0%]
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (3%) {1%} [0%]
• Other 2% [1%] (1%) {3%} [5%]
• No one/None of them 3% [4%] (1%) {5%} [12%]
• Would not vote 0% [1%]
• No opinion 6% [4%] (8%) {14%} [33%]

If Chris Christie doesn't run

• Mitt Romney 23% [23%] (26%) {21%} [16%]
• Herman Cain 17% [3%] (7%) {4%}
• Rick Perry 16% [29%] (8%) {3%}
• Sarah Palin 8% [14%] (16%) {17%} [5%]
• Ron Paul 8% [8%] (7%) {6%} [2%]
• Newt Gingrich 8% [4%] (4%) {6%} [2%]
• Michele Bachmann 4% [6%] (13%) {3%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (2%) {1%} [0%]
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (3%) {1%} [0%]
• Other 2% [1%] (1%) {3%} [5%]
• No one/None of them 4% [4%] (1%) {5%} [12%]
• Would not vote 1% [1%]
• No opinion 6% [4%] (8%) {14%} [33%]

If Chris Christie and Sarah Palin don't run

• Mitt Romney 25% [25%] (30%)
• Herman Cain 17% [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 17% [30%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 9% [10%] (10%) 
• Newt Gingrich 9% [5%] (6%) 
• Michele Bachmann 7% [9%] (17%) 
• Rick Santorum 2% [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (3%)
• Other 2% [2%] (1%) 
• No one/None of them 4% [4%] (2%) 
• Would not vote 1% [1%]
• No opinion 7% [5%] (9%)

Would you like to see Sarah Palin run for the Republican nomination for president, or not? 

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• Yes 31% 
• No 66% 

Would you like to see Chris Christie run for the Republican nomination for president, or not? 

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• Yes 42% 
• No 34% 

Regardless of who you may support, would you say that the more you hear about __________________, the more you like him/her; or the more you hear about ___________________ the less you like him/her?

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

Herman Cain

• More you like 47% 
• Less you like 18% 

Chris Christie 

• More you like 43% 
• Less you like 23% 

Mitt Romney 

• More you like 38% 
• Less you like 35% 

Rick Perry 

• More you like 30% 
• Less you like 44% 

Sarah Palin

• More you like 35% 
• Less you like 49%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mitt Romney 48% [49%] (47%) {49%} [45%]
• Barack Obama 46% [45%] (49%) {46%} [49%]

• Chris Christie 45%
• Barack Obama 45%

• Barack Obama 49% [46%] (53%)
• Rick Perry 46% [47%] (40%)

If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination for president would you definitely vote for him in the general election for president in 2012, would you consider voting for him or would you definitely not vote for him? 

• Definitely would 19% 
• Would consider 37% 
• Definitely would not 37% 

If Rick Perry wins the Republican nomination for president would you definitely vote for him in the general election for president in 2012, would you consider voting for him or would you definitely not vote for him?

• Definitely would 17% 
• Would consider 31% 
• Definitely would not 44%

Obama has announced that he is running for re-election in 2012. Would you say you will definitely vote for him, you’ll consider voting for him, or you definitely will not vote for him?

• Definitely would 23% 
• Would consider 29% 
• Definitely would not 46%

Just your best guess, who do you think will win the presidential election next year - Obama or the Republican candidate? 

• Republican candidate 55% 
• Obama 37%

Say a candidate for president thinks public schools should teach creationism or intelligent design alongside evolution as part of the science curriculum.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 28%
• Less likely 35%
• No difference 33%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 34%
• Less likely 31%
• No difference 32%

Say a candidate for president sees global warming as a problem that needs to be addressed.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 44%
• Less likely 21%
• No difference 34%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 27%
• Less likely 36%
• No difference 36%

Say a candidate for president wants to repeal the new federal health care law that takes effect over the next few years.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 43%
• Less likely 29%
• No difference 21%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 67%
• Less likely 15%
• No difference 13%

Say a candidate for president favors letting states opt out of the Social Security system and replace it with their own retirement programs.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 24%
• Less likely 52%
• No difference 20%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 33%
• Less likely 41%
• No difference 22%

Say a candidate for president supports a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 25%
• Less likely 42%
• No difference 32%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 38%
• Less likely 27%
• No difference 34%

Say a candidate for president supports allowing undocumented immigrants who graduate from a state high-school to qualify for in-state college tuition.  Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who held this position, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? 

• More likely 21%
• Less likely 51%
• No difference 27%

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 

• More likely 11%
• Less likely 69%
• No difference 18%

Survey of registered voters was conducted September 29 - October 2, 2011.  Party ID breakdown: 32% [33%] (32%) {31%} [32%] Democrat; 25% [24%] (26%) {25%} [22%] Republican; 37% [36%] (34%) {39%} [41%] Independent. Political ideology: 41% [37%] (35%) {40%} [36%] Conservative; 36% [39%] (40%) {36%} [39%] Moderate; 20% [20%] (23%) {22%} [21%] Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.