Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Herman Cain 20% [23%] (10%)
• Ron Paul 19% [12%] (7%) 
• Mitt Romney 18% [22%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% [7%] (7%)  
• Rick Perry 7% [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 5% [8%] (22%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [5%] (4%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (2%)

Is your mind made up to support ____________________ or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?

• Mind is made up 29%
• Could be persuaded 60%

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Herman Cain 15%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Rick Perry 11%
• Ron Paul 9% 
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

I'd like to ask about the general election when the Republican nominee will run against Barack Obama. For each of the current candidates I mention, please tell me if you would definitely vote for that person for president, probably vote for that person, might or might not vote for that person, or would you probably not vote for that person.

Mitt Romney

• Definitely 45%
• Probably 20%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 18%

Newt Gingrich

• Definitely 44%
• Probably 19%
• Might or might not 11%
• Probably not 24%

Ron Paul

• Definitely 44%
• Probably 20%
• Might or might not 12%
• Probably not 22%

Herman Cain

• Definitely 45%
• Probably 16%
• Might or might not 13%
• Probably not 24%

Rick Perry

• Definitely 40%
• Probably 18%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 30%

Rick Santorum

• Definitely 40%
• Probably 15%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 31%

Michele Bachmann

• Definitely 38%
• Probably 16%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 34%

Jon Huntsman

• Definitely 34%
• Probably 14%
• Might or might not 9%
• Probably not 39%

In choosing a candidate, which is more important to you: Social and constitutional issues, such as abortion, gay marriage, and gun ownership OR Fiscal issues, such as government spending, taxes, and the economy?

• Fiscal issues 71%
• Social and constitutional issues 24%

Did you participate in the 2008 Republican caucuses? (If yes) Two candidates this year also ran in 2008. Did you vote for either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul in 2008, or for some other candidate?

• Yes, voted for Mitt Romney 14%
• Yes, voted for Ron Paul 9%
• Yes, voted for someone else 27%
• No, did not participate in 2008 31%

Survey of 503 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted November 10-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42% Mostly conservative; 33% Very conservative; 21% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 23-26, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses.