Friday, December 23, 2011

Poll Watch: American Research Group Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ARG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Ron Paul 21% [17%] (16%) {12%} [14%] (3%) 
  • Mitt Romney 20% [17%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%)
  • Newt Gingrich 19% [22%] (27%) {8%} [8%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 9% [13%] (5%) {14%} [2%] 
  • Michele Bachmann 8% [7%] (6%) {15%} [21%] (9%)
  • Jon Huntsman 6% [5%] (3%) {1%} [3%] (0%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% [7%] (6%) {2%} [5%] (2%)
  • Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
  • Other 0% [1%] (0%) {1%} [2%]
  • Undecided 12% [12%] (11%) {15%} [10%] (8%)
Among Likely GOP Caucus-Goers Saying They Will Definitely Participate in the Caucus (83%)
  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Ron Paul 17%
  • Rick Perry 10%
  • Michele Bachmann 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 5%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 12%
Among Republicans (78%)
  • Mitt Romney 21%
  • Newt Gingrich 20%
  • Ron Paul 17%
  • Michele Bachmann 10%
  • Rick Perry 9%
  • Jon Huntsman 5%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 12%
Among Independents (22%)
  • Ron Paul 33%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Newt Gingrich 17%
  • Rick Perry 9%
  • Jon Huntsman 8%
  • Michele Bachmann 1% 
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Rick Santorum 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 13%
Among Tea Party Supporters (32%)
  • Newt Gingrich 29%
  • Ron Paul 17%
  • Mitt Romney 16%
  • Michele Bachmann 11%
  • Rick Perry 11%
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Jon Huntsman 0%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 10%
Among Non-Tea Party Republican Caucus-Goers (42%)
  • Ron Paul 22%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Jon Huntsman 8%
  • Rick Perry 8%
  • Michele Bachmann 7%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Buddy Roemer 2%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 13%
Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (470 Republicans and 130 independents) was conducted December 19-22, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 78% Republican; 22% Independent. Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite 83%; Probably 17%.  Preference by Tea Party support: Supporter 32%; Not/Undecided 42%. Results from the poll conducted December 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-19, 2011 are in parentheses.

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