Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Poll Watch: ISU/Gazette/KCRG Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

ISU/Gazette/KCRG Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Ron Paul 27.5% (20.4%)
  • Newt Gingrich 25.3% (4.8%)
  • Mitt Romney 17.5% (16.3%)
  • Rick Perry 11.2% (7.9%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7.4% (7.6%)
  • Rick Santorum 4.9% (4.7%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.3% (0.0%)
  • Other 0.3% (5.8%)
  • Can't Decide 5.4% (8.1%)
Among Men
  • Newt Gingrich 25.3% (1.7%)
  • Ron Paul 22.3% (22.5%)
  • Mitt Romney 19.9% (17.6%)
  • Rick Perry 12.7% (5.4%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7.2% (9.9%)
  • Rick Santorum 6.0% (6.1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.6% (0.0%)
  • Other 0.6% (5.5%)
  • Can't Decide 5.4% (9.3%)
Among Women
  • Ron Paul 31.7% (18.7%)
  • Newt Gingrich 25.4% (7.3%)
  • Mitt Romney 15.6% (15.2%)
  • Rick Perry 10.2% (9.9%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7.3% (5.7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3.9% (3.4%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.0% (0.0%)
  • Other 0.0% (6.9%)
  • Can't Decide 5.4% (7.1%)
Second Choice
  • Mitt Romney 18.6%
  • Newt Gingrich 16.2%
  • Michele Bachmann 9.2%
  • Rick Santorum 8.9%
  • Rick Perry 8.8%
  • Ron Paul 7.7%
  • Jon Huntsman 0.5%
  • Other 1.0%
  • Can't Decide 23.7%
Survey of 333 likely caucus-goers was conducted December 8-18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 1-13, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
With less than two week to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses, the race still remains remarkably fluid. Asked how certain they were of their choice, 37.8 percent of respondents indicated that they were still trying to decide and another 34.1 percent answered that they were only leaning towards one candidate. Only 28.1 percent indicated that they had definitely decided who they would support.

The survey asked respondents to select the most important factor in motivating their support for a candidate. The most popular response was for a candidate who "takes strong stands" (32.0 percent), followed by a candidate who "can win the general election" (24.7 percent), and a candidate who "has the right experience" (24.4 percent). Paul did well on taking strong stances and the right experience, and even better on a fourth factor that he "cares about people."

Gingrich did well on each of the three most frequently mentioned factors, but he did the best with the experience and electable factors. Romney scored best among the respondents on the experience and electable factors, although he was behind Gingrich on both of them.

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