PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey
Second Choice
Survey of 572 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 3-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 80% Republican; 14% Independent/Other; 6% Democrat. Political ideology: 40% {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 37% {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 15% {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 5% {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.
- Newt Gingrich 27% {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
- Ron Paul 18% {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
- Mitt Romney 16% {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
- Michele Bachmann 13% {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
- Rick Perry 9% {9%} [22%]
- Rick Santorum 6% {5%} [5%]
- Jon Huntsman 4% {1%} [3%] (1%)
- Gary Johnson 1% {1%}
- Someone else/Not sure 7% {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}
- Strongly committed to that candidate 55%
- Might end up supporting someone else 45%
Strongly Committed to Candidate
- Newt Gingrich 25%
- Ron Paul 22%
- Mitt Romney 20%
- Michele Bachmann 15%
- Rick Perry 7%
- Rick Santorum 5%
- Jon Huntsman 5%
- Gary Johnson 2%
Might End Up Supporting Someone Else
- Newt Gingrich 32%
- Ron Paul 16%
- Michele Bachmann 14%
- Rick Perry 14%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- Rick Santorum 7%
- Jon Huntsman 4%
- Gary Johnson 0%
- Newt Gingrich 17% {17%}
- Mitt Romney 13% {11%}
- Rick Perry 11% {12%}
- Michele Bachmann 10% {11%}
- Ron Paul 10% {9%}
- Rick Santorum 9% {5%}
- Jon Huntsman 5% {3%}
- Gary Johnson 2% {1%}
- Someone else/Not sure 22% {15%}
- Newt Gingrich 62% {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 31% {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {+31%}
- Rick Santorum 51% {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 28% {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+23%}
- Michele Bachmann 56% {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 35% {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+21%}
- Ron Paul 52% {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+14%}
- Mitt Romney 49% {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 45% {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
- Rick Perry 44% {38%} [56%] (21%) / 46% {41%} [24%] (16%) {-2%}
- Jon Huntsman 30% {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 45% {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-15%}
- Michele Bachmann 71% / 24% {+47%}
- Rick Santorum 59% / 23% {+36%}
- Newt Gingrich 63% / 30% {+33%}
- Rick Perry 47% / 45% {+2%}
- Ron Paul 44% / 50% {-6%}
- Mitt Romney 36% / 60% {-24%}
- Jon Huntsman 22% / 56% {-34%}
- Newt Gingrich 60% / 33% {+27%}
- Ron Paul 55% / 35% {+20%}
- Mitt Romney 55% / 38% {+17%}
- Rick Santorum 48% / 33% {+15%}
- Michele Bachmann 47% / 44% {+3%}
- Jon Huntsman 36% / 41% {-5%}
- Rick Perry 42% / 49% {-7%}
- Newt Gingrich 33%
- Mitt Romney 23%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Michele Bachmann 7%
- Rick Perry 7%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 14%
- Yes 32% {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
- No 58% {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}
- A candidate's ability to beat Obama 34%
- Their issue positions 57%
- Yes 55%
- No 21%
- Not sure 23%
- Yes 52%
- No 21%
- Not sure 28%
- Government spending, reducing the debt 43%
- Jobs/economy 27%
- Social issues 9%
- Taxes 4%
- Illegal immigration 3%
- Foreign policy/national security 3%
- Favorable 33%
- Unfavorable 25%
- Not sure 42%
Survey of 572 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 3-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 80% Republican; 14% Independent/Other; 6% Democrat. Political ideology: 40% {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 37% {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 15% {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 5% {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.
Inside the numbers:
- Gingrich leads Romney 35-4 with Iowa Tea Partiers
- Newt's favorability is 54/38 with Iowa Republicans who would have 'major concerns' about a candidate who cheated on spouse
- Iowa Republicans who have seen a candidate in person: Paul 27, Gingrich 22, Romney 17
- Only 48% of Iowa Republicans who say they voted for Mitt in the 2008 Caucus are supporting him again this time
- Perry with voters who haven't paid a lot of attention to debates in Iowa: 17%. With those who have paid a lot of attention: 3%
- Gingrich's strength in Iowa is with seniors (37%) and the Tea Party (35%). Romney at only 4% with TP
- Why hasn't Santorum ever gotten any momentum? Only 9% say social issues are most important thing to them
- Top issue for Iowa Republicans is gov't spending and the deficit. Romney is only 4th with those voters
- Paul is winning voters under 45 (23-21 over Newt) and non-Republicans (28-18 over Newt) in Iowa
- Gingrich may be ok on immigration- only 29% support deporting those who have been here for 25 years
- The good news for Mitt: 66% of his supporters are strongly committed, only 49% of Gingrich's are
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