Monday, December 05, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey
  • Newt Gingrich 27% {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
  • Ron Paul 18% {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
  • Mitt Romney 16% {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
  • Michele Bachmann 13% {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
  • Rick Perry 9% {9%} [22%]
  • Rick Santorum 6% {5%} [5%]
  • Jon Huntsman 4% {1%} [3%] (1%)
  • Gary Johnson 1% {1%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
  • Strongly committed to that candidate 55%
  • Might end up supporting someone else 45%
Strongly Committed to Candidate
  • Newt Gingrich 25%
  • Ron Paul 22%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Michele Bachmann 15%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Jon Huntsman 5%
  • Gary Johnson 2%
Might End Up Supporting Someone Else
  • Newt Gingrich 32%
  • Ron Paul 16%
  • Michele Bachmann 14%
  • Rick Perry 14%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Rick Santorum 7%
  • Jon Huntsman 4%
  • Gary Johnson 0%
Second Choice 
  • Newt Gingrich 17% {17%}
  • Mitt Romney 13% {11%}
  • Rick Perry 11% {12%}
  • Michele Bachmann 10% {11%}
  • Ron Paul 10% {9%}
  • Rick Santorum 9% {5%}
  • Jon Huntsman 5% {3%}
  • Gary Johnson 2% {1%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 22% {15%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Newt Gingrich 62% {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 31% {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {+31%}
  • Rick Santorum 51% {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 28% {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+23%}
  • Michele Bachmann 56% {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 35% {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+21%}
  • Ron Paul 52% {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+14%}
  • Mitt Romney 49% {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 45% {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
  • Rick Perry 44% {38%} [56%] (21%) / 46% {41%} [24%] (16%) {-2%}
  • Jon Huntsman 30% {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 45% {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-15%}
Tea Party Members
  • Michele Bachmann 71% / 24% {+47%}
  • Rick Santorum 59% / 23% {+36%}
  • Newt Gingrich 63% / 30% {+33%}
  • Rick Perry 47% / 45% {+2%}
  • Ron Paul 44% / 50% {-6%}
  • Mitt Romney 36% / 60% {-24%}
  • Jon Huntsman 22% / 56% {-34%}
Non-Tea Party Republicans
  • Newt Gingrich 60% / 33% {+27%}
  • Ron Paul 55% / 35% {+20%}
  • Mitt Romney 55% / 38% {+17%
  • Rick Santorum 48% / 33% {+15%} 
  • Michele Bachmann 47% / 44% {+3%} 
  • Jon Huntsman 36% / 41% {-5%}
  • Rick Perry 42% / 49% {-7%
    Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
    • Newt Gingrich 33%
    • Mitt Romney 23%
    • Ron Paul 9%
    • Michele Bachmann 7%
    • Rick Perry 7%
    • Jon Huntsman 3%
    • Rick Santorum 2%
    • Gary Johnson 1%
    • Someone else/Not sure 14%
    Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
    • Yes 32% {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
    • No 58% {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}
    What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?
    • A candidate's ability to beat Obama 34%
    • Their issue positions 57%
    Will you vote for Newt Gingrich in the general election if he is the Republican nominee, or not?
    • Yes 55%
    • No 21%
    • Not sure 23%
    Will you vote for Mitt Romney in the general election if he is the Republican nominee, or not?
    • Yes 52%
    • No 21%
    • Not sure 28%
    Which of the following things is most important to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the economy, government spending and reducing the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign policy and national security?
    • Government spending, reducing the debt 43%
    • Jobs/economy 27%
    • Social issues 9%
    • Taxes 4%
    • Illegal immigration 3%
    • Foreign policy/national security 3%
    Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Mormon faith?
    • Favorable 33%
    • Unfavorable 25%
    • Not sure 42%
    Note: Mitt Romney's net favorability among Iowa GOPers with a favorable opinion of the Mormon faith: +31%; Romney's net favorability among those with an unfavorable opinion of the Mormon faith: -36%. Among those with a favorable opinion of the Mormon faith, 77% will vote for Romney in the general election if he is the GOP nominee.  However, among Iowan Republicans with an unfavorable opinion of the Mormon faith, just 40% say they will vote for Romney, while 43% say they would not vote for Romney in the general election if he were to win the Republican nomination.


    Survey of 572 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 3-5, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 80% Republican; 14% Independent/Other; 6% Democrat.  Political ideology: 40% {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 37% {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 15% {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 5% {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.

    Inside the numbers:

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