Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Newt Gingrich 22% (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Ron Paul 21% (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 16% (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 9% (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 8% (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 5% (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 1% (1%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 60% (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 40% (45%)

Second Choice 

• Newt Gingrich 14% (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 13% (13%) {11%}
• Ron Paul 12% (10%) {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 10% (11%) {12%}
• Rick Santorum 8% (9%) {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% (5%) {3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% (2%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 25% (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ron Paul 61% (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 31% (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+30%}
• Michele Bachmann 55% (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 37% (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
• Rick Santorum 49% (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 33% (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+16%}
• Newt Gingrich 52% (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 40% (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {+12%}
• Mitt Romney 48% (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 44% (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+4%}
• Rick Perry 43% (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 47% (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {-4%}
• Jon Huntsman 28% (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 43% (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-15%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Newt Gingrich 30% (33%)
• Mitt Romney 21% (23%)
• Ron Paul 14% (9%)
• Rick Perry 7% (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (3%)
• Gary Johnson 1% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 16% (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Republican nomination for President?

• Newt Gingrich 26%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Someone else/Not sure 31%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 27% (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 61% (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 32% (34%)
• Their issue positions 56% (57%)

Do you support or oppose gays openly serving in the military?

• Support 28%
• Oppose 41%
• Not sure 31%

Do you believe that there’s a ‘War on Christmas,’ or not?

• There is a War on Christmas 46%
• There is not 24%
• Not sure 30%

Survey of 555 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 78% (80%) Republican; 17% (14%) Independent/Other; 4% (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 42% (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 35% (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 4% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal; 3% (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.