Poll Watch: Marketing Resource Group Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

MRG Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 43% (2%) 
• Mitt Romney 33% (40%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% (8%)
• Ron Paul 8% (5%)
• Undecided 5% (17%)

Survey of 800 definite Michigan Republican primary voters was conducted February 13-14, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-19, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

The poll showed a large difference between men and women as Santorum leads Romney by eighteen percent (43 percent Santorum – 25 percent Romney) among males while the vote among females is virtually tied (38 percent Santorum – 37 percent Romney).

Forty-seven percent (47%) of poll respondents considered themselves “strong supporters of the tea party movement, while 34 percent are not strong supporters. Santorum had a twenty-nine point lead (51 percent Santorum – 22 percent Romney) among tea party supporters, while Romney led by thirteen percent (42 percent Romney – 29 percent Santorum) among voters who were not tea party supporters.

Santorum leads among all age groups except for senior citizens, (38 percent Romney –35 percent Santorum) where the Romney family name appears to carry more weight.

Romney leads Santorum by seven percent (39 percent Romney – 32 percent Santorum) among those most concerned about the economy, but Santorum held a twenty point lead (47 percent Santorum – 27 percent Romney) among those focused on spending issues and a forty-five (64 percent Santorum – 19 percent Romney) percent lead among those focused on social issues.

Geographically, the poll shows Santorum leading in every media market in the state from the three percent in the Lansing Media Market (37 percent Santorum – 34 percent Romney) to a forty-five percent lead in the sparsely populated Upper Peninsula (60 percent Santorum – 15 percent Romney). Santorum leads Romney by sixteen percent in Grand Rapids/West Michigan area (46 percent Santorum – 30 percent Romney), by eighteen percent in the Traverse City market (43 percent Santorum – 25 percent Romney) and by four percent in the Flint/Saginaw Bay city market (38 percent Santorum – 34 percent Romney) in the state’s largest market, Santorum leads Romney by six percent in the Metro Detroit area (38 percent Santorum – 34 percent Romney). A closer look at the Detroit area shows Romney leading by nine percent in Oakland County where he was born and raised (38 percent Romney – 30 percent Santorum) and tied with Santorum in Macomb County (32 percent for both).