Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 42% [39%] (48%)
• Rick Santorum 29% [31%] (13%) 
• Newt Gingrich 16% [15%] (24%)
• Ron Paul 8% [7%] (6%)
• Some other candidate 1% [3%] (2%)
• Undecided 3% [5%] (6%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 78% [70%] (53%)
• Could change mind 20% [26%] (42%)
• No preference yet 3% [5%] (6%)

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 52% [46%]
• Rick Santorum 40% [45%]

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 68% [67%] (77%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [20%]

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 51% [50%] (59%)
• Rick Santorum 20% [23%]
• Newt Gingrich 18% (24%)
• Ron Paul 6%

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum continues to lead Romney by three among very conservative GOP voters in the state, but Romney has widened his lead among those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative to a near two-to-one margin. 

Similarly, Santorum maintains a small lead among Tea Party voters but has lost ground among those who are not members of the grass roots movement. 

Last week, Santorum held just a five-point lead among Evangelical Christian Republicans in Arizona. Now that lead has grown to 12 points. But Romney, down four among Catholic voters a week ago, is up 20 points among that group now. He’s also grown his lead among other Protestants and remains well ahead among GOP voters of other faiths. 

Eighty percent (80%) say Romney is at least somewhat likely to defeat the president. Sixty-three percent (63%) and 56% percent say the same of Santorum and Gingrich respectively. Only 19% believe Paul is likely to beat Obama. 

There’s been little or no change in Romney’s numbers on these questions since the last survey, but Santorum appears to have lost some ground to Gingrich. 

Seventy-four percent (74%) share a favorable opinion of Romney, while 70% view Santorum favorably. That’s basically unchanged for Romney but an eight-point drop for the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 60%, Paul by just 37%.