Poll Watch: Rasmussen Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 38% (40%) {34%} [32%] (38%)
• Rick Santorum 36% (34%) {38%} [35%] (17%) 
• Ron Paul 11% (10%) {10%} [13%] (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% (9%) {9%} [11%] (23%) 

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 68% (60%) {57%} [52%] (52%)
• Could change mind 27% (34%) {35%} [40%] (41%)

Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 46% (44%) {40%} [37%]
• Rick Santorum 45% (46%) {47%} [49%]

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 63% (62%) {56%} [61%] (76%)
• Rick Santorum 26% (23%) {31%} [16%]

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 45% (49%)
• Rick Santorum 29% (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 7%

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum leads by 15 points among Tea Party Republicans. Romney holds a similar lead among GOP voters in the state who say they are not members of the grass roots movement.

Very Conservative voters prefer Santorum over Romney by a 51% to 28% margin. Romney leads 44% to 30% among those who describe themselves as Somewhat Conservative.

Santorum is ahead 48% to 27% among Evangelical Christian primary voters and now holds a slightly lead among Catholics. Romney is leads 52% to 29% among other Protestants and posts a double-digit lead among primary voters of other faiths.

Seventy-one percent (71%) have a favorable opinion of Santorum and 68% say the same of Romney. The level of enthusiasm for both candidates is similar: 29% hold a Very Favorable view of Santorum; 25% say the same of Romney. Those figures are little changed over the past week.

Forty-seven percent (47%) share a favorable opinion of Gingrich, 46% of Paul.

Unchanged since Thursday are the 73% who think Romney is at least somewhat likely to beat President Obama versus 59% who believe Santorum can do the same.