Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 51% {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (49%) {46%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 45% {48%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [49%] (47%) {49%} [45%]

• Barack Obama 54% {52%} [51%] {50%} [54%]
• Newt Gingrich 43% {40%} [43%] {44%} [39%]

Regardless of whom you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job:

Handling the Economy

• Mitt Romney 50%
• Barack Obama 44%

Creating Jobs

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 46%

Handling Taxes

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 45%

Handling the Federal Budget Deficit

• Mitt Romney 52%
• Barack Obama 39%

Protecting the Middle Class

• Barack Obama 56%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Handling International Affairs

• Barack Obama 55%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Handling Terrorism

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Regardless of whom you might support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having?

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Based on his performance in office so far, would you say Obama deserves a second term as president, or not?

• Yes 49%
• No 49%

Obama's Ratings

Overall Job Performance

• Approve 50%
• Disapprove 47%

Economy

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 54%

Creating Jobs

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 52%

Taxes

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 49%

Budget Deficit

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 61%

Survey of 879 registered voters was conducted February 1-4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 31 - November 3, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets. 

Inside the numbers:

Overall, 55 percent of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying. By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him. Even among Republicans, as many offer negative as positive assessments of him on this question. Judgments about former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who denounced Romney on Saturday night in Nevada, are about 3 to 1 negative.

Meanwhile, the president’s recent remarks are better reviewed. Among the roughly 6 in 10 Americans who heard or read about the president’s State of the Union address, 57 percent say they approve of most of what he laid out.

Among political independents, who are likely to determine the outcome of the election, 47 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his job. The president’s approval rating among independents had dipped as low as 34 percent in the fall, and just a month ago, he faced a 10-point deficit here.

Obama’s momentum since mid-January has evened the score with Romney among political independents. Among independent voters in the last Post-ABC poll, Romney held a 12-point edge; now these voters split 48 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Romney.

About nine in 10 people still rate the economy negatively, and among independents, 50 percent view this as a big strike against Obama’s reelection bid; far fewer, 33 percent, say it is a good reason to back his candidacy.

In contrast, by nearly 5 to 1, independents are more apt to view Romney’s business experience as a reason to support rather than oppose him.

However, his private-equity experience is a mixed blessing for him. The poll suggests that he has considerable work left to do to turn his business biography into a clear asset. One indicator: Thirty-three percent of all independents say Romney’s work in private business helped create jobs, 34 percent say it did more to eliminate jobs and 33 percent expressed no opinion.

Romney’s wealth also divides the public. Among all Americans, 43 percent see his fortune — estimated at $250 million — as a “positive” because it suggests that he has achieved the American dream. But just as many, 44 percent, consider his wealth a “negative” because it suggests that he benefited from opportunities that are not available to most people.

Romney is vulnerable on the issue of personal taxes. The former governor released his tax returns two weeks ago, showing that he paid an effective tax rate of about 14 percent. Two-thirds of all Americans say they do not think he is paying his fair share.

Fully 68 percent view the federal tax system as stacked in favor of the wealthy, not the middle class. More than seven in 10 support increasing the taxes of those earning more than $1 million a year — an idea the president has long pushed.