Poll Watch: American Research Group Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG 2012 Tennessee GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 35% (34%) 
• Mitt Romney 31% (27%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% (16%)
• Ron Paul 9% (13%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 4% (9%)

Early Vote: (19%)

• Rick Santorum 47%
• Mitt Romney 35%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Ron Paul 7%

Will Vote: (81%)

• Rick Santorum 32%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 6%

Among Republicans: 76% (70%)

• Rick Santorum 35% (36%) 
• Mitt Romney 28% (28%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% (21%)
• Ron Paul 8% (5%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 3% (9%)

Among Independents: 24% (30%)

• Mitt Romney 40% (25%) 
• Rick Santorum 34% (28%) 
• Ron Paul 12% (31%) 
• Newt Gingrich 6% (3%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 7% (12%)

Among Tea Party Supporters: 57% (42%)

• Rick Santorum 43% (40%) 
• Newt Gingrich 30% (21%)
• Mitt Romney 17% (17%) 
• Ron Paul 5% (11%)
• Other 0% (0%)
• Undecided 5% (11%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters: 43% (58%)

• Mitt Romney 49% (34%) 
• Rick Santorum 24% (29%) 
• Ron Paul 14% (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% (12%)
• Other 2% (2%)
• Undecided 3% (9%)

Among Men: 52%

• Rick Santorum 36% 
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Among Women: 48%

• Mitt Romney 35% 
• Rick Santorum 33% 
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters (455 Republicans, 89 independents, and 56 Democrats) was conducted March 1-3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 8-9, 2012 are in parentheses.