Poll Watch: Rasmussen Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Tennessee 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 7%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 59%
• Could change mind 35%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Rick Santorum 25%
• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Ron Paul 4%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of primary voters in Tennessee expect to vote for the Republican candidate no matter who wins the nomination. That includes 94% of Gingrich supporters, 83% of Santorum voters and 81% of those planning to vote for Romney. Just 51% of Paul supporters expect to support the GOP candidate if their man doesn’t get the nod.

Regardless of who they want to win the nomination, 70% think Romney will be the nominee, while only 16% expect Santorum to win.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 70% of likely Republican primary voters in the state. Sixty-four percent (64%) say the same of Romney, and 58% offer positive reviews of Gingrich. For Paul, most reviews (60%) are negative. Just 35% hold a positive view of the congressman from Texas.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Tennessee primary voters say the ability to win in November is more important than finding the candidate who best represents Republican values. Forty-three percent (43%) hold the opposite view. Among those who see party values as most important, Santorum leads Romney 42% to 20%, with Gingrich picking up 19% of the vote. Among those who see electability as the top priority, it’s Romney 41%, Santorum 27% and Gingrich 19%.

Santorum leads Romney by a 51% to 14% margin among very conservative voters. However, among those who are somewhat conservative, Romney leads 38% to 26%. Among all other primary voters, Romney leads by 27 percentage points.