Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 40% {27%} [34%] (28%) {30%} [29%] (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%) 
• Rick Santorum 24% {39%} [18%] (16%) {15%} [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}    
  
• Newt Gingrich 16% {15%} [27%] (35%) {27%} [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 12% {10%} [11%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 50% {34%} [50%]
• Rick Santorum 38% {55%} [38%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 51% {45%}
• Could change mind 43% {49%}
• No preference yet 6% {9%}

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted February 29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 14, 2012 are in curly brackets.    Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Three-out-of-four likely GOP primary voters nationwide (75%) now think Romney will win the party’s nomination. That’s up 11 points from two weeks ago and back to the level measured in early February. Just 12% believe Santorum will be the eventual nominee.

Perhaps part of the explanation for Romney’s return to the top is the finding that despite conservative dissatisfaction with him, 55% of primary voters think it’s more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating President Obama than it is to choose one who does the best job of representing GOP values. Thirty-eight percent (38%) put more emphasis on a candidate who best represents the party’s values.

Among voters who think it’s more important to pick the best candidate against Obama, Romney leads Santorum handily 51% to 19%, with Gingrich at 18%. But even among those who think it’s more important to pick a candidate who best represents the party’s values, Santorum holds just a 33% to 28% lead over Romney.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all primary voters say Romney would be the strongest candidate against Obama. That, too, is up from two weeks ago and back to the level it was at in early February. Eighteen percent (18%) think Santorum would be the strongest challenger, and nearly as many (16%) believe that of Gingrich. Only seven percent (7%) feel Paul has the best shot.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of likely primary voters nationally view Romney favorably, while 63% share a favorable opinion of Santorum. That’s a five-point improvement for Romney and a 12-point drop for Santorum from the previous survey. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 56% and Paul by 41%, marking virtually no change for either man from two weeks ago.

Romney and Paul remain the candidates considered least conservative by most GOP primary voters. Eighty-four percent (84%) rate Santorum at least somewhat conservative, and 72% think the same of Gingrich. Romney is considered at least somewhat conservative by 58%, and Paul is seen that way by 57%. But while Santorum is seen as Very Conservative by 49%, only eight percent (8%) view Romney that way.

Romney now posts a narrow lead among Tea Party voters after trailing Santorum dramatically among these voters two weeks ago. He also leads again by a sizable margin among primary voters who are not Tea Party members.

Santorum leads by six among  very conservative voters but trails Romney by nearly 30 points among those who say they are somewhat conservative.

The former Pennsylvania senator also still holds a 10-point lead among Evangelical Christians but runs second by wide margins among other Protestants, Catholics and primary voters of other faiths.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican primary voters nationally say they are now certain of their vote. Forty-three percent (43%) say they still could change their minds.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) say they will vote for the Republican nominee even if their favorite doesn’t win. Nine percent (9%) will vote for Obama in that case, and seven percent (7%) will opt for a third party candidate.