Poll Watch: Rasmussen Ohio 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Ohio 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 33% (42%)
• Mitt Romney 31% (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% (13%)
• Ron Paul 11% (10%)
• Some other candidate 2% (3%)
• Undecided 8% (8%)

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 43% (58%)
• Mitt Romney 43% (30%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 57% (46%)
• Could change mind 35% (47%)

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 45% (35%)
• Rick Santorum 25% (34%)
• Newt Gingrich 16%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 70% (55%)
• Rick Santorum 16% (26%)

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum leads by 20 among very conservative voters, while Romney has an 18-point advantage among those who are somewhat conservative.

Santorum leads among those who earn between $20,000 and $75,000 annually. Romney leads among other income groups.

Given a choice, 49% in Ohio say it’s more important to find a candidate who can beat Obama, while 42% prefer someone who does the best job representing Republican values. Santorum leads by 27 among those who are looking for someone to represent GOP values, while Romney leads by 19 among those who see electability as most important.

Overall, 67% have a favorable opinion of Santorum, and 66% say the same about Romney. For Santorum, those numbers represent an eight-point decline, while Romney’s numbers are a two-point improvement. Fifty-four percent (54%) offer favorable reviews of Gingrich, but just 38% are that upbeat about Paul.