Western New England College Massachusetts 2012 Senate Poll
- Scott Brown (R) 49% [47%] (51%)
- Elizabeth Warren (D) 41% [42%] (34%)
Brown's support, classified by party identification, shows that while 94 percent of Republicans polled said Brown is the ideal candidate for the job, 22 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independents also agreed.
Warren drew support form 70 percent of Democrats polled as well as 29 percent of Independents and four percent of Republicans.
Female voters approved of the job that Brown is doing as senator by a margin of 50 percent to 28 percent in the latest survey, compared to a 47 percent job approval rating and a 31 percent disapproval rating among women in the fall survey.
In a breakdown of the state's various regions, Warren led in Boston and its suburbs with 48 percent support compared to Brown's 46 percent. In Western and Central Massachusetts, Brown led Warren 44-42 percent and 46-40 percent, respectively.
In the north and south shores, which were considered one category in the survey, Brown's lead was greater – he pulled support from 54 percent of those surveyed compared to Warren with 33 percent.
And on the age-scale, in a somewhat surprising twist, Brown pulled 58 percent of voters ages 18-29 compared to Warren's 29 percent. Fifty percent of voters ages 30-49 are supporting Brown while 38 percent are supporting Warren.
But the consumer advocate remains popular with those ages 50-64, as 52 percent are pushing for Warren compared to Brown's 40 percent.
Of the 65-and-older category, 49 percent said they are supporting Brown while 42 percent are supporting Warren.
Compared to the university's late fall poll, Brown's overall favorability rating fell from 52 to 47 percent. His favorability among Republicans dipped five points to 85 percent, and his Independent support also dropped from 61-58 percent.
But among those who identify as Democrats, Brown's favorability climbed from 23 to 27 percent.
Warren's overall favorability and unfavorability each climbed four points to 37 and 20 percent of those surveyed, mirroring the trend of Democratic opinions of her. Her favorability among Republicans climbed one point to 11 percent while it dropped five points among Independents to 28 percent.
Warren has become better known among voters since the fall survey, when nearly half of registered voters said they hadn’t heard of her or did not have an opinion of her. About one-third of voters offered those responses in the latest survey.
Twenty-one percent of voters said they had not heard of Brown, or did not have an opinion of him, up two percentage points from the fall survey.
Brown, who has had two years to prove himself to the people of Massachusetts since winning the special election following the death of longtime Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, holds a 54 percent job approval rating, according to the latest poll.
His approval among Republicans and independents is steady at 88 and 58 percent with 39 percent of Democrats surveyed agreeing that they approve of his job performance.
In terms of likelihood that voters may change their minds, almost one-third of the sample says they might change their minds between now and Election Day. When breaking down the numbers by candidate, Warren's support seems a bit more solid than Brown's, with 72 percent saying very sure compared to 66 percent for Brown. It is worth noting that 40 percent of independents still might change their minds.
Rasmussen: Scott Brown 49%, Elizabeth Warren 44%; 500 likely voters; MoE: +/- 4.5%; February 29.
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