Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ 2012 Presidential Poll

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 47% [49%] {50%} (49%) [47%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {48%} [49%] {49%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney 43% [43%] {44%} (43%) [45%] {43%} (44%) [45%] {41%} [43%] {40%} [40%]

(Among Obama Voters) Would you definitely vote for Barack Obama, probably vote for Barack Obama but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Obama?

• Definitely vote for Obama 73% [74%]
• Probably vote for Obama, but still thinking about it 13% [13%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Obama 13% [12%]

(Among Romney Voters) Would you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, probably vote for Mitt Romney but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for Romney?

• Definitely vote for Romney 72% [65%]
• Probably vote for Romney, but still thinking about it 14% [16%]
• Just leaning toward voting for Romney 14% [19%]

Definitely Vote for Candidate

• Barack Obama 34% [37%]
• Mitt Romney 31% [28%]

Rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 32% [30%] {28%} (28%) [22%] {26%} (23%) [24%] [27%] [28%] {28%} (29%) [25%]
• Somewhat positive 17% [18%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {19%} (23%) [20%] [22%] [22%] {21%} (23%) [23%]
• Neutral 10% [13%] {14%} (10%) [13%] {15%} (14%) [12%] [14%] [14%] {15%} (15%) [14%]
• Somewhat negative 12% [13%] {12%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (12%) [14%] [13%] [13%] {15%} (14%) [14%]
• Very negative 29% [26%] {25%} (25%) [27%] {27%} (28%) [30%] [24%] [23%] {20%} (18%) [24%]

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 10% [10%] {6%} (6%) [4%] {5%} (6%) [5%] [7%] {6%} [10%]
• Somewhat positive 24% [23%] {22%} (25%) [20%] {21%} (21%) [19%] [20%] {19%} [18%]
• Neutral 23% [26%] {28%} (26%) [30%] {32%} (30%) [32%] [30%] {30%} [30%]
• Somewhat negative 19% [18%] {20%} (21%) [21%] {17%} (17%) [18%] [16%] {13%} [10%]
• Very negative 19% [18%] {19%} (15%) [11%] {13%} (12%) [11%] [10%] {12%} [10%]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 46%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 52%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 51%
• Disapprove 42%

How confident are you that Barack Obama has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy?

• Extremely confident 13%
• Quite confident 19%
• Only somewhat confident 26%
• Not at all confident 41%

How confident are you that Mitt Romney has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy?

• Extremely confident 7%
• Quite confident 12%
• Only somewhat confident 40%
• Not at all confident 36%

Survey of 1,000 adults, including a subsample of 840 registered voters, was conducted May 16-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among adults.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-17, 2012 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers: 

Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).