Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 49% (51%) [50%] {44%} (42%) [43%] {43%} (41%)
  • Mitt Romney 45% (42%) [40%] {47%} (50%) [47%] {50%} (49%)
Survey of 470 likely voters was conducted July 5-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 25 - February 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
The poll shows the candidates have locked up their party bases, with 89 percent of Democrats saying they will vote for Obama and 86 percent of Republicans saying they plant to vote for Romney. Independents are split evenly, with 41 percent favoring Romney and 40 percent supporting Obama.

Women said they prefer Obama by a margin of 14 percentage points, while men favor Romney by just 6 percentage points.

Among those who said they have definitely decided who they will vote for, Obama leads Romney 52 to 47 percent.

Obama's approval ratings have declined slightly in recent months, the poll showed. Currently, 47 percent of New Hampshire adults approve of the job he's doing, compared to 48 percent who disapprove.

The president's approval ratings show a partisan split, with 87 percent of Democrats approving of the job he has done, compared to 41 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans.

Obama's favorability ratings have also slid, with 47 percent of adults saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 47 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him.

The president is still more popular than Romney, however, with 38 percent of New Hampshire adults having a favorable opinion of him, compared to 47 percent with an unfavorable opinion of him.

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