Poll Watch: Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 42%
• Undecided 7%

Among Men

• Barack Obama 47%
• Mitt Romney 46%
• Undecided 7% 

Among Women

• Barack Obama 55%
• Mitt Romney 39%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 53% / 47% {+6%}
• Mitt Romney 43% / 50% {-7%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama has handled his job as president?

• Approve 53%
• Disapprove 45%

Survey of 601 likely voters was conducted August 21-23, 2012 by Global Strategy Group (D) and National Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of poll respondents said they believed Obama would win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes; only 29 percent said they thought Romney would.

Obama led among all age groups, with his strongest edge among those 45 to 64. He led among those with a college education and those without.

Eighty-five percent of black respondents said they would vote for Obama. Among whites, the split was 46 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney, a statistical tie.

Obama's lead was largely built on his strength in Philadelphia, the state's largest city, in which he was ahead by almost 8-1.

In the crucial Philadelphia suburbs of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties, all of which voted for Obama in 2008, he led, but by just three points. That is well within the higher margin of error, plus or minus 8.6 percent, for polling in those four counties.