Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 51% {55%} [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {35%} [36%] (33%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 60.6% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 39.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 56% {54%} [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 23% {27%} [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 22% {19%} [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 95.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 4.7% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 38% {36%} [41%] (38%) 
• Democrats 37% {41%} [36%] (39%)
• Not sure 24% {24%} [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 67.0% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 22.8% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 19-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats (81%) remain more confident than Republicans (70%) that their party’s candidate will be the eventual winner. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties think the president will win by a 47% to 40% margin. Two weeks ago, unaffiliated voters predicted an Obama win 54% to 33%.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of GOP voters expect their party to continue to control the House, and 52% of unaffiliated voters agree. Democrats are almost evenly divided on this question.

Voters in both parties are equally confident their side will be in charge of the Senate next year. Unaffiliateds give a slight edge to the Republicans, but a plurality (41%) of these voters are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all likely voters are excited about the choice between Romney and Obama. However, nearly one-in-three (32%) still say they will be voting for the lesser of two evils. That’s unchanged from the previous survey. Republicans and Democrats are equally enthusiastic about the choice, while unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Also largely unchanged from the earlier surveys is the belief by 52% of voters that Romney and the president disagree on most important issues, while another 33% thinks they disagree on just about everything. Only 11% believe they agree on most issues.

Voters under 40 are less enthusiastic about the choice between Obama and Romney than their elders are.

Those with health insurance are less confident that Obama will win than are voters who aren’t insured.