Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% (48%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [49%] (46%) 
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 49% (48%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (49%)
Among Democrats
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 91% (89%) {90%} [91%] (87%) {89%} [90%] (85%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 7% (7%) {5%} [4%] (9%) {7%} [6%] (11%)
Among Republicans
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 93% (91%) {94%} [93%] (92%) {91%} [92%] (92%)
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 5% (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
Among Independents
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% (54%) {55%} [54%] (52%) {50%} [50%] (49%)
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 42% (41%) {39%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (44%)
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 55% (56%) {57%} [56%] (52%) {52%} [51%] (54%)
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 43% (41%) {40%} [41%] (45%) {44%} [45%] (41%)
Among Women
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 54% (54%) {53%} [52%] (50%) {51%} [52%] (51%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 43% (40%) {41%} [41%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (45%)
Age 18-49
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% (51%) {52%} [51%] (50%) {50%} [50%] (50%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (44%) {43%} [44%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (46%)
Age 50+
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 50% (51%) {54%} [52%] (53%) {48%} [48%] (52%
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 47% (45%) {42%} [43%] (45%) {48%} [48%] (43%)
Among Whites
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 58% (57%) {56%} [55%] (54%) {54%} [55%] (57%)
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 40% (39%) {39%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [41%] (39%)
Among Blacks
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 96% (96%) {95%} [95%] (94%) {92%} [92%] (89%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 3% (3%) {3%} [3%] (3%) {5%} [5%] (5%)
Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted November 2-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (39%) {39%} [38%] (39%) {38%} [40%] (38%) Democrat; 33% (33%) {34%} [34%] (33%) {32%} [34%] (34%) Republican; 28% (28%) {27%} [28%] (28%) {30%} [26%] (28%) Independent. Gender: 48% (48%) {48%} [48%] (49%) {49%} [48%] (48%) Male; 52% (52%) {52%} [52%] (51%) {51%} [52%] (52%) Female.  Race: 77% (77%) {78%} [78%] (78%) {77%} [77%] (76%) White; 12% (12%) {12%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [12%] (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 46% (46%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [49%] (49%); 50 and older: 54% (54%) {53%} [52%] (52%) {52%} [51%] (51%).  Results from the poll conducted October 25-28, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-21, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 11-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Romney leads Obama 50% to 48% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (75% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 52% to 44% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (25% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.

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