Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll
Inside the numbers: - Joe Donnelly (D) 47% [40%] (35%)
- Richard Mourdock (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
- Andrew Horning (L) 6% [7%]
- Undecided 11%
- Joe Donnelly (D) 51%
- Richard Mourdock (R) 17%
- Joe Donnelly (D) 43% [38%]
- Richard Mourdock (R) 41% [42%]
- Joe Donnelly (D) 50% [41%]
- Richard Mourdock (R) 31.5% [35%]
- Joe Donnelly 36% [24%] / 31% [21%] {+5%}
- Richard Mourdock 30% [26%] (15%) / 49% [32%] (18%) {-19%}
- More favorable 11%
- Less favorable 43%
- Stayed the same 46%
- Aware 87%
- Unaware 13%
- More likely 6%
- Less likely 40%
- Didn't make much difference 54%
- More likely 3%
- Less likely 44%
- More likely 5%
- Less likely 44%
Mourdock has not consolidated his GOP base. He is only polling 70% of the Republican vote, an indicator that he never brought in the Lugar wing of the GOP, nor did the campaign attempt to try, instead sending out a post-primary fundraising letter citing Lugar’s “betrayal” to conservatives. In the September survey, Mourdock was polling only 71% of the GOP. Mourdock is only polling 31.5% of the female vote and just 77% of his base, the Tea Party.
Donnelly has consolidated Democrats, winning 88% of the vote among his own party.
In the Republican-rich doughnut counties, Mourdock's fav/unfavs stood at 30/50%. With independent women he stood at 12/48% and with independent men, 23/51%. Donnelly’s fav/unfav in the doughnut was 36/32% and with independent women, 31/16%.
In the Indiana Congressional Districts, Mourdock has his strongest support in 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th districts where he barely polls above 40%. Mourdock only has 29% support his home 8th district. In comparison, Donnelly leads in all districts except the 3rd and 4th.
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