Friday, November 02, 2012

Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 47% [40%] (35%)
  • Richard Mourdock (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
  • Andrew Horning (L) 6% [7%]
  • Undecided 11%
Among Independents
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 51%
  • Richard Mourdock (R) 17%
Among Men
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 43% [38%]
  • Richard Mourdock (R) 41% [42%] 
Among Women
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 50% [41%] 
  • Richard Mourdock (R) 31.5% [35%] 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Joe Donnelly 36% [24%] / 31% [21%] {+5%}
  • Richard Mourdock 30% [26%] (15%) / 49% [32%] (18%) {-19%}
In the past week or so, has your opinion of Richard Mourdock become more favorable, less favorable, or has it stayed the same?
  • More favorable 11%
  • Less favorable 43%
  • Stayed the same 46% 
Are you aware or unaware of comments Richard Mourdock made during the final Senate debate regarding his views on abortion in the case of rape? 
  • Aware 87%
  • Unaware 13% 
Did what he had to say on this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Richard Mourdock, or did it not make much difference in your decision? 
  • More likely 6%
  • Less likely 40%
  • Didn't make much difference 54%
Among Independents
  • More likely 3%
  • Less likely 44%
Among Women
  • More likely 5%
  • Less likely 44%
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 45% [43%] Republican; 34% [38%] Democrat; 21% [19%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Mourdock has not consolidated his GOP base. He is only polling 70% of the Republican vote, an indicator that he never brought in the Lugar wing of the GOP, nor did the campaign attempt to try, instead sending out a post-primary fundraising letter citing Lugar’s “betrayal” to conservatives. In the September survey, Mourdock was polling only 71% of the GOP.  Mourdock is only polling 31.5% of the female vote and just 77% of his base, the Tea Party.
Donnelly has consolidated Democrats, winning 88% of the vote among his own party.
In the Republican-rich doughnut counties, Mourdock's fav/unfavs stood at 30/50%. With independent women he stood at 12/48% and with independent men, 23/51%. Donnelly’s fav/unfav in the doughnut was 36/32% and with independent women, 31/16%.
In the Indiana Congressional Districts, Mourdock has his strongest support in 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th districts where he barely polls above 40%. Mourdock only has 29% support his home 8th district. In comparison, Donnelly leads in all districts except the 3rd and 4th.

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