Friday, November 02, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Montana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Montana 2012 Senate Poll
  • Jon Tester (D) 49% {48%} [43%] (47%) {43%} [44%] (44%)
  • Denny Rehberg (R) 48% {48%} [47%] (49%) {53%} [47%] (47%)
  • Some other candidate 2% {3%} [5%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (4%)
  • Undecided 2% {2%} [5%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (5%)
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Jon Tester
  • Very favorable 31% {30%}
  • Somewhat favorable 19% {22%}
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14% {15%}
  • Very unfavorable 33% {30%}
Denny Rehberg
  • Very favorable 21% {22%}
  • Somewhat favorable 22% {23%}
  • Somewhat unfavorable 16% {15%}
  • Very unfavorable 35% {34%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Jon Tester 50% {52%} / 47% {45%} {+3%}  
  • Denny Rehberg 43% {45%} / 51% {49%} {-8%}
Survey of 500 likely Montana voters was conducted October 29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 2, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 22, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Forty-nine percent (49%) of likely Montana voters say they have already voted, and among these voters, Tester leads 55% to 41%.
Among the 97% of the state’s likely voters who say they are sure to vote, it’s Tester 49%, Rehberg 48%.
Rehberg has the support of just 84% of Montana Republicans. Fifteen percent (15%) of the state’s GOP voters and 90% of Democrats are backing Tester. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the incumbent is ahead 50% to 44%.

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