Poll Watch: Rasmussen Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 41% [19%] (19%)
• Mitt Romney 32% [41%] (24%)
• Rick Santorum 11% [15%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 8% [9%] (3%)
• Undecided 9% [8%]

Note: Florida allows early voting, and Romney leads among those voters by 11 points. Gingrich leads by 12 among those who have not yet voted. Fourteen percent (14%) have already cast their vote.

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 59% [51%]
• Could change mind 32% [41%]
• No preference yet 9% [8%]

Note: Those who are certain of their vote include 73% of Romney supporters and 62% of Gingrich voters

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Newt Gingrich 42%
• Mitt Romney 39%

Note: At the other extreme, 64% see Ron Paul as the weakest potential candidate against Obama.

Which Republican candidate would do the best job managing the economy?

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Newt Gingrich 30%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on the issue of national security and defense?

• Newt Gingrich 54%
• Mitt Romney 23%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on social issues?

• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Rick Santorum 23%

Which Republican candidate has the best personal character?

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Rick Santorum 30%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Ron Paul 10%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Gingrich leads by 28 among Very Conservative voters and by seven among Somewhat Conservative voters. Among all other voters, Romney leads by 20.

Gingrich picks up 52% of the Tea Party vote. Romney gets 17% and Santorum 16% of these voters.

Regardless of their personal favorite, most Florida primary voters (52%) still think Romney will be the eventual nominee, but that's down dramatically from 79% two weeks ago. Thirty-five percent (35%) now think Gingrich will be the GOP nominee.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) have a favorable opinion of Romney, while 69% say the same of Gingrich. Sixty-four percent (64%) give Santorum positive reviews, but only 33% have a favorable opinion of Paul.