Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Louisiana 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) Louisiana 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 43%
• Mitt Romney 31%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 5%

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 57%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Rick Santorum 32%
• Newt Gingrich 19%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 73%
• Rick Santorum 17%

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted March 21, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Among Louisiana primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative, it’s Santorum 49%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%. Romney holds a far more modest lead among those who are somewhat conservative or not conservative at all.

Santorum has a 32-point lead over Romney among Evangelical Christians and a 10-point lead among Catholic primary voters. Rommey leads by 11 among other Protestants, and the two mean are tied among voters of other faiths.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of all GOP primary voters in the state think Romney is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama, and 75% believe the same of Santorum. Fifty-eight percent (58%) feel Gingrich is likely to win. But voters express a lot more confidence in Romney when you look closer at these numbers: 51% say he is very likely to win, compared to 36% and 29% who say that of Santorum and Gingrich respectively.

Comparable to findings nationally and in other states, 54% of Louisiana Republicans think it is more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama. Forty-one percent (41%) believe the emphasis should be on a candidate who does the best job representing GOP values. Romney leads Santorum 40% to 33% among those who put electability first. But Santorum trounces Romney 56% to 21% among voters who emphasize adherence to party values.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 84% of likely GOP primary voters in Louisiana, Romney by 72%, Gingrich by 68% and Paul by just 36%. As in many other states, most Republicans (60%) in Louisiana view Paul unfavorably. Paul does best in open primaries that allow non-Republicans to vote, but Saturday’s primary is a closed one, meaning only registered GOP voters are eligible.