Poll Watch: ASU/Merrill/Morrison Institute Arizona 2012 Presidential Survey

ASU/Merrill/Morrison Institute Arizona 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Barack Obama 40%
• Undecided 18%

Survey of 488 registered voters was conducted the second week of April 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty percent (80%) of Republicans said they would vote for Romney, 78 percent of Democrats for Obama. Although the sample of political independents is small (n=166), independents appear to be breaking slightly more for Obama (38 percent) than Romney (28 percent). However, the independent vote is still up for grabs because 34 percent of independents said they are undecided.

Romney appears to have the Tea Party support. Among the 39 percent of the electorate who said they support what the Tea Party stands for, 75 percent said they would vote for Romney.

But the poll also found that younger voters disproportionately support Obama while older voters support Romney. No “gender gap” was found among Arizona voters, however, as 40 percent of both men and women said they would vote for Obama.