Redfield Wilton/The Telegraph 2024 Swing States Poll

Redfield Wilton/The Telegraph 2024 Swing States Poll

Arizona

• Donald Trump 43% {40%} [44%] (44%) {41%} [40%] (42%)
• Joe Biden 39% {38%} [42%] (41%) {35%} [33%] (37%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7% {6%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [10%] (8%)
• Jill Stein 1% {1%}
• Chase Oliver 0% {0%}

Florida

• Donald Trump 45% {43%} [47%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (44%)
• Joe Biden 41% {37%} [38%] (39%) {34%} [34%] (37%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 5% {7%} [6%] (7%) {9%} [9%] (8%)
• Chase Oliver 0% {1%}
• Jill Stein 0% {1%}

Georgia

• Donald Trump 46% {44%} [43%] (44%) {42%} [45%] (41%)
• Joe Biden 40% {39%} [38%] (41%) {34%} [35%] (38%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6% {6%} [5%] (6%) {8%} [7%] (8%)
• Jill Stein 1% {0%}
• Chase Oliver 0% {0%}

Michigan

• Joe Biden 43% {36%} [37%] (39%) {37%} [38%] (38%)
• Donald Trump 42% {37%} [43%] (41%) {39%} [39%] (40%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6% {8%} [7%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (7%)
• Chase Oliver 1% {1%}
• Jill Stein 0% {1%}

North Carolina

• Donald Trump 44% {43%} [44%] (43%) {37%} [44%] (41%)
• Joe Biden 42% {40%} [37%] (39%) {33%} [35%] (38%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4% {7%} [7%] (8%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
• Jill Stein 1% {1%}
• Chase Oliver 0% {0%}

Pennsylvania

• Donald Trump 45% {44%} [43%] (44%) {40%} [44%] (39%)
• Joe Biden 40% {42%} [41%] (41%) {39%} [37%] (39%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6% {5%} [7%] (7%) {6%} [7%] (9%)
• Jill Stein 1% {1%}
• Chase Oliver 0% {0%}

Survey of eligible voters: 506 (Arizona), 574 (Florida), 534 (Georgia), 560 (Michigan), 536 (North Carolina), and 891 (Pennsylvania) was conducted July 8-10, 2024. Results from the poll conducted June 8-11, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-17, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 28-30, 2023 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 27-29, 2023 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 7-9, 2023 are in parentheses.

Morning Consult/Bloomberg News 2024 Swing States Tracking Poll

Morning Consult/Bloomberg News 2024 Swing States Tracking Poll

Arizona

• Donald Trump 48% (49%) {49%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {47%}
• Joe Biden 45% (44%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {43%}

Georgia

• Donald Trump 47% (47%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {48%}
• Joe Biden 46% (44%) {43%} [42%] (43%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {43%}

Michigan

• Joe Biden 48% (46%) {47%} [45%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {44%}
• Donald Trump 43% (45%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (43%) {44%}

Nevada

• Donald Trump 48% (47%) {51%} [46%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (46%) {43%}
• Joe Biden 45% (47%) {43%} [44%] (42%) {40%} [44%] (43%) {46%}

North Carolina

• Donald Trump 46% (49%) {51%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {47%}
• Joe Biden 43% (42%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {43%}

Pennsylvania

• Donald Trump 51% (48%) {47%} [45%] (49%) {48%} [46%] (47%) {46%}
• Joe Biden 44% (46%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {45%}

Wisconsin

• Joe Biden 47% (46%) {44%} [46%] (42%) {44%} [41%] (46%) {44%}
• Donald Trump 44% (47%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {49%} [45%] (47%) {46%}

Survey of 4,902 registered voters (781 in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania, and 695 in Wisconsin) was conducted July 1-5, 2024. The overall margin of error is +/- 1 percentage point (+/-4% in AZ, +/-3% in GA, +/-4% in MI, +/-5% in NV, +/-4% in NC, +/-3% in PA, +/-4% in WI). Results from the poll conducted May 7-13, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 8-15, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 8-15, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-20, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 16-22, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 27 - December 6, 2023 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 30 - November 7, 2023 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2023 are in curly brackets. 

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% {41%} [40%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 96% {95%} [94%] (93%)
  
• Donald Trump 2% {3%} [3%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 91% {90%} [89%] (84%)
  
• Joe Biden 5% {6%} [8%] (11%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 52% {53%} [54%] (51%)
  
• Donald Trump 34% {28%} [23%] (33%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 49% {46%} [43%] (45%)
  
• Joe Biden 41% {44%} [45%] (42%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 56% {55%} [54%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 38% {37%} [37%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 54% {46%} [55%]
  
• Donald Trump 39% {45%} [40%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 58% {51%} [50%]
  
• Joe Biden 36% {41%} [39%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 66% {65%} [57%] (66%)
  
• Donald Trump 26% {27%} [26%] (26%)
  

Survey of 1,252 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-16, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2020 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2020 Presidential Poll

 Likely Voters, Including Leaners 

• Joe Biden 50% [47%] (46%)
• Donald Trump 47% [44%] (46%)

Democrat

• Joe Biden 98% [95%] (92%)
• Donald Trump 1% [2%] (3%)

Republican

• Donald Trump 97% [93%] (90%)
• Joe Biden 2% [4%] (7%)

Independent

• Donald Trump 48% [40%] (46%)
• Joe Biden 45% [39%] (37%)

Men

• Donald Trump 50% [49%] (49%)
• Joe Biden 46% [42%] (41%)

Women

• Joe Biden 54% [52%] (50%)
• Donald Trump 44% [40%] (42%)

Liberal

• Joe Biden 91% [88%] (89%)
• Donald Trump 6% [6%] (6%)

Moderate

• Joe Biden 61% [60%] (55%)
• Donald Trump 35% [25%] (30%)

Conservative

• Donald Trump 89% [91%] (87%)
• Joe Biden 9% [5%] (7%)

White, 4-Year Degree

• Joe Biden 52% [53%]
  
• Donald Trump 42% [39%]
  

White, No Degree

• Donald Trump 58% [56%]
  
• Joe Biden 40% [37%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 62% [62%] (69%)
• Donald Trump 34% [27%] (21%)

Survey of 1,074 likely voters was conducted October 13-16, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 7-10, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2020 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2020 Presidential Poll

• Joe Biden 46%
• Donald Trump 46%

Democrat

• Joe Biden 92%
• Donald Trump 3%

Republican

• Donald Trump 90%
• Joe Biden 7%

Independent

• Donald Trump 46%
• Joe Biden 37%

Men

• Donald Trump 49%
• Joe Biden 41%

Women

• Joe Biden 50%
• Donald Trump 42%

Liberal

• Joe Biden 89%
• Donald Trump 6%

Moderate

• Joe Biden 55%
• Donald Trump 30%

Conservative

• Donald Trump 87%
• Joe Biden 7%

Age 18-29

• Joe Biden 59%
• Donald Trump 23%

Age 30-44

• Joe Biden 56%
• Donald Trump 29%

Age 45-64

• Donald Trump 52%
• Joe Biden 42%

Age 65+

• Donald Trump 58%
• Joe Biden 39%

White

• Donald Trump 53%
• Joe Biden 39%

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 69%
• Donald Trump 21%

Survey of 1,099 likely voters was conducted July 7-10, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News Arizona 2018 Senatorial Survey

Fox News Arizona 2018 Senate Poll

• Martha McSally (R) 46% [45%] (44%)
• Kyrsten Sinema (D) 46% [47%] (47%)

Men

• Martha McSally (R) 51% [49%] (51%)
• Kyrsten Sinema (D) 43% [43%] (42%)

Women

• Kyrsten Sinema (D) 49% [50%] (53%)
• Martha McSally (R) 42% [41%] (38%)

White, College Degree

• Martha McSally (R) 50% [48%] (43%)
• Kyrsten Sinema (D) 45% [46%] (51%)

White, No College Degree

• Martha McSally (R) 50% [49%] (51%)
• Kyrsten Sinema (D) 40% [43%] (38%)

Survey of 643 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2018 by Braun Research. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2018 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-11, 2018 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 46% (42%)
• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 41% (41%)

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Donald Trump (R) 45% (40%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (38%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 9% (12%)
• Jill Stein (G) 3% (3%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 37% (34%) / 61% (61%) {-24}
• Donald Trump 34% (35%) / 59% (58%) {-25}

Survey of 719 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 51% (49%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (44%)

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Donald Trump (R) 49% (45%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (38%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% (12%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (4%)

Survey of 769 likely voters was conducted October 27 - November 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18-23, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Emerson College Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

Emerson College Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 47.0%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43.4%
• Jill Stein (G) 2.4%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2.3%

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 51.4%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39.3%
• Gary Johnson (L) 3.5%
• Jill Stein (G) 2.8%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47.6%
• Donald Trump (R) 42.6%
• Jill Stein (G) 2.0%
• Gary Johnson (L) 1.2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 47.7% / 48.2% {-0.5}
• Hillary Clinton 33.1% / 61.5% {-28.4}

Survey of 700 likely voters was conducted October 29-31, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 44% (44%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (42%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 4% (5%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (2%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 51% (48%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (41%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 3% (6%)
• Jill Stein (G) 2% (3%)

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (44%)
• Donald Trump (R) 38% (39%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% (4%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (0%)

Among Whites

• Donald Trump (R) 52% (53%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (34%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 4% (6%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (0%)

Among Hispanics

• Hillary Clinton (D) 64% (67%)
• Donald Trump (R) 24% (13%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% (2%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (8%)

Survey of 994 likely voters was conducted October 26-28, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 46%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Gary Johnson (L) 4%
• Jill Stein (G) 1%

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 55%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
• Gary Johnson (L) 4%
• Jill Stein (G) 1%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
• Donald Trump (R) 38%
• Gary Johnson (L) 3%
• Jill Stein (G) 0%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 34% / 56% {-22}
• Hillary Clinton 32% / 57% {-25}

Survey of 401 likely Arizona voters was conducted October 21-24, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 42%
• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 41%

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
• Gary Johnson (L) 12%
• Jill Stein (G) 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 35% / 58% {-23%}
• Hillary Clinton 34% / 61% {-27%}

Survey of 649 likely voters was conducted September 6-8, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 43%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
• Gary Johnson (L) 12%
• Jill Stein (G) 4%

Survey of 842 registered voters was conducted August 18-23, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 44%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
• Gary Johnson (L) 5%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 48%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Jill Stein (G) 3%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
• Donald Trump (R) 39%
• Gary Johnson (L) 4%
• Jill Stein (G) 0%

Among Whites

• Donald Trump (R) 53%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 34%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Jill Stein (G) 0%

Among Hispanics

• Hillary Clinton (D) 67%
• Donald Trump (R) 13%
• Jill Stein (G) 8%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2%

Survey of 1,095 likely voters was conducted August 2-5, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 44% (45%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (41%)
• Not sure 16% (14%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 51% (53%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (34%)
• Not sure 15% (13%)

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (47%)
• Donald Trump (R) 39% (39%)
• Not sure 17% (14%)

Survey of 691 registered Arizona voters was conducted June 22-23, 2016 on behalf of Americans United for Change.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 13-15, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll

If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would you vote for?

• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Not sure 13%
  

If the candidates for President this fall were just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

• Donald Trump (R) 45%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Not sure 14%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 36% / 56% {-20%}
• Hillary Clinton 31% / 60% {-29%}

Survey of 896 registered voters was conducted May 13-15, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Behavior Research Center Arizona 2016 Republican Primary Survey

BRC Arizona 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Ben Carson 23%
• Donald Trump 21%
• Marco Rubio 15%
• Jeb Bush 8%
• Ted Cruz 5%
• Carly Fiorina 2%
• Chris Christie 1%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• John Kasich 1%
• Rand Paul 1%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• Bobby Jindal 0%
• Rick Santorum 0% 
• Not sure yet 22%

Survey of 226 registered GOP voters was conducted October 24 - November 5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) Arizona 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) Arizona 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 56%
• Bernie Sanders 34%
• Joe Biden 6% 
• Lincoln Chafee 2%
• Jim Webb 1%
• Martin O'Malley 1%

Survey of 427 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted August 15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) Arizona 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) Arizona 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 33.1% 
• Ben Carson 16.2%
• Carly Fiorina 10.8%
• Jeb Bush 10.2%
• Ted Cruz 8.2%
• Marco Rubio 6.0%
• John Kasich 4.2% 
• Scott Walker 4.1%
• Mike Huckabee 3.5%
• Rand Paul 1.8%
• Chris Christie 1.0%
• Rick Perry 0.3%
• Rick Santorum 0.2%
• Bobby Jindal 0.1%
• Lindsey Graham 0.1%
• George Pataki 0.1%

Survey of 844 registered Republican primary voters was conducted August 15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2016 Presidential Poll 

• Chris Christie (R) 46% (41%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (44%)

• Rand Paul (R) 45% (43%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (46%)

• Mike Huckabee (R) 44% (41%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (47%)

• Marco Rubio (R) 43%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%

• Ted Cruz (R) 44%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

• Scott Walker (R) 44%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (44%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 41% (45%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  
• Ben Carson (R) 42%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  
• Rick Perry (R) 41%

• Scott Walker (R) 41%
• Lincoln Chafee (D) 26%

• Scott Walker (R) 43%
• Bernie Sanders (D) 28%

• Scott Walker (R) 43%
• Martin O'Malley (D) 25%

• Scott Walker (R) 44%
• Jim Webb (D) 26%

Survey of 600 Arizona voters was conducted May 1-3, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (39%) Republican; 33% (31%) Democrat; 26% (30%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% (29%) Moderate; 23% (26%) Somewhat conservative; 18% (17%) Very conservative; 15% (18%) Somewhat liberal; 12% (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 28 - March 2, 2014 are in parentheses.