New York Times/Siena College 2024 Presidential Election Poll

 New York Times/Siena College 2024 Presidential Election Poll

Likely Voters

• Donald Trump 49% [48%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (43%)
• Joe Biden 43% [44%] (46%) {44%} [47%] (43%)

Democrat

• Joe Biden 91% [94%] (90%) {90%} [91%] (83%)
  
• Donald Trump 5% [3%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (7%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 95% [94%] (91%) {91%} [90%] (88%)
  
• Joe Biden 3% [4%] (5%) {6%} [6%] (5%)
  

Independent

• Donald Trump 45% [47%] (47%) {41%} [38%] (37%)
• Joe Biden 42% [40%] (44%) {45%} [50%] (42%)

Men

• Donald Trump 57% [52%] (57%) {49%} [49%] (50%)
• Joe Biden 34% [40%] (37%) {42%} [42%] (36%)

Women

• Joe Biden 51% [48%] (54%) {46%} [51%] (49%)
• Donald Trump 43% [43%] (38%) {47%} [42%] (37%)

White with B.A.+

• Joe Biden 54% [51%] (55%) {56%} [60%] (51%)
• Donald Trump 40% [44%] (39%) {40%} [35%] (36%)

White without B.A.

• Donald Trump 67% [62%] (63%) {61%} [65%] (59%)
• Joe Biden 28% [30%] (31%) {30%} [29%] (30%)

Black

• Joe Biden 79% [65%] (76%) {71%} [82%] (71%)
  
• Donald Trump 14% [26%] (16%) {20%} [13%] (12%)

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 47% [52%] (52%) {43%} [47%] (41%)
  
• Donald Trump 46% [38%] (39%) {45%} [35%] (38%)

Age 18-29

• Joe Biden 48% [54%] (47%) {54%} [47%] (47%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% [35%] (45%) {41%} [44%] (37%)

Age 30-44

• Donald Trump 49% [45%] (44%) {48%} [42%] (42%)
  
• Joe Biden 43% [47%] (46%) {43%} [53%] (39%)

Age 45-64

• Donald Trump 55% [56%] (52%) {55%} [51%] (48%)
  
• Joe Biden 37% [37%] (44%) {37%} [39%] (39%)

Age 65+

• Joe Biden 48% [48%] (52%) {51%} [52%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% [45%] (43%) {42%} [41%] (43%)

Survey of 1,532 likely voters was conducted June 28 - July 2, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 20-25, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-11, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 25-28, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2023 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-27, 2023 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 52% {51%} [48%] (49%)
  
• Donald Trump 41% {41%} [43%] (38%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 97% {97%} [94%] (96%)
  
• Donald Trump 2% {2%} [3%] (1%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 94% {91%} [90%] (86%)
  
• Joe Biden 4% {6%} [7%] (6%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 59% {52%} [49%] (43%)
  
• Donald Trump 29% {34%} [35%] (36%)
  

Men

• Joe Biden 47% {50%} [44%] (43%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 56% {58%} [52%] (56%)
  
• Donald Trump 37% {34%} [39%] (33%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 62% {62%} [60%]
  
• Donald Trump 34% {30%} [35%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 47% {50%} [50%]
  
• Joe Biden 45% {44%} [39%]
  

Survey of 1,253 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-11, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-15, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% {42%} [40%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 90% {91%} [92%] (93%)
  
• Donald Trump 6% {5%} [5%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 89% {84%} [85%] (84%)
  
• Joe Biden 8% {11%} [10%] (11%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 48% {47%} [44%] (51%)
  
• Donald Trump 36% {34%} [34%] (33%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 47% {46%} [49%] (45%)
  
• Joe Biden 44% {44%} [41%] (42%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 54% {54%} [58%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 40% {39%} [32%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 58% {60%} [59%]
  
• Donald Trump 36% {31%} [33%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 56% {58%} [52%]
  
• Joe Biden 39% {34%} [39%]
  

Survey of 1,862 likely voters was conducted October 26-31, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 2, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-27, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-16, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Florida 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Florida 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 47% [47%] (47%)
  
• Donald Trump 44% [42%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 91% [93%] (92%)
  
• Donald Trump 4% [3%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 90% [87%] (87%)
  
• Joe Biden 8% [11%] (5%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 47% [45%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 37% [33%] (30%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 47% [47%] (47%)
  
• Joe Biden 45% [42%] (41%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 50% [52%] (52%)
  
• Donald Trump 41% [38%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 49% [45%]
  
• Donald Trump 45% [42%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 59% [60%]
  
• Joe Biden 35% [33%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 55% [58%] (52%)
  
• Donald Trump 33% [34%] (29%)
  

Black

• Joe Biden 78% [75%] (85%)
  
• Donald Trump 11% [5%] (5%)
  

Survey of 1,451 likely voters was conducted October 27-31, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-18, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% {41%} [40%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 96% {95%} [94%] (93%)
  
• Donald Trump 2% {3%} [3%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 91% {90%} [89%] (84%)
  
• Joe Biden 5% {6%} [8%] (11%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 52% {53%} [54%] (51%)
  
• Donald Trump 34% {28%} [23%] (33%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 49% {46%} [43%] (45%)
  
• Joe Biden 41% {44%} [45%] (42%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 56% {55%} [54%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 38% {37%} [37%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 54% {46%} [55%]
  
• Donald Trump 39% {45%} [40%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 58% {51%} [50%]
  
• Joe Biden 36% {41%} [39%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 66% {65%} [57%] (66%)
  
• Donald Trump 26% {27%} [26%] (26%)
  

Survey of 1,252 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-16, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Bernie Sanders 25% (19%)
• Pete Buttigieg 18% (18%)
• Joe Biden 17% (17%)
• Elizabeth Warren 15% (22%)
• Amy Klobuchar 8% (4%)
• Tom Steyer 3% (2%)
• Andrew Yang 3% (3%)
• Michael Bloomberg 1%
• Tulsi Gabbard 1% (2%)
• Michael Bennet 0% (0%)
• John Delaney 0% (1%)
• Deval Patrick 0%

Survey of 584 likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers was conducted January 20-23, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 25-30, 2019 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Elizabeth Warren 22%
• Bernie Sanders 19%
• Pete Buttigieg 18%
• Joe Biden 17%
• Amy Klobuchar 4%
• Andrew Yang 3%
• Kamala Harris 3%
• Cory Booker 2%
• Tulsi Gabbard 2%
• Tom Steyer 2%
• John Delaney 1%
• Beto O'Rourke 1%
• Michael Bennet 0%
• Steve Bullock 0%
• Julián Castro 0%
• Wayne Messam 0%
• Joe Sestak 0%
• Marianne Williamson 0%

.@UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch Iowa Poll:

18-29
Warren 38%
Sanders 29
Buttigieg 12
Yang 7
Klobuchar 4

30-44
Sanders 26%
Warren 24
Buttigieg 18
Harris 8
Yang 5

45-64
Biden 27%
Buttigieg 18
Sanders 17
Warren 16
Klobuchar 5

65+
Biden 31%
Buttigieg 23
Warren 13
Klobuchar 8
Sanders 5

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) November 1, 2019

.@UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch Iowa Dem Poll

1st and 2nd Choices Combined

Men
Warren 44%
Sanders 39
Buttigieg 29
Biden 23
Klobuchar 10
Yang 10
Delaney 5
Booker 4
Gabbard 3
Harris 3

Women
Warren 48%
Buttigieg 32
Sanders 32
Biden 31
Harris 13
Klobuchar 9
Booker 4
Steyer 3
O'Rourke 3

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) November 1, 2019

Survey of 439 likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers was conducted October 25-30, 2019. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 47% [51%] (49%) {46%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [47%] (50%)
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 44% [40%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (44%) {40%} [41%] (40%)

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [47%] (45%) {42%} [43%] (39%) {36%}
• Donald Trump (R) 42% [38%] (41%) {42%} [38%] (40%) {36%} 
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% [8%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (12%) {12%}
• Jill Stein (G) 4% [3%] (3%) {4%}

National survey of 1,333 likely voters was conducted October 28 - November 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 12-16, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28 - October 2, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29-31, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-24, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 8-12, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 13-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times Upshot/Siena College North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

New York Times Upshot/Siena College North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Donald Trump (R) 43%

Including Third-Party Candidate:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Donald Trump (R) 41%
• Gary Johnson (L) 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 43% / 54% {-11}
• Donald Trump 39% / 58% {-19}

Survey of 782 likely voters was conducted September 16-19, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: New York Times Upshot/Siena College Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

New York Times Upshot/Siena College Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
• Donald Trump (R) 43%

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 9%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 40% / 53% {-13}
• Donald Trump 39% / 55% {-16}

Survey of 867 likely voters was conducted September 10-14, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS News 2016 National Presidential Poll

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

• Donald Trump (R) 44% {40%} [41%] (40%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {40%} [47%] (50%)

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson?

• Donald Trump (R) 40% {36%} 
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {36%} 
• Gary Johnson (L) 12% {12%} 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 34% {30%} (24%) / 53% {54%} (57%) {-19%}
• Hillary Clinton 31% {28%} (31%) / 56% {54%} (52%) {-25%}

National survey of 1,118 registered voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 8-12, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 13-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS/NYT 2016 National Presidential Poll

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

• Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [47%] (50%)
• Donald Trump (R) 40% [41%] (40%)

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson?

• Hillary Clinton (D) 36%
• Donald Trump (R) 36%
• Gary Johnson (L) 12%

National survey of 1,358 registered voters was conducted July 8-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 13-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS/NYT 2016 National Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (50%)
• Donald Trump (R) 41% (40%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 46% 
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
• Donald Trump (R) 36%

National survey of 1,109 registered voters was conducted May 13-17, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS/NYT 2016 National Presidential Poll

• John Kasich (R) 47%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
• Ted Cruz (R) 44%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
• Donald Trump (R) 40%

National survey of 1,058 registered voters was conducted March 17-20, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 35% {36%} [35%] (22%) {27%} [27%] (24%)
• Ted Cruz 18% {19%} [16%] (4%) {9%} [5%] (6%)
• Marco Rubio 12% {12%} [9%] (8%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
• John Kasich 11% {2%} [3%] (4%) {2%} [3%] (1%)
• Ben Carson 6% {6%] [13%] (26%) {21%} [23%] (6%)
• Jeb Bush 4% {6%} [3%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (13%)
• None of them (vol.) 5% {1%} [2%] {3%} 
• Don't know/No answer 8% {7%} [7%] (6%) {11%} [9%] (9%)

National survey of 581 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 12-16, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 7-10, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 21-25, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 48% [52%] (52%) {56%} [58%]
• Bernie Sanders 41% [32%] (33%) {32%} [28%]
• Martin O'Malley 2% [2%] (5%) {1%} [0%]

Survey of 389 Democratic primary voters was conducted January 7-10, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 6-10, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 36% [35%] (22%) {27%} [27%] (24%)
• Ted Cruz 19% [16%] (4%) {9%} [5%] (6%)
• Marco Rubio 12% [9%] (8%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
• Jeb Bush 6% [3%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (13%)
• Ben Carson 6% [13%] (26%) {21%} [23%] (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 4% [3%] (4%) {2%} [6%] (8%)
• Chris Christie 3% [3%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (3%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% [1%] (7%) {6%} [4%] (0%)
• John Kasich 2% [3%] (4%) {2%} [3%] (1%)
• Rand Paul 1% [4%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (4%)
• Rick Santorum 0% [0%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
• None of them (vol.) 1% [2%] {3%} 
• Don't know/No answer 7% [7%] (6%) {11%} [9%] (9%)

Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for president?

• Ted Cruz 20% [19%] (12%) {6%} [12%] (8%)
• Marco Rubio 14% [13%] (11%) {18%} [7%] (11%)
• Ben Carson 11% [13%] (19%) {20%} [19%] (10%)
• Donald Trump 11% [12%] (18%) {11%} [12%] (6%)
• Jeb Bush 9% [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (10%)
• Chris Christie 6% [6%] (3%) {5%} [4%] (3%)
• Mike Huckabee 4% [4%] (3%) {6%} [4%] (7%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% [4%] (9%) {13%} [6%] (5%)
• John Kasich 3% [3%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (4%)
• Rand Paul 3% [6%] (4%) {2%} [3%] (8%)
• Jim Gilmore 1% [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 1% [0%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (2%)

National survey of 442 Republican primary voters was conducted January 7-10, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 21-25, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 52% (52%) {56%} [58%]
• Bernie Sanders 32% (33%) {32%} [28%]
• Martin O'Malley 2% (5%) {1%} [0%]

Survey of 384 Democratic primary voters was conducted December 4-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 6-10, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 47% (58%)
• Bernie Sanders 27% (17%)
• Joe Biden 15% (11%)
• Lincoln Chafee 1% (1%)
• Jim Webb 1% (2%)
• Martin O'Malley 0% (1%) 

If Joe Biden does not run for President:

• Hillary Clinton 58%
• Bernie Sanders 28%
• Jim Webb 3%
• Martin O'Malley 0%
• Lincoln Chafee 0%

Survey of 351 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted September 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 27% (24%)
• Ben Carson 23% (6%)
• Jeb Bush 6% (13%)
• Mike Huckabee 6% (8%)
• Marco Rubio 6% (6%)
• Ted Cruz 5% (6%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% (0%)
• John Kasich 3% (1%)
• Rand Paul 3% (4%)
• Scott Walker 2% (10%)
• Chris Christie 1% (3%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% (0%)
• Bobby Jindal 0% (2%)
• George Pataki 0% (1%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% (1%)

Survey of 376 Republican primary voters was conducted September 9-13, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 2, 2015 are in parentheses.