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PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Ron Paul 23% [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
- Mitt Romney 20% [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
- Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
- Michele Bachmann 10% [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
- Rick Perry 10% [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
- Rick Santorum 10% [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
- Jon Huntsman 4% [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
- Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%) {1%}
- Someone else/Not sure 7% [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 22%
- Ron Paul 19%
- Newt Gingrich 17%
- Rick Perry 11%
- Rick Santorum 10%
- Michele Bachmann 10%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
- Gary Johnson 2%
- Someone else/Not sure 7%
Among Independents
- Ron Paul 34%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- Jon Huntsman 11%
- Michele Bachmann 10%
- Rick Santorum 9%
- Rick Perry 7%
- Newt Gingrich 6%
- Gary Johnson 4%
- Someone else/Not sure 6%
Very Conservative
- Newt Gingrich 17%
- Ron Paul 16%
- Michele Bachmann 15%
- Rick Perry 15%
- Mitt Romney 14%
- Rick Santorum 13%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 7%
Somewhat Conservative
- Mitt Romney 25%
- Ron Paul 20%
- Newt Gingrich 16%
- Rick Santorum 11%
- Rick Perry 10%
- Michele Bachmann 4%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Gary Johnson 2%
- Someone else/Not sure 9%
Moderate
- Ron Paul 35%
- Mitt Romney 25%
- Michele Bachmann 12%
- Jon Huntsman 9%
- Newt Gingrich 7%
- Gary Johnson 4%
- Rick Perry 3%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 4%
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 63% [60%] (55%)
- Might end up supporting someone else 37% [40%] (45%)
Second Choice
- Michele Bachmann 15% [11%] (10%) {11%}
- Rick Perry 14% [10%] (11%) {12%}
- Newt Gingrich 13% [14%] (17%) {17%}
- Mitt Romney 12% [13%] (13%) {11%}
- Rick Santorum 9% [8%] (9%) {5%}
- Ron Paul 9% [12%] (10%) {9%}
- Jon Huntsman 7% [7%] (5%) {3%}
- Gary Johnson 1% [1%] (2%) {1%}
- Someone else/Not sure 18% [25%] (22%) {15%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Rick Santorum 52% [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 32% [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+20%}
- Michele Bachmann 52% [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 34% [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
- Ron Paul 54% [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+16%}
- Mitt Romney 49% [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 40% [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+9%}
- Rick Perry 48% [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
- Newt Gingrich 46% [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 47% [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-1%}
- Jon Huntsman 32% [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 38% [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-6%}
Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
- Mitt Romney 25% [21%] (23%)5
- Newt Gingrich 17% [30%] (33%)
- Ron Paul 16% [14%] (9%)
- Michele Bachmann 7% [5%] (7%)
- Rick Perry 6% [7%] (7%)
- Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%)
- Jon Huntsman 3% [2%] (3%)
- Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%)
- Someone else/Not sure 20% [16%] (14%)
Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?
- Newt Gingrich 20%
- Ron Paul 20%
- Mitt Romney 19%
- Michele Bachmann 6%
- Rick Perry 3%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 27%
Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?
- Ron Paul 22%
- Michele Bachmann 19%
- Newt Gingrich 8%
- Rick Santorum 8%
- Rick Perry 7%
- Mitt Romney 5%
- Gary Johnson 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 28%
Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?
- He does 73%
- He does not 10%
Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?
- He does 50%
- He does not 31%
Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?
- He does 36%
- He does not 43%
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
- Yes 26% [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
- No 61% [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}
What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?
- A candidate's ability to beat Obama 32% [32%] (34%)
- Their issue positions 56% [56%] (57%)
Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?
- Yes 47% {37%} [48%] (42%) {26%}
- No 31% {42%} [32%] (36%) {48%}
- Not sure 21% {22%} [20%] (23%) {26%}
Do you support or oppose ethanol subsidies?
- Support 33%
- Oppose 32%
- Not sure 35%
Survey of 597 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 16-18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 75% [78%] (80%) Republican; 19% [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 5% [4%] (6%) Democrat. Political ideology: 36% [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 36% [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 19% [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 6% [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.
TheIowaRepublican.com Iowa GOP 2012 Survey on Ethanol Subsidies
Some of the candidates have proposed to end federal subsidies for ethanol. Do you have a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative reaction to candidates taking this position?
- Very positive 23%
- Somewhat positive 24%
- Somewhat negative 15%
- Very negative 10%
- Doesn't matter 21%
Which would you be more likely to support, a candidate who supports ethanol subsidies because they are important to the Iowa economy, or a candidate who opposes them because they want to get spending under control?
- Supports ethanol subsidies 31%
- Opposes ethanol subsidies 56%
Who would you vote for between a candidate who you might not agree with on every issue but who has the best chance of beating Barack Obama, or someone who is the closest to your views on the issues, but who might not have a good chance of beating Barack Obama?
- Someone who can beat Obama 61%
- Someone who is closest to my views 32%
Survey of 500 likely caucus goers was conducted by Voter/Consumer Research June 26-30, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4.4 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
When respondents were asked which of a list of issues was the most important to them, 46% said jobs & the economy and 31% said cutting spending. These were far and away the top answers by likely caucus goers. Only two percent of those surveyed mentioned ethanol, the lowest of any of the 10 issues that were presented to the poll’s participants.
The poll finds that, the more conservative caucus goers are and the more attention they pay to the 2012 race, the more likely they are to support a candidate who wants to end ethanol subsidies. Yet, even among people who depend on agriculture for 25% or more of their income, the issue is a split decision. People in this group are as likely to say that they will support a candidate who says he or she will end ethanol subsidies as a candidate to pledges to continue them.
Every candidate who registered significant support in the poll has supporters who oppose ethanol subsidies by a substantial margin. In most cases, the margin between a candidate’s supporters who opposed ethanol subsidies and those who support them ranged from 25 points to 61 points. Romney’s margin was only five points.
The poll’s crosstabs suggest that the people with the greatest desire to beat President Obama are generally older. Both men and women over the age of 55 put a preference on backing a candidate who they believe can beat Obama. This is also the case with individuals who say they are already paying a lot of attention to the 2012 presidential race.
Straight ticket Republican voters, as well as “very” and “somewhat” conservative voters, are more likely to hold this position than moderate Republicans the poll finds. Fiscal conservatives, those who mentioned either taxes or spending as their top concerns, also show a healthy appetite for limiting Obama to one-term as president.
The survey finds that the desire to beat the president is greater with fiscal conservatives than it is with social conservatives. However, even among social conservatives, which we defined as being those who mentioned social issues as their top voting issues, 53 percent feel it is more important to beat the president, while 40 percent feel it is more important to support a candidate that they agree with on the issues.
When asked who they would support between a candidate who is closest to their views on major issues, but has not spent much time campaigning in the state, and a candidate who might not be closest to their views, but has spent a lot of time in the state, 79 percent said they would back a candidate who shares their views even if he or she was not often in Iowa asking for their support.
