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Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Runoff Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Runoff Poll

• Ted Cruz 52% {49%} [34%]
• David Dewhurst 42% {44%} [59%]
• Not sure 6% {7%} [7%]

Among Men

• Ted Cruz 54% {55%} [42%]
• David Dewhurst 39% {38%} [54%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [4%]

Among Women

• Ted Cruz 50% {44%} [26%]
• David Dewhurst 44% {49%} [64%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [10%]

Very Conservative

• Ted Cruz 63% {61%} [41%]
  
• David Dewhurst 32% {34%} [52%]
• Not sure 5% {5%} [7%]

Somewhat Conservative

• David Dewhurst 47% {49%} [69%]
• Ted Cruz 47% {45%} [28%]
  
• Not sure 6% {6%} [3%]

Age 18-45

• Ted Cruz 60% {46%} [34%]
• David Dewhurst 33% {46%} [61%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [5%]

Age 46-65

• Ted Cruz 59% {54%} [39%]
• David Dewhurst 35% {40%} [55%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [6%]

Older Than 65

• David Dewhurst 56% {47%} [63%]
• Ted Cruz 39% {45%} [28%]
• Not sure 5% {8%} [10%]

Already Voted (49%)

• Ted Cruz 55%
• David Dewhurst 40%
• Not sure 4%

Will Definitely Vote (51%)

• Ted Cruz 49%
• David Dewhurst 44%
• Not sure 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 53% {56%} [38%] (31%) {15%} [8%] / 32% {25%} [32%] (17%) {14%} [14%] {+21%}
• David Dewhurst 50% {52%} [61%] (47%) {41%} [42%] / 39% {33%} [25%] (22%) {19%} [16%] {+11%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% {40%} [41%] (34%) {36%}
• No 49% {50%} [45%] (48%) {53%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Ted Cruz 75% {71%} [45%]
• David Dewhurst 22% {26%} [52%]
• Not sure 2% {3%} [3%]

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• David Dewhurst 56% {57%} [67%]
• Ted Cruz 39% {34%} [27%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 62% {65%} [61%]
• Are not 38% {35%} [39%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Ted Cruz 54% {50%} [37%]
• David Dewhurst 40% {42%} [57%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Ted Cruz 50% {47%} [29%]
• David Dewhurst 45% {47%} [63%]
• Not sure 5% {6%} [8%]

Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the runoff election?

• Very excited 50% {48%}
• Somewhat excited 29% {30%}
• Not that excited 21% {22%}

Very Excited

• Ted Cruz 63% {59%}
• David Dewhurst 33% {36%}
• Not sure 4% {5%}

Somewhat Excited

• Ted Cruz 49% {43%}
• David Dewhurst 45% {51%}
• Not sure 6% {6%}

Not That Excited

• David Dewhurst 59% {50%}
• Ted Cruz 31% {36%}
• Not sure 10% {13%}

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Rick Perry, or does it not make a difference?

• More likely 16%
• Less likely 35%
• Doesn't make a difference 50%

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or does it not make a difference?

• More likely 31%
• Less likely 24%
• Doesn't make a difference 45%

Survey of 665 likely Republican runoff voters was conducted July 28-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Political ideology: 48% {52%} [55%] (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 25% {26%} [28%] (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 10% {13%} [8%] (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 4% {2%} [1%] (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 3% {7%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal. Age: 18-45: 24% {18%} [22%]; 46 to 65: 40% {44%} [44%]; Older than 65: 36% {38%} [34%]. Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Runoff Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Runoff Poll

• Ted Cruz 49% [34%]
• David Dewhurst 44% [59%]
• Not sure 7% [7%]

Among Men

• Ted Cruz 55% [42%]
• David Dewhurst 38% [54%]
• Not sure 8% [4%]

Among Women

• David Dewhurst 49% [64%]
• Ted Cruz 44% [26%]
• Not sure 6% [10%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 56% [38%] (31%) {15%} [8%] / 25% [32%] (17%) {14%} [14%] {+31%}
• David Dewhurst 52% [61%] (47%) {41%} [42%] / 33% [25%] (22%) {19%} [16%] {+19%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 40% [41%] (34%) {36%}
• No 50% [45%] (48%) {53%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Ted Cruz 71% [45%]
• David Dewhurst 26% [52%]
• Not sure 3% [3%]

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• David Dewhurst 57% [67%]
• Ted Cruz 34% [27%]
• Not sure 8% [6%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 65% [61%]
• Are not 35% [39%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Ted Cruz 50% [37%]
• David Dewhurst 42% [57%]
• Not sure 8% [6%]

Among Non-Evangelicals

• David Dewhurst 47% [63%]
• Ted Cruz 47% [29%]
• Not sure 6% [8%]

Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the runoff election?

• Very excited 48%
• Somewhat excited 30%
• Not that excited 22%

Very Excited

• Ted Cruz 59%
• David Dewhurst 36%
• Not sure 5%

Somewhat Excited

• David Dewhurst 51%
• Ted Cruz 43%
• Not sure 6%

Not That Excited

• David Dewhurst 50%
• Ted Cruz 36%
• Not sure 13%

Survey of 468 likely Republican runoff voters was conducted July 10-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 52% [55%] (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 26% [28%] (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 13% [8%] (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 7% [1%] (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal; 2% [1%] (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• David Dewhurst 46% (38%) {36%} [41%]
• Ted Cruz 29% (26%) {18%} [12%]
• Tom Leppert 15% (8%) {7%} [6%]
• Craig James 3% (7%) {4%}
• One of the other candidates 2% (4%)
• Undecided 5% (18%)

Very Conservative

• David Dewhurst 41% (35%) {39%} [45%]
• Ted Cruz 36% (32%) {22%} [14%]
• Tom Leppert 11% (5%) {6%} [3%]
• Craig James 3% (4%) {4%}
• One of the other candidates 3% (3%)
• Undecided 6% (21%)

Somewhat Conservative

• David Dewhurst 53% (45%) {38%} [38%]
• Ted Cruz 24% (23%) {14%} [10%]
• Tom Leppert 19% (7%) {7%} [9%]
• Craig James 1% (6%) {3%}
• One of the other candidates 1% (2%)
• Undecided 1% (17%)

If there was a runoff election for Senate between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst, who would you vote for?

• David Dewhurst 59%
• Ted Cruz 34%
• Not sure 7%

If there was a runoff election for Senate between Tom Leppert and David Dewhurst, who would you vote for?

• David Dewhurst 58%
• Tom Leppert 31%
• Not sure 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• David Dewhurst 61% (47%) {41%} [42%] / 25% (22%) {19%} [16%] {+36%}
• Tom Leppert 36% (20%) {20%} [13%] / 19% (15%) {16%} [13%] {+17%}
• Ted Cruz 38% (31%) {15%} [8%] / 32% (17%) {14%} [14%] {+6%}
• Craig James 14% (14%) {11%} / 32% (21%) {19%} {-18%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 41% (34%) {36%}
• No 45% (48%) {53%}

Tea Party Members 

• David Dewhurst 39% (35%) {39%}
  
• Ted Cruz 38% (35%) {23%}
  
• Tom Leppert 14% (5%) {4%}
• Craig James 3% (5%) {4%}
• One of the other candidates 2% (3%)
• Undecided 4% (18%)

Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters

• David Dewhurst 53% (41%) {34%}
• Ted Cruz 23% (20%) {14%}
• Tom Leppert 18% (11%) {8%}
• Craig James 1% (8%) {5%}
• One of the other candidates 2% (4%)
• Undecided 3% (15%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 61%
• Are not 39%

Survey of 482 likely Republican primary voters was conducted May 22-23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 55% (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 28% (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 8% (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 1% (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 1% (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• David Dewhurst 38% {36%} [41%]
• Ted Cruz 26% {18%} [12%]
• Tom Leppert 8% {7%} [6%]
• Craig James 7% {4%}
• Someone else 4%
• Undecided 18%

Very Conservative

• David Dewhurst 35% {39%} [45%]
• Ted Cruz 32% {22%} [14%]
• Tom Leppert 5% {6%} [3%]
• Craig James 4% {4%}
• Someone else 3%
• Undecided 21%

Somewhat Conservative

• David Dewhurst 45% {38%} [38%]
• Ted Cruz 23% {14%} [10%]
• Tom Leppert 7% {7%} [9%]
• Craig James 6% {3%}
• Someone else 2%
• Undecided 17%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• David Dewhurst 47% {41%} [42%] / 22% {19%} [16%] {+25%}
• Ted Cruz 31% {15%} [8%] / 17% {14%} [14%] {+14%}
• Tom Leppert 20% {20%} [13%] / 15% {16%} [13%] {+5%}
• Craig James 14% {11%} / 21% {19%} {-7%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 34% {36%}
• No 48% {53%}

Tea Party Members 

• David Dewhurst 35% {39%}
  
• Ted Cruz 35% {23%}
  
• Tom Leppert 5% {4%}
• Craig James 5% {4%}
• Someone else 3%
• Undecided 18%

Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters

• David Dewhurst 41% {34%}
• Ted Cruz 20% {14%}
• Tom Leppert 11% {8%}
• Craig James 8% {5%}
• Someone else 4%
• Undecided 15%

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted April 19-22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 79% {72%} [82%] Republican; 18% {23%} [17%] Independent/Other; 3% {5%} [2%] Democrat.  Political ideology: 47% {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 33% {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 12% {18%} [14%] Moderate; 6% {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.