Poll Watch: PPP Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016, and the Republican candidates for President were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President?

• Jeb Bush 28% (22%)
• Marco Rubio 22% (24%)
• Mike Huckabee 11% (10%) 
• Chris Christie 9% (10%)
• Paul Ryan 8% (10%)
• Condoleezza Rice 8% (12%)
• Sarah Palin 5% (3%)
• Rand Paul 3% (4%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (4%)

Among Men

• Jeb Bush 33% (23%)
• Marco Rubio 20% (28%)
• Chris Christie 8% (11%)
• Paul Ryan 8% (11%)
• Mike Huckabee 8% (9%)
• Condoleezza Rice 6% (8%)  
• Sarah Palin 6% (2%)
• Rand Paul 3% (4%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (3%)

Among Women

• Jeb Bush 23% (21%)
• Marco Rubio 23% (20%)
• Mike Huckabee 13% (11%)
• Chris Christie 9% (9%)
• Condoleezza Rice 9% (15%) 
• Paul Ryan 8% (9%) 
• Rand Paul 3% (5%)
• Sarah Palin 3% (3%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (2%)
• Someone else/Not sure 6% (5%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Marco Rubio 88% / 8% {+80%}
• Jeb Bush 85% (87%) / 9% (8%) {+76%}
• Paul Ryan 85% (84%) / 9% (9%) {+76%}
• Condoleezza Rice 84% (90%) / 8% (6%) {+76%}
• Chris Christie 59% (71%) / 20% (13%) {+39%}
• Mike Huckabee 76% (70%) / 10% (13%) {+66%}
• Sarah Palin 65% (66%) / 24% (23%) {+41%}
• Rick Santorum 57% (60%) / 16% (19%) {+41%}
• Rand Paul 51% (52%) / 28% (25%) {+23%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 29% (28%)
• No 60% (58%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 45% (43%)
• Are not 55% (57%)

Survey of 624 Republican voters was conducted November 3-4, 2012. Political ideology: 42% (40%) Somewhat conservative; 34% (33%) Very conservative; 19% (20%) Moderate; 3% (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP Iowa 2016 Republican Presidential Survey

PPP Iowa 2016 GOP Presidential Poll

If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016, and the Republican candidates for President were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President?

• Mike Huckabee 15% [17%] (16%)
• Chris Christie 12% [16%] (15%)
• Paul Ryan 12% [6%] (5%)
• Marco Rubio 12% [10%] (7%) 
• Jeb Bush 11% [8%] (10%)
• Rick Santorum 10% [17%] (16%)
• Condoleezza Rice 9% 
• Rand Paul 5% [11%] (9%)
• Sarah Palin 4% [4%] (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 8% [8%] (10%)

Among Men

• Marco Rubio 15% [8%] (9%)
• Chris Christie 14% [15%] (17%)
• Mike Huckabee 13% [13%] (11%)
• Jeb Bush 11% [8%] (9%) 
• Condoleezza Rice 10%
• Rick Santorum 10% [17%] (19%)
• Paul Ryan 7% [8%] (3%) 
• Rand Paul 6% [16%] (10%) 
• Sarah Palin 6% [6%] (11%)
• Someone else/Not sure 8% [5%] (11%)

Among Women

• Paul Ryan 17% [5%] (8%) 
  
• Mike Huckabee 17% [21%] (22%)
• Jeb Bush 11% [8%] (12%)
• Rick Santorum 11% [17%] (14%)
• Chris Christie 10% [16%] (13%)
• Marco Rubio 10% [11%] (4%)
• Rand Paul 5% [5%] (8%)
• Sarah Palin 3% [3%] (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 9% [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Paul Ryan 83% [49%] (44%) / 13% [14%] (8%) {+70%}
• Condoleezza Rice 75% / 13% {+62%} 
• Mike Huckabee 68% [68%] (69%) / 16% [20%] (12%) {+52%}
• Jeb Bush 60% [53%] (62%) / 11% [19%] (9%) {+49%} 
• Marco Rubio 59% [57%] (46%) / 11% [13%] (7%) {+48%}
• Rick Santorum 64% [65%] (68%) / 18% [22%] (17%) {+46%}
• Chris Christie 55% [57%] (50%) / 21% [17%] (16%) {+34%}
• Sarah Palin 60% [60%] (70%) / 26% [26%] (17%) {+34%}
• Rand Paul 48% [49%] (54%) / 28% [29%] (15%) {+20%} 

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 21% [25%] (31%)
• No 66% [64%] (50%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 53% [46%] (60%)
• Are not 47% [54%] (40%)

Survey of 470 Republican voters was conducted November 3-4, 2012. Party ID: 78% [81%] (89%) Republican; 17% [17%] (10%) Independent/Other; 4% [3%] (1%) Democrat. Political ideology: 39% [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 36% [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 19% [16%] (14%) Moderate; 3% [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 3% [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016, and the Republican candidates for President were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President?

• Marco Rubio 24%
• Jeb Bush 22%
• Condoleezza Rice 12%
• Chris Christie 10%
• Paul Ryan 10%
• Mike Huckabee 10%
• Rand Paul 4%
• Sarah Palin 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 4%

Among Men

• Marco Rubio 28%
• Jeb Bush 23%
• Chris Christie 11%
• Paul Ryan 11%
• Mike Huckabee 9%
• Condoleezza Rice 8% 
• Rand Paul 4%
• Sarah Palin 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 3%

Among Women

• Jeb Bush 21%
• Marco Rubio 20%
• Condoleezza Rice 15%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Chris Christie 9%
• Paul Ryan 9% 
• Rand Paul 5%
• Sarah Palin 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 28%
• No 58%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 43%
• Are not 57%

Among Evangelical Christians

• Marco Rubio 29%
• Jeb Bush 17%
• Mike Huckabee 14%
• Condoleezza Rice 11%
• Paul Ryan 11%
• Chris Christie 8%
• Rand Paul 4%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Sarah Palin 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 3%

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Jeb Bush 27%
• Marco Rubio 20%
• Condoleezza Rice 13%
• Chris Christie 11%
• Paul Ryan 10%
• Mike Huckabee 7%
• Rand Paul 5%
• Sarah Palin 4%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Condoleezza Rice 90% / 6% {+84%}
• Jeb Bush 87% / 8% {+79%}
• Paul Ryan 84% / 9% {+75%}
• Chris Christie 71% / 13% {+58%}
• Mike Huckabee 70% / 13% {+57%}
• Sarah Palin 66% / 23% {+43%}
• Rick Santorum 60% / 19% {+41%}
• Rand Paul 52% / 25% {+27%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio's job performance?

• Approve 87%
• Disapprove 9%

Survey of 599 Republican primary voters was conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% Somewhat conservative; 33% Very conservative; 20% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 3% Very liberal. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Runoff Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Runoff Poll

• Ted Cruz 52% {49%} [34%]
• David Dewhurst 42% {44%} [59%]
• Not sure 6% {7%} [7%]

Among Men

• Ted Cruz 54% {55%} [42%]
• David Dewhurst 39% {38%} [54%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [4%]

Among Women

• Ted Cruz 50% {44%} [26%]
• David Dewhurst 44% {49%} [64%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [10%]

Very Conservative

• Ted Cruz 63% {61%} [41%]
  
• David Dewhurst 32% {34%} [52%]
• Not sure 5% {5%} [7%]

Somewhat Conservative

• David Dewhurst 47% {49%} [69%]
• Ted Cruz 47% {45%} [28%]
  
• Not sure 6% {6%} [3%]

Age 18-45

• Ted Cruz 60% {46%} [34%]
• David Dewhurst 33% {46%} [61%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [5%]

Age 46-65

• Ted Cruz 59% {54%} [39%]
• David Dewhurst 35% {40%} [55%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [6%]

Older Than 65

• David Dewhurst 56% {47%} [63%]
• Ted Cruz 39% {45%} [28%]
• Not sure 5% {8%} [10%]

Already Voted (49%)

• Ted Cruz 55%
• David Dewhurst 40%
• Not sure 4%

Will Definitely Vote (51%)

• Ted Cruz 49%
• David Dewhurst 44%
• Not sure 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 53% {56%} [38%] (31%) {15%} [8%] / 32% {25%} [32%] (17%) {14%} [14%] {+21%}
• David Dewhurst 50% {52%} [61%] (47%) {41%} [42%] / 39% {33%} [25%] (22%) {19%} [16%] {+11%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% {40%} [41%] (34%) {36%}
• No 49% {50%} [45%] (48%) {53%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Ted Cruz 75% {71%} [45%]
• David Dewhurst 22% {26%} [52%]
• Not sure 2% {3%} [3%]

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• David Dewhurst 56% {57%} [67%]
• Ted Cruz 39% {34%} [27%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 62% {65%} [61%]
• Are not 38% {35%} [39%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Ted Cruz 54% {50%} [37%]
• David Dewhurst 40% {42%} [57%]
• Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Ted Cruz 50% {47%} [29%]
• David Dewhurst 45% {47%} [63%]
• Not sure 5% {6%} [8%]

Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the runoff election?

• Very excited 50% {48%}
• Somewhat excited 29% {30%}
• Not that excited 21% {22%}

Very Excited

• Ted Cruz 63% {59%}
• David Dewhurst 33% {36%}
• Not sure 4% {5%}

Somewhat Excited

• Ted Cruz 49% {43%}
• David Dewhurst 45% {51%}
• Not sure 6% {6%}

Not That Excited

• David Dewhurst 59% {50%}
• Ted Cruz 31% {36%}
• Not sure 10% {13%}

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Rick Perry, or does it not make a difference?

• More likely 16%
• Less likely 35%
• Doesn't make a difference 50%

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or does it not make a difference?

• More likely 31%
• Less likely 24%
• Doesn't make a difference 45%

Survey of 665 likely Republican runoff voters was conducted July 28-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Political ideology: 48% {52%} [55%] (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 25% {26%} [28%] (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 10% {13%} [8%] (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 4% {2%} [1%] (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 3% {7%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal. Age: 18-45: 24% {18%} [22%]; 46 to 65: 40% {44%} [44%]; Older than 65: 36% {38%} [34%]. Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Presidential Poll

If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016, and the Republican candidates for President were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President?

• Rick Santorum 17% (16%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% (16%)
• Chris Christie 16% (15%)
• Rand Paul 11% (9%)
• Marco Rubio 10% (7%)
• Jeb Bush 8% (10%)
• Paul Ryan 6% (5%)
• Scott Walker 4%
• Sarah Palin 4% (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 8% (10%)

Among Men

• Rick Santorum 17% (19%)
• Rand Paul 16% (10%)
• Chris Christie 15% (17%)
• Mike Huckabee 13% (11%)
• Paul Ryan 8% (3%)
• Jeb Bush 8% (9%)
• Marco Rubio 8% (9%)
• Sarah Palin 6% (11%)
• Scott Walker 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (11%)

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 21% (22%)
• Rick Santorum 17% (14%)
• Chris Christie 16% (13%)
• Marco Rubio 11% (4%)
• Jeb Bush 8% (12%)
• Paul Ryan 5% (8%)
• Rand Paul 5% (8%)
• Scott Walker 3%
• Sarah Palin 3% (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 10% (10%)

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% (31%)
• No 64% (50%)

Among Tea Party Members

• Rand Paul 18% (9%)
• Rick Santorum 17% (12%) 
• Mike Huckabee 12% (11%)
• Paul Ryan 12% (10%)
• Chris Christie 11% (18%)
• Marco Rubio 10% (13%)
• Scott Walker 7%
• Jeb Bush 5% (6%) 
• Sarah Palin 3% (12%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (8%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Voters

• Mike Huckabee 19% (14%)
• Rick Santorum 17% (16%)
• Chris Christie 16% (16%)  
• Rand Paul 10% (9%)
• Marco Rubio 10% (4%)
• Jeb Bush 9% (13%)
• Paul Ryan 5% (4%)
• Sarah Palin 4% (11%)
• Scott Walker 3%
• Someone else/Not sure 9% (14%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 46% (60%)
• Are not 54% (40%)

Among Evangelical Christians

• Rick Santorum 23% (20%) 
• Mike Huckabee 19% (21%)
• Chris Christie 16% (17%)
• Marco Rubio 12% (7%)
• Paul Ryan 9% (5%)
• Jeb Bush 7% (5%)
• Rand Paul 6% (9%)
• Sarah Palin 5% (10%)
• Scott Walker 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (6%)

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Chris Christie 16% (13%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% (9%)
• Rand Paul 15% (8%)
• Rick Santorum 13% (11%)
• Jeb Bush 9% (19%)
• Marco Rubio 7% (6%)
• Scott Walker 6%
• Paul Ryan 5% (6%) 
• Sarah Palin 4% (10%) 
• Someone else/Not sure 11% (18%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 68% (69%) / 20% (12%) {+48%}
• Marco Rubio 57% (46%) / 13% (7%) {+44%}
• Rick Santorum 65% (68%) / 22% (17%) {+43%}
• Chris Christie 57% (50%) / 17% (16%) {+40%}
• Scott Walker 50% / 12% {+38%}
• Paul Ryan 49% (44%) / 14% (8%) {+35%}
• Sarah Palin 60% (70%) / 26% (17%) {+34%}
• Jeb Bush 53% (62%) / 19% (9%) {+34%}
• Rand Paul 49% (54%) / 29% (15%) {+20%}

Survey of 363 usual GOP primary voters was conducted July 12-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 81% (89%) Republican; 17% (10%) Independent/Other; 3% (1%) Democrat. Political ideology: 40% (35%) Somewhat conservative; 37% (46%) Very conservative; 16% (14%) Moderate; 6% (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Runoff Survey

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Senate Runoff Poll

• Ted Cruz 49% [34%]
• David Dewhurst 44% [59%]
• Not sure 7% [7%]

Among Men

• Ted Cruz 55% [42%]
• David Dewhurst 38% [54%]
• Not sure 8% [4%]

Among Women

• David Dewhurst 49% [64%]
• Ted Cruz 44% [26%]
• Not sure 6% [10%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 56% [38%] (31%) {15%} [8%] / 25% [32%] (17%) {14%} [14%] {+31%}
• David Dewhurst 52% [61%] (47%) {41%} [42%] / 33% [25%] (22%) {19%} [16%] {+19%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 40% [41%] (34%) {36%}
• No 50% [45%] (48%) {53%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Ted Cruz 71% [45%]
• David Dewhurst 26% [52%]
• Not sure 3% [3%]

Among Non-Tea Party Republicans

• David Dewhurst 57% [67%]
• Ted Cruz 34% [27%]
• Not sure 8% [6%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 65% [61%]
• Are not 35% [39%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Ted Cruz 50% [37%]
• David Dewhurst 42% [57%]
• Not sure 8% [6%]

Among Non-Evangelicals

• David Dewhurst 47% [63%]
• Ted Cruz 47% [29%]
• Not sure 6% [8%]

Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the runoff election?

• Very excited 48%
• Somewhat excited 30%
• Not that excited 22%

Very Excited

• Ted Cruz 59%
• David Dewhurst 36%
• Not sure 5%

Somewhat Excited

• David Dewhurst 51%
• Ted Cruz 43%
• Not sure 6%

Not That Excited

• David Dewhurst 50%
• Ted Cruz 36%
• Not sure 13%

Survey of 468 likely Republican runoff voters was conducted July 10-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 52% [55%] (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 26% [28%] (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 13% [8%] (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 7% [1%] (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal; 2% [1%] (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

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Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Presidential Poll

If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016, and the Republican candidates for President were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President?

• Rick Santorum 16%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Chris Christie 15%
• Jeb Bush 10%
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Rand Paul 9%
• Marco Rubio 7%
• Paul Ryan 5%
• Someone else/Not sure 10%

Among Men

• Rick Santorum 19%
• Chris Christie 17%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Rand Paul 10%
• Jeb Bush 9%
• Marco Rubio 9%
• Paul Ryan 3%
• Someone else/Not sure 11%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Rick Santorum 14%
• Chris Christie 13%
• Jeb Bush 12%
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Paul Ryan 8%
• Rand Paul 8%
• Marco Rubio 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 10%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 69% / 12% {+57%}
• Sarah Palin 70% / 17% {+53%}
• Jeb Bush 62% / 9% {+53%}
• Rick Santorum 68% / 17% {+51%}
• Rand Paul 54% / 15% {+39%}
• Marco Rubio 46% / 7% {+39%}
• Paul Ryan 44% / 8% {+36%}
• Chris Christie 50% / 16% {+34%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 31%
• No 50%

Among Tea Party Members

• Chris Christie 18%
• Marco Rubio 13%
• Rick Santorum 12%
• Sarah Palin 12%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Paul Ryan 10%
• Rand Paul 9%
• Jeb Bush 6%
• Someone else/Not sure 8%

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Voters

• Chris Christie 16%
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Mike Huckabee 14%
• Jeb Bush 13%
• Sarah Palin 11% 
• Rand Paul 9%
• Paul Ryan 4%
• Marco Rubio 4%
• Someone else/Not sure 14%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 60%
• Are not 40%

Among Evangelical Christians

• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Rick Santorum 20%
• Chris Christie 17%
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Rand Paul 9%
• Marco Rubio 7%
• Paul Ryan 5%
• Jeb Bush 5%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Jeb Bush 19%
• Chris Christie 13%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Mike Huckabee 9%
• Rand Paul 8%
• Paul Ryan 6%
• Marco Rubio 6%
• Someone else/Not sure 18%

Survey of 346 GOP primary voters was conducted May 3-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 89% Republican; 10% Independent/Other; 1% Democrat. Political ideology: 46% Very conservative; 35% Somewhat conservative; 14% Moderate; 3% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 34% (23%) {22%} [18%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (20%) {27%} [20%] (28%) {25%} [24%] 
• Rick Santorum 31% (38%) {4%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [4%] 
• Newt Gingrich 20% (17%) {35%} [28%] (15%) {10%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [13%] (26%) {23%} [24%]  
• Ron Paul 9% (13%) {11%} [5%] (5%) {11%} [6%] (9%) {6%} [11%] (12%) {13%} [12%]

Very Conservative: 34% (36%)

• Rick Santorum 39% (53%) {6%}
• Newt Gingrich 27% (20%) {38%}  
• Mitt Romney 23% (15%) {17%}
• Ron Paul 7% (8%) {10%}

Somewhat Conservative: 42% (39%)

• Mitt Romney 43% (26%) {24%}
• Rick Santorum 30% (37%) {3%}
• Newt Gingrich 17% (14%) {36%}  
• Ron Paul 7% (10%) {11%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 34% (19%) {21%}
• Rick Santorum 29% (40%) {3%}
  
• Newt Gingrich 20% (18%) {36%}  
• Ron Paul 11% (15%) {13%}

Among Women

• Rick Santorum 33% (37%) {5%}
  
• Mitt Romney 33% (27%) {22%}
• Newt Gingrich 19% (16%) {34%}  
• Ron Paul 7% (12%) {9%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 53% (48%) {38%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 47% (52%) {62%}

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 20% (20%) {17%}
• Rick Santorum 18% (18%) {5%}
• Mitt Romney 18% (17%) {17%}
• Ron Paul 8% (9%) {7%}
• Someone else/Not sure 36% (37%) {29%}

If the Republican candidates for President were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

• Rick Santorum 41% (50%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (28%)
• Ron Paul 11% (15%)
• Not sure 8% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 59% (64%) / 30% (22%) {+29%}
• Mitt Romney 54% (44%) {55%} [48%] (55%) {52%} [51%] (50%) {55%} [54%] (52%) {50%} [51%] (55%) {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 35% (43%) {31%} [39%] (31%) {32%} [33%] (31%) {27%} [30%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (25%) {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+19%}
• Newt Gingrich 47% (42%) {60%} [68%] (57%) {46%} {36%} [39%] (54%) {50%} [50%] (55%) {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 42% (44%) {28%} [23%] (30%) {39%} {49%} [44%] (30%) {33%} [32%] (26%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+5%} 
• Ron Paul 31% (35%) {34%} [31%] (29%) [44%] / 57% (51%) {52%} [52%] (54%) [30%] {-26%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 34% (29%) {28%} [32%] (32%) {38%}
• No 52% (55%) {57%} [54%] (52%) {46%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Rick Santorum 37% (51%)
• Newt Gingrich 28% (24%) 
• Mitt Romney 24% (12%)
• Ron Paul 7% (8%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Voters

• Mitt Romney 40% (28%)  
• Rick Santorum 28% (34%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (14%)   
• Ron Paul 10% (16%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 48% (49%)
• Are not 52% (51%)

Among Evangelical Christians

• Rick Santorum 43% (45%)
• Mitt Romney 23% (18%) 
• Newt Gingrich 22% (21%)  
• Ron Paul 6% (8%)

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 43% (28%)  
• Rick Santorum 20% (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% (14%)   
• Ron Paul 12% (19%)

Survey of 734 usual Republican primary voters was conducted March 15-17, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42% (39%) {38%} [39%] (45%) {43%} [42%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (38%) {44%} [40%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 34% (36%) {42%} [36%] (32%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {35%} [38%] (39%) {31%} [38%] (39%) Very conservative; 18% (17%) {16%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [17%] (20%) {18%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [19%] (15%) Moderate; 4% (6%) {3%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-10, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-11, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [25%] (19%) {19%} [20%] (23%) 
• Rick Santorum 36% [22%] (1%) {1%} 
• Newt Gingrich 15% [26%] (20%) {14%} [8%] (16%)  
• Ron Paul 11% [11%] (5%) {7%} [8%] (13%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [16%] (9%) {12%} [16%] (18%)

Already Voted (14%)

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Rick Santorum 34%
• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Ron Paul 8%

Plan to Vote on Election Day (86%)

• Rick Santorum 36%
• Mitt Romney 36%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 72% [44%] (36%) {29%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 28% [56%] (64%) {71%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 57% [59%] / 34% [24%] {+23%}
• Mitt Romney 52% [47%] (47%) {55%} [52%] (55%) {53%} [53%] / 40% [37%] (37%) {33%} [30%] (25%) {26%} [25%] {+12%} 
• Newt Gingrich 46% [47%] (62%) {56%} (42%) {46%} [53%] / 40% [37%] (24%) {32%} (34%) {29%} [27%] {+6%}
• Ron Paul 38% [31%] (33%) {32%} / 51% [52%] (46%) {49%} {-13%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 27% [28%] (35%) {33%}
• No 60% [57%] (50%) {54%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 43%
• Are not 57%

Which best describes when you decided who to vote for: in the last few days, the last week, the last month, or earlier than that?

• In the last few days 12%
• In the last week 10%
• In the last month 37%
• Earlier than that 30%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

• He was 42%
• He was not 37%
• Not sure 21%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rush Limbaugh?

• Favorable 45%
• Unfavorable 28%

Survey of 666 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 76% Republican; 19% Independent; 5% Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% [35%] (42%) {37%} [41%] (38%) {34%} Very conservative; 35% [38%] (37%) {36%} [38%] (39%) {46%} Somewhat conservative; 15% [21%] (16%) {18%} [16%] (17%) {16%} Moderate; 5% [4%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [1%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-30, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney up 40-23 with folks who decided in the last few days in Ohio.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Survey on Abortion

Quinnipiac Survey on Abortion

Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

• Legal in all cases 22%
• Legal in most cases 33%
• Illegal in most cases 25%
• Illegal in all cases 14%

Among Democrats

• Legal in all cases 33%
• Legal in most cases 40%
• Illegal in most cases 12%
• Illegal in all cases 10%

Among Republicans

• Legal in all cases 12%
• Legal in most cases 21%
• Illegal in most cases 37%
• Illegal in all cases 24%

Among Independents

• Legal in all cases 21%
• Legal in most cases 37%
• Illegal in most cases 27%
• Illegal in all cases 9%

College Degree

• Legal in all cases 26%
• Legal in most cases 36%
• Illegal in most cases 24%
• Illegal in all cases 8%

No College Degree

• Legal in all cases 20%
• Legal in most cases 31%
• Illegal in most cases 25%
• Illegal in all cases 17%

White Born-Again Evangelicals

• Legal in all cases 8%
• Legal in most cases 18%
• Illegal in most cases 41%
• Illegal in all cases 29%

In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?

• Agree 64%
• Disagree 31%

Among Democrats

• Agree 80%
• Disagree 16%

Among Republicans

• Agree 44%
• Disagree 51%

Among Independents

• Agree 67%
• Disagree 29%

College Degree

• Agree 72%
• Disagree 26%

No College Degree

• Agree 60%
• Disagree 34%

White Born-Again Evangelicals

• Agree 36%
• Disagree 60%

Is your opinion of Planned Parenthood favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 55%
• Unfavorable 22%

Among Democrats

• Favorable 74%
• Unfavorable 4%

Among Republicans

• Favorable 32%
• Unfavorable 43%

Among Independents

• Favorable 57%
• Unfavorable 19%

Do you support or oppose cutting off federal government funding to Planned Parenthood?

• Support 31%
• Oppose 60%

Among Democrats

• Support 12%
• Oppose 79%

Among Republicans

• Support 51%
• Oppose 38%

Among Independents

• Support 30%
• Oppose 61% 

Among Men

• Support 36%
• Oppose 53%

Among Women

• Support 25%
• Oppose 65%

If you agreed with a presidential candidate on other issues, but not on the issue of abortion, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not?

• Yes 62%
• No 29%

Survey of 2,605 registered voters was conducted February 14-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percentage points. Party ID: 30% Democrat; 28% Republican; 33% Independent.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Rick Santorum 38% {4%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [4%] 
• Mitt Romney 23% {22%} [18%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (20%) {27%} [20%] (28%) {25%} [24%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% {35%} [28%] (15%) {10%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [13%] (26%) {23%} [24%]  
• Ron Paul 13% {11%} [5%] (5%) {11%} [6%] (9%) {6%} [11%] (12%) {13%} [12%]

Very Conservative (36%)

• Rick Santorum 53% {6%}
• Newt Gingrich 20% {38%}  
• Mitt Romney 15% {17%}
• Ron Paul 8% {10%}

Somewhat Conservative (39%)

• Rick Santorum 37% {3%}
• Mitt Romney 26% {24%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% {36%}  
• Ron Paul 10% {11%}

Among Men

• Rick Santorum 40% {3%}
  
• Mitt Romney 19% {21%}
• Newt Gingrich 18% {36%}  
• Ron Paul 15% {13%}

Among Women

• Rick Santorum 37% {5%}
  
• Mitt Romney 27% {22%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% {34%}  
• Ron Paul 12% {9%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 48% {38%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 52% {62%}

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 20% {17%}
• Rick Santorum 18% {5%}
• Mitt Romney 17% {17%}
• Ron Paul 9% {7%}
• Someone else/Not sure 37% {29%}

If the Republican candidates for President were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

• Rick Santorum 50%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Ron Paul 15%
• Not sure 8%

If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

• Rick Santorum 56%
• Mitt Romney 32%
• Not sure 12%

If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Newt Gingrich 42%
• Not sure 14%

If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 61%
• Ron Paul 26%
• Not sure 13%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 64% / 22% {+42%}
• Mitt Romney 44% {55%} [48%] (55%) {52%} [51%] (50%) {55%} [54%] (52%) {50%} [51%] (55%) {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 43% {31%} [39%] (31%) {32%} [33%] (31%) {27%} [30%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (25%) {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+1%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% {60%} [68%] (57%) {46%} {36%} [39%] (54%) {50%} [50%] (55%) {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 44% {28%} [23%] (30%) {39%} {49%} [44%] (30%) {33%} [32%] (26%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {-2%} 
• Ron Paul 35% {34%} [31%] (29%) [44%] / 51% {52%} [52%] (54%) [30%] {-16%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 29% {28%} [32%] (32%) {38%}
• No 55% {57%} [54%] (52%) {46%}

Among Tea Party Members

• Rick Santorum 51%
• Newt Gingrich 24%  
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Ron Paul 8%

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Voters

• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 28% 
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 14%  

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 49%
• Are not 51%

Among Evangelical Christians

• Rick Santorum 45%
• Newt Gingrich 21%  
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 8%

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Rick Santorum 32%
• Mitt Romney 28% 
• Ron Paul 19%
• Newt Gingrich 14%  

Survey of 656 usual Republican primary voters was conducted February 9-10, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 83% Republican; 17% Independent.  Political ideology: 39% {38%} [39%] (45%) {43%} [42%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (38%) {44%} [40%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 36% {42%} [36%] (32%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {35%} [38%] (39%) {31%} [38%] (39%) Very conservative; 17% {16%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [17%] (20%) {18%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [19%] (15%) Moderate; 6% {3%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [4%] (3%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-11, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Minnesota 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Minnesota 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Rick Santorum 33% {29%} [17%] 
• Mitt Romney 24% {27%} [18%] (11%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% {22%} [36%] (5%) 
• Ron Paul 20% {19%} [13%] (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% {3%} [15%] (7%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 65% {63%} [37%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 35% {37%} [63%]

Strongly Committed to That Candidate

• Rick Santorum 29% {25%}
  
• Newt Gingrich 25% {24%}
• Mitt Romney 24% {29%}
• Ron Paul 22% {22%}

Might End Up Supporting Someone Else

• Rick Santorum 41% {38%}
• Mitt Romney 24% {26%}
• Newt Gingrich 17% {20%} 
• Ron Paul 17% {17%}

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 25% {25%} [21%] 
  
• Newt Gingrich 20% {20%} [16%]
• Mitt Romney 20% {19%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 10% {9%} [10%]
• Someone else/Not sure 24% {27%} [37%]

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 35% {39%}
• Newt Gingrich 23% {24%}
• Rick Santorum 17% {13%}
• Ron Paul 11% {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 14% {14%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 74% {72%} [56%] / 17% {18%} [24%] {+57%}
• Ron Paul 49% {48%} [36%] / 39% {41%} [45%] {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 47% {47%} [59%] (35%) / 40% {39%} [25%] (41%) {+7%}
• Mitt Romney 48% {50%} [50%] (45%) / 41% {39%} [36%] (37%) {+7%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33% {30%} [32%]
• No 55% {56%} [49%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 49% {48%}
• Are not 51% {52%}

Survey of 864 likely Republican caucus voters was conducted February 4 and 6, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 41% {41%} [43%] (37%) Very conservative; 35% {36%} [37%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 17% {16%} [14%] (15%) Moderate; 5% {4%} [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% (40%) {18%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 27% (26%) {4%} 
• Newt Gingrich 21% (18%) {37%} [9%]
• Ron Paul 13% (12%) {6%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 2% (3%) {16%} [13%]

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 69% (67%) {34%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 31% (33%) {66%}

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 25% (24%) {18%}
• Rick Santorum 23% (23%) {3%} 
• Mitt Romney 17% (15%) {16%}
• Ron Paul 10% (10%) {5%}
• Someone else/Not sure 25% (28%) {44%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 49% (51%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% (19%)
• Rick Santorum 12% (11%)
• Ron Paul 9% (7%)
• Someone else/Not sure 11% (13%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 71% (68%) / 19% (21%) {+52%}
• Mitt Romney 60% (60%) {52%} [52%] (60%) / 32% (31%) {35%} [34%] (22%) {+28%} 
• Newt Gingrich 48% (49%) {64%} (54%) / 40% (41%) {23%} (27%) {+8%}
• Ron Paul 41% (38%) {34%} / 49% (52%) {48%} {-8%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 35% (34%) {32%}
• No 53% (53%) {57%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 45% (46%)
• Are not 55% (54%)

Survey of 938 likely Colorado Republican caucus voters was conducted February 4 and 6, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 47% (47%) {35%} [35%] Very conservative; 34% (35%) {41%} [37%] Somewhat conservative; 14% (12%) {15%} [21%] Moderate; 4% (5%) {5%} [5%] Somewhat liberal; 2% (1%) {5%} [2%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2011 are in parentheses. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Minnesota 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Minnesota 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Rick Santorum 29% [17%] 
• Mitt Romney 27% [18%] (11%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% [36%] (5%) 
• Ron Paul 19% [13%] (9%)
• Someone else/Not sure 3% [15%] (7%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 63% [37%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 37% [63%]

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 25% [21%] 
  
• Newt Gingrich 20% [16%]
• Mitt Romney 19% [16%]
• Ron Paul 9% [10%]
• Someone else/Not sure 27% [37%]

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Newt Gingrich 24%
• Rick Santorum 13%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Someone else/Not sure 14%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 72% [56%] / 18% [24%] {+54%}
• Mitt Romney 50% [50%] (45%) / 39% [36%] (37%) {+11%}
• Newt Gingrich 47% [59%] (35%) / 39% [25%] (41%) {+8%}
• Ron Paul 48% [36%] / 41% [45%] {+7%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 30% [32%]
• No 56% [49%]

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 48%
• Are not 52%

Survey of 410 likely Republican caucus voters was conducted February 4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Political ideology: 41% [43%] (37%) Very conservative; 36% [37%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 16% [14%] (15%) Moderate; 4% [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Mitt Romney 40% {18%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 26% {4%} 
• Newt Gingrich 18% {37%} [9%]
• Ron Paul 12% {6%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 3% {16%} [13%]

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 67% {34%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 33% {66%}

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 24% {18%}
• Rick Santorum 23% {3%} 
• Mitt Romney 15% {16%}
• Ron Paul 10% {5%}
• Someone else/Not sure 28% {44%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 51%
• Newt Gingrich 19%
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Someone else/Not sure 13%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 68% / 21% {+47%}
• Mitt Romney 60% {52%} [52%] (60%) / 31% {35%} [34%] (22%) {+29%} 
• Newt Gingrich 49% {64%} (54%) / 41% {23%} (27%) {+8%}
• Ron Paul 38% {34%} / 52% {48%} {-14%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 34% {32%}
• No 53% {57%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 46%
• Are not 54%

Survey of 527 likely Colorado Republican caucus voters was conducted February 4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 47% {35%} [35%] Very conservative; 35% {41%} [37%] Somewhat conservative; 12% {15%} [21%] Moderate; 5% {5%} [5%] Somewhat liberal; 1% {5%} [2%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2011 are in parentheses. 

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Rick Santorum

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 37% [35%] (34%) {24%} [23%] (8%) {15%}
• Mitt Romney 28% [29%] (28%) {29%} [30%] (16%) {30%}
• Rick Santorum 16% [15%] (14%) {14%} [19%] (4%) 
• Ron Paul 14% [15%] (15%) {15%} [9%] (5%) {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [5%] (2%) {6%} [9%] (7%) {11%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 39% [39%] (38%)
• Mitt Romney 26% [27%] (26%)
• Ron Paul 15% [16%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 15% [14%] (10%)
• Someone else/Not sure 4% [4%] (2%)

Among Women

• Newt Gingrich 34% [31%] (29%)
• Mitt Romney 29% [32%] (30%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [17%] (18%)
• Ron Paul 13% [14%] (14%)
• Someone else/Not sure 7% [6%] (2%)

Very Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 44% [41%] (39%)
  
• Rick Santorum 21% [22%] (17%) 
• Mitt Romney 20% [21%] (23%)
  
• Ron Paul 10% [10%] (14%)
  
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [5%] (2%)

Somewhat Conservative

• Newt Gingrich 37% [36%] (34%)
  
• Mitt Romney 32% [34%] (33%)
• Rick Santorum 14% [14%] (13%) 
  
• Ron Paul 13% [14%] (12%)
  
• Someone else/Not sure 4% [2%] (1%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 78% [77%] (80%) {65%} [59%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 22% [23%] (20%) {35%} [41%]

Among Those Strongly Committed to Candidate

• Newt Gingrich 40% [39%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [32%] (30%)
• Rick Santorum 15% [14%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 14% [15%] (14%)

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 22% [20%] (16%) {17%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 18% [17%] (17%) {20%} [14%]
• Mitt Romney 17% [16%] (18%) {17%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 11% [10%] (11%) {9%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 32% [37%] (22%) {16%} [26%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 55% [54%] (53%) {53%} [63%] (34%) {31%} [25%] / 35% [35%] (41%) {30%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [7%] {+20%} 
• Newt Gingrich 54% [53%] (54%) {51%} [49%] (42%) {37%} [54%] / 37% [38%] (38%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {44%} [25%] {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 51% [51%] (54%) {57%} [60%] (52%) {56%} [60%] / 42% [40%] (41%) {33%} [29%] (32%) {27%} [22%] {+9%}
• Ron Paul 38% [39%] (40%) {38%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [47%] / 53% [51%] (49%) {52%} [54%] (35%) {31%} [19%] {-15%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% [25%] (28%) {30%} [31%]
• No 65% [66%] (65%) {57%} [57%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 52% [46%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 18% [21%] (18%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [17%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 12% [14%] (18%)
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [1%] (0%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 56% [56%] (52%) {56%} [57%]
• Are not 44% [44%] (48%) {44%} [43%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 41% [40%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 21% [22%] (20%)
• Rick Santorum 21% [19%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 12% [14%] (18%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% [6%] (1%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the media?

• Favorable 14%
• Unfavorable 77%

Did you watch the debate last night, or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Watched 60%
• Did not 40%

Watched Thursday Night's Debate

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Rick Santorum 13%

Are you familiar with accusations by Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife that he wanted to have an ‘open marriage,’ or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Familiar 86%
• Not familiar 14%

(Among those familiar) Do the accusations give you major concerns about Newt Gingrich, some concerns, or do they not concern you at all? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• Major concerns 21%
• Some concerns 26%
• No concerns 51%

(Among those familiar) Do you think the accusations against Newt Gingrich by his ex-wife are true, or not? (Asked only of Friday respondents)

• True 31%
• Not true 35%
• Not sure 34%

Survey of 1,540 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted January 18-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 75% [76%] (77%) {80%} [82%] (80%) {78%} [81%] Republican; 21% [20%] (16%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {19%} [18%] Independent/Other; 4% [4%] (7%) {3%} [3%] (1%) {3%} [0%] Democrat. Political ideology: 41% [41%] (43%) {40%} [41%] (40%) {41%} Very conservative; 35% [36%] (35%) {37%} [38%] (39%) {36%} Somewhat conservative; 18% [17%] (15%) {18%} [15%] (16%) {17%} Moderate; 4% [4%] (5%) {2%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [2%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (1%) {3%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 35% (34%) {24%} [23%] (8%) {15%}
• Mitt Romney 29% (28%) {29%} [30%] (16%) {30%}
• Ron Paul 15% (15%) {15%} [9%] (5%) {10%}
• Rick Santorum 15% (14%) {14%} [19%] (4%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (2%) {6%} [9%] (7%) {11%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 39%
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Rick Santorum 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Newt Gingrich 31%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 77% (80%) {65%} [59%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 23% (20%) {35%} [41%]

Among Those Strongly Committed to Candidate

• Newt Gingrich 39%
• Mitt Romney 32%
• Ron Paul 15%
• Rick Santorum 14%

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 20% (16%) {17%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% (17%) {20%} [14%]
• Mitt Romney 16% (18%) {17%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 10% (11%) {9%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 37% (22%) {16%} [26%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 54% (53%) {53%} [63%] (34%) {31%} [25%] / 35% (41%) {30%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [7%] {+19%} 
• Newt Gingrich 53% (54%) {51%} [49%] (42%) {37%} [54%] / 38% (38%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {44%} [25%] {+15%}
• Mitt Romney 51% (54%) {57%} [60%] (52%) {56%} [60%] / 40% (41%) {33%} [29%] (32%) {27%} [22%] {+11%}
• Ron Paul 39% (40%) {38%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [47%] / 51% (49%) {52%} [54%] (35%) {31%} [19%] {-12%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% (28%) {30%} [31%]
• No 66% (65%) {57%} [57%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 1%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 56% (52%) {56%} [57%]
• Are not 44% (48%) {44%} [43%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 40%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Rick Santorum 19%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Survey of 836 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted January 18-19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 76% (77%) {80%} [82%] (80%) {78%} [81%] Republican; 20% (16%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {19%} [18%] Independent/Other; 4%  (7%) {3%} [3%] (1%) {3%} [0%] Democrat. Political ideology: 41% (43%) {40%} [41%] (40%) {41%} Very conservative; 36% (35%) {37%} [38%] (39%) {36%} Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) {18%} [15%] (16%) {17%} Moderate; 4% (5%) {2%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {2%} [3%] (1%) {3%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: American Research Group South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 33% {25%} [24%] (33%) {8%} [3%] (9%)
• Mitt Romney 32% {29%} [31%] (22%) {25%} [25%] (18%)
• Ron Paul 19% {20%} [9%] (8%) {7%} [2%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 9% {7%} [24%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) 
• Rick Perry 4% {9%} [2%] (8%) {15%} [6%] 
• Undecided 3% {7%} [7%] (12%) {12%} [15%] (11%)

Among Tea Party Supporters

• Newt Gingrich 43% {28%} [33%]
• Mitt Romney 22% {24%} [30%]
• Ron Paul 17% {20%} [9%]
• Rick Santorum 13% {11%} [19%]
  
• Rick Perry 2% {9%} [0%]
• Other 1% {2%}
• Undecided 2% {6%} [8%]

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters

• Mitt Romney 39% {33%} [32%]
• Newt Gingrich 24% {23%} [17%] 
• Ron Paul 20% {21%} [10%]
• Rick Perry 7% {8%} [4%]
• Rick Santorum 5% {3%} [27%]
• Other 0% {2%}
• Undecided 5% {7%} [6%]

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (476 Republicans, 118 independents, and 6 Democrats) was conducted January 17-18, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: Republican: 79% {79%} [84%] (74%) {81%} [79%] (76%); Independent: 21% {21%} [16%] (26%) {19%} [21%] (24%). Tea Party supporter: 45% {47%} [46%] (46%) {47%} [51%] (52%); Not a Tea Party supporter/Undecided: 55% {53%} [54%] (54%) {53%} [49%] (48%).  Results from the poll conducted January 11-12, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4-5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 25-28, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-17, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 18-23, 2011 are in parentheses.