Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (36%)
• Joe Miller (R) 37% (38%)
• Scott McAdams (D) (22%)

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) How confident are you that you know the correct procedure for writing in Murkowski’s name so your write-in vote will be officially counted when election officials examine the ballots? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all that you know how to do that?

• Very confident 93%
• Somewhat confident 6%
• Not too confident 0%
• Not confident at all 0%

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) Suppose when you fill in your ballot, the procedure for casting a writein vote is different or more complicated than you had thought it would be. If that happens, how likely is it that you would vote for one of the candidates whose names appear on the ballot rather than trying to cast a write-in vote? Would that be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

• Very likely 6%
• Somewhat likely 4%
• Not too likely 8%
• Not likely at all 80%

(IF LIKELY) Would you be more likely under those circumstances to vote for Scott McAdams, the Democrat, or Joe Miller, the Republican?

• Very or somewhat likely to switch to McAdams 6%
• Very or somewhat likely to switch to Miller 4%
• Not likely to switch from Murkowski 88%

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 41% (45%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 20% (20%)

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38% (43%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 26% (23%)

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 58% (63%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (32%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 3% (2%)

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 40% (38%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (35%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 24% (21%)

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 65% (55%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% (39%)
• Joe Miller (R) 2% (4%) 

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 61% (67%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32% (27%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 4% (3%)

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 50% (46%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% (29%)
• Joe Miller (R) 16% (20%)

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Sean Parnell (R) (57%)
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) (38%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 62%

Survey of 946 likely voters was conducted October 15-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Initial Question: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Senate was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

(NOTE: No mention is made of Lisa Murkowski as a candidate in this question.)

• Joe Miller (R) 43%
• Scott McAdams (D) 28%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 18%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Follow-up Question: As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would you write in Lisa Murkowski?

• Stay the same 55%
• Write in Lisa Murkowski 31%

COMPUTED RESULT – Initial vote question revised with prompted Lisa Murkowski votes

• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 44%
• Joe Miller (R) 36%
• Scott McAdams (R) 14%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Gubernatorial Election

• Sean Parnell (R) 53%
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) 35%

Congressional Election

• Don Young (R) 65%
• Harry Crawford (D) 32%

Survey of 573 likely voters was conducted September 23-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Joe Miller (R) 38%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 36%
• Scott McAdams (D) 22%

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 45%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 30%
• Scott McAdams (D) 20%

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 43%
• Joe Miller (R) 30%
• Scott McAdams (D) 23%

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 63%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32%
• Scott McAdams (D) 2%

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38%
• Joe Miller (R) 35%
• Scott McAdams (D) 21%

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 55%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 39%
• Joe Miller (R) 4% 

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 67%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 27%
• Scott McAdams (D) 3%

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 46%
• Scott McAdams (D) 29%
• Joe Miller (R) 20%

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Sean Parnell (R) 57%
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%

Survey of 927 likely voters was conducted September 24-28, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.