Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Alaska 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Alaska 2014 Gubernatorial Poll 

• Bill Walker (I) 50% (50%) {47%}
• Sean Parnell (D) 43% (41%) {42%}

Survey of 887 likely voters was conducted October 27-30, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-12, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23-24, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Alaska 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Alaska 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Sean Parnell (R) 42% {40%}
• Bill Walker (I) 39% {45%}

Survey of 561 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mead Treadwell (R) 47% (34%)
• Mark Begich (D) 41% (44%)

• Dan Sullivan (R) 47%
• Mark Begich (D) 41%

• Mark Begich (D) 51% (52%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (29%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 42% (32%) / 34% (27%) {+8%}
• Dan Sullivan 36% / 37% {-1%}
• Mark Begich 43% (48%) / 48% (39%) {-5%}
• Joe Miller 17% (21%) / 67% (56%) {-50%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Begich is handling his job as Senator?

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 47% 

Survey of 677 likely voters was conducted January 20-22, 2014 for American Crossroads.  The margin of error is +/- 3.76 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (31%) Republican; 20% (15%) Democrat; 51% (54%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 47% Moderate; 38% Conservative; 13% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Begich (D) 48%
• Sean Parnell (R) 48%

• Mark Begich (D) 47%
• Dan Sullivan (R) 41%

• Mark Begich (D) 47%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 39% 

• Mark Begich (D) 50%
• Loren Leman (R) 40%

• Mark Begich (D) 54%
• Sarah Palin (R) 38%

• Mark Begich (D) 58%
• Joe Miller (R) 30%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 34% / 26% {+8%} 
• Dan Sullivan 37% / 34% {+3%}
• Loren Leman 23% / 36% {-13%}
• Sarah Palin 34% / 59% {-25%}
• Joe Miller 20% / 63% {-43%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Sean Parnell’s job performance?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 44%

GOP Senate Primary

Given the choices of Loren Leman, Joe Miller, Sean Parnell, Dan Sullivan, and Mead Treadwell, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for Senate next year?

• Sean Parnell 24%  
• Dan Sullivan 19%
• Joe Miller 17%
• Loren Leman 16% 
• Mead Treadwell 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 11%

If Sean Parnell did not run for the Senate next year, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate, given the choices of Loren Leman, Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan, and Mead Treadwell?

• Dan Sullivan 29%
• Mead Treadwell 23%
• Loren Leman 20%
• Joe Miller 19% 
• Someone else/Not sure 9%

Survey of 1,129 Alaska voters and 537 usual Republican primary voters was conducted February 4-5, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points among all voters; +/- 4.2 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID: 32% Republican; 21% Democrat; 46% Independent/Other.  Ideology: 33% Moderate; 25% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 15% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Sean Parnell (R) 45.93%
• Mark Begich (D) 40.03%
• Not sure 14.04%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 46.64%
• Sarah Palin (R) 40.37%
• Not sure 12.99%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 43.93%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 33.54%
• Not sure 22.53%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 52.29%
• Joe Miller (R) 29.35%
• Not sure 18.35%
  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sean Parnell 50.13% / 38.21% {+11.92%}
• Mark Begich 47.58% / 39.05% {+8.53%}
• Mead Treadwell 31.60% / 27.00% {+4.60%}
• Sarah Palin 33.68% / 59.98% {-26.30%}
• Joe Miller 21.42% / 55.94% {-34.52%}
  

GOP Senate Primary

• Sean Parnell 31.52% 
• Sarah Palin 26.65% 
• Mead Treadwell 14.33%
• Joe Miller 12.32%
• Not sure 15.19% 

Survey of 1,157 likely voters was conducted January 29-30, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 2.88 percentage points.  Party ID: 30.94% Republican; 14.95% Democrat; 54.11% Other.  Ideology: 32.93% Somewhat conservative; 32.32% Moderate; 21.26% Very conservative; 10.89% Liberal.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Inside the numbers:

In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%). Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.

Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%). The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).

Palin trails Begich 40%-47%. Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%). Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%). Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).

Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot. Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters. While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.

In a GOP Senate primary, Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%. Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.

Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable. The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.

Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans. Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (36%)
• Joe Miller (R) 37% (38%)
• Scott McAdams (D) (22%)

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) How confident are you that you know the correct procedure for writing in Murkowski’s name so your write-in vote will be officially counted when election officials examine the ballots? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all that you know how to do that?

• Very confident 93%
• Somewhat confident 6%
• Not too confident 0%
• Not confident at all 0%

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) Suppose when you fill in your ballot, the procedure for casting a writein vote is different or more complicated than you had thought it would be. If that happens, how likely is it that you would vote for one of the candidates whose names appear on the ballot rather than trying to cast a write-in vote? Would that be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

• Very likely 6%
• Somewhat likely 4%
• Not too likely 8%
• Not likely at all 80%

(IF LIKELY) Would you be more likely under those circumstances to vote for Scott McAdams, the Democrat, or Joe Miller, the Republican?

• Very or somewhat likely to switch to McAdams 6%
• Very or somewhat likely to switch to Miller 4%
• Not likely to switch from Murkowski 88%

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 41% (45%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 20% (20%)

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38% (43%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 26% (23%)

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 58% (63%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (32%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 3% (2%)

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 40% (38%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (35%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 24% (21%)

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 65% (55%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% (39%)
• Joe Miller (R) 2% (4%) 

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 61% (67%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32% (27%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 4% (3%)

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 50% (46%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% (29%)
• Joe Miller (R) 16% (20%)

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Sean Parnell (R) (57%)
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) (38%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 62%

Survey of 946 likely voters was conducted October 15-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alaska Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Alaska Senatorial Survey

• Joe Miller (R) 35% [42%] {50%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 34% [27%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 27% [25%] {44%}
• Other 1% [1%] {4%}
• Not sure 3% [5%] {2%}

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 55% [65%] {79%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% [27%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 6% [3%] {15%}
• Other 1% [0%] {5%}
• Not sure 1% [5%] {1%}

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 44% [30%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 28% [32%] {56%}
• Joe Miller (R) 20% [30%] {34%}
• Other 4% [3%] {4%}
• Not sure 5% [5%] {6%}

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 78% [74%] {90%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 16% [18%]
• Joe Miller (R) 3% [7%] {7%}
• Other 0% [0%] {1%}
• Not sure 4% [2%] {2%}

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 59% [71%] {82%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% [23%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 6% [2%] {13%}
• Other 2% [1%] {3%}
• Not sure 2% [3%] {2%}

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 50% [34%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% [39%] {62%}
• Joe Miller (R) 14% [21%] {28%}
• Other 1% [0%] {7%} 
• Not sure 2% [5%] {4%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38%
• Joe Miller (R) 37%
• Scott McAdams (D) 25%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott McAdams 50% [36%] {43%} / 41% [46%] {36%} {+9%}
• Lisa Murkowski 53% [55%] / 46% [44%] {+7%}
• Joe Miller 39% [45%] {50%} / 59% [51%] {44%} {-20%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 26% [21%] {31%} [26%] (27%)
• Somewhat approve 15% [21%] {15%} [14%] (12%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% [9%] {7%} [7%] (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 51% [50%] {47%} [51%] (51%)

How would you rate the job Sean Parnell has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 18% [20%] {17%} [16%] (20%)
• Somewhat approve 40% [46%] {42%} [45%] (50%)
• Somewhat disapprove 27% [23%] {26%} [25%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 12% [10%] {14%} [13%] (9%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 13, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 53% [44%] Republican; 22% [15%] Democrat; 25% [41%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Initial Question: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Senate was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

(NOTE: No mention is made of Lisa Murkowski as a candidate in this question.)

• Joe Miller (R) 43%
• Scott McAdams (D) 28%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 18%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Follow-up Question: As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would you write in Lisa Murkowski?

• Stay the same 55%
• Write in Lisa Murkowski 31%

COMPUTED RESULT – Initial vote question revised with prompted Lisa Murkowski votes

• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 44%
• Joe Miller (R) 36%
• Scott McAdams (R) 14%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Gubernatorial Election

• Sean Parnell (R) 53%
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) 35%

Congressional Election

• Don Young (R) 65%
• Harry Crawford (D) 32%

Survey of 573 likely voters was conducted September 23-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Joe Miller (R) 38%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 36%
• Scott McAdams (D) 22%

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 45%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 30%
• Scott McAdams (D) 20%

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 43%
• Joe Miller (R) 30%
• Scott McAdams (D) 23%

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 63%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32%
• Scott McAdams (D) 2%

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38%
• Joe Miller (R) 35%
• Scott McAdams (D) 21%

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 55%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 39%
• Joe Miller (R) 4% 

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 67%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 27%
• Scott McAdams (D) 3%

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 46%
• Scott McAdams (D) 29%
• Joe Miller (R) 20%

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Sean Parnell (R) 57%
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%

Survey of 927 likely voters was conducted September 24-28, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.