Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%} [48%] (38%) {52%} [50%] (43%)
• Donald Trump (R) 36% {37%} [32%] (38%) {35%} [36%] (32%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 7% {8%} [8%]
• Jill Stein (G) 1% {1%} [3%] 

Survey of 814 likely voters was conducted October 2-6, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11-20, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 7-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-17, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 18-26, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 10-20, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 38% {52%} [50%] (43%)
• Donald Trump (R) 38% {35%} [36%] (32%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 30% / 50% {-20%}
• Donald Trump 23% / 56% {-33%}

Survey of 610 likely voters was conducted May 9-17, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted January 18-26, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 10-20, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
• Jeb Bush (R) 40%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
• Marco Rubio (R) 40%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
• Scott Walker (R) 38%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
• Donald Trump (R) 32%

Survey of 535 registered voters was conducted August 10-20, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.24 percentage points.  Click here to view topline results.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [44%] (48%)
• Chris Christie (R) 37% [34%] (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [47%] (51%)
• Paul Ryan (R) 37% [38%] (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [47%] (52%)
• Rand Paul (R) 35% [37%] (38%)

Survey of 630 registered voters was conducted September 13-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% [35%] (29%) Democrat; 28% [27%] (24%) Republican; 18% [28%] (47%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 14-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (51%)
• Paul Ryan (R) 38% (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (48%)
• Chris Christie (R) 34% (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (52%)
• Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)

Survey of 566 registered voters was conducted July 14-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 35% (29%) Democrat; 27% (24%) Republican; 28% (47%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
• Chris Christie (R) 40%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
• Paul Ryan (R) 40%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
• Rand Paul (R) 38%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 56% / 40% {+16%}
• Paul Ryan 43% / 33% {+10%}
• Chris Christie 40% / 38% {+2%}
• Rand Paul 34% / 37% {-3%} 
• Andrew Cuomo 27% / 33% {-6%}

Survey of 707 registered voters was conducted February 22-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% Democrat; 24% Republican; 47% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine (D) 47%
• George Allen (R) 37%
• Uncertain 17%

Among Men

• George Allen (R) 45%
• Tim Kaine (D) 41%

Among Women

• Tim Kaine (D) 52%
• George Allen (R) 30%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tim Kaine 49% / 29% {+20%}
• George Allen 38% / 34% {+4%}

Survey of 589 likely voters was conducted September 19-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 28% Independent; 9% Other/None. Ideology: 40% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 21% Liberal.  Gender: 45% Male; 55% Female.  Race: 81% White; 15% Black.

Inside the numbers: 

The candidates are statistically tied among White voters (Allen leads 43% - 40%), but Kaine has a very large lead among Black voters (77% - 7%). Kaine leads with Moderates (57% - 25%), but Allen leads among Independents (46% - 39%). Kaine holds leads in every region of the state except the Shenandoah Valley, which is statistically tied.

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama (D) 47%
• Mitt Romney (R) 39%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Virgil Goode (C) 1%
• Undecided 10%

Including "Leaners"

• Barack Obama (D) 48%
• Mitt Romney (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 2%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Virgil Goode (C) 1%
• Undecided 7%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 94%
• Mitt Romney 1%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 88%
• Barack Obama 2%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 9%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 32%
• Other 8%
• Undecided 16%

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 42%
• Other 6%
• Undecided 8%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 34%
• Other 12%
• Undecided 3%

(Among Obama Voters) Would you say that your vote for Obama is more of a vote for him or a vote against Romney? 

• Vote for Obama 74% 
• Vote against Romney 15% 

(Among Romney Voters) Would you say that your vote for Romney is more of a vote for him or a vote against Obama? 

• Vote for Romney 48% 
• Vote against Obama 34%  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 50% / 41% {+9%}
• Mitt Romney 36% / 45% {-9%}

Regardless of you are voting for, which candidate, Obama or Romney, do you think would do a better job dealing with the following issues?

Reducing unemployment

• Obama 46%
• Romney 43%

Reducing the budget deficit

• Romney 49%
• Obama 39%

Taxes

• Obama 49%
• Romney 40%

Dealing with foreign policy

• Obama 52%
• Romney 38%

The War on Terror

• Obama 50%
• Romney 38%

Social security

• Obama 49%
• Romney 38%

Medicare

• Obama 51%
• Romney 38%

Health care

• Obama 50%
• Romney 39%

Immigration

• Obama 47%
• Romney 39%

Which candidate do you think is a stronger leader?

• Obama 48%
• Romney 36%

Just in general, how well do you think Barack Obama understands the needs of people like you? Very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well?

• Very well 33%
• Fairly well 23%
• Not too well 14%
• Not at all well 27%

Just in general, how well do you think Mitt Romney understands the needs of people like you? Very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well?

• Very well 12%
• Fairly well 29%
• Not too well 19%
• Not at all well 36%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President of the United States? 

• Approve 46% 
• Disapprove 45% 

Survey of 589 likely voters was conducted September 19-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 28% Independent; 9% Other/None. Ideology: 40% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 21% Liberal.  Gender: 45% Male; 55% Female.  Race: 81% White; 15% Black. Click here to view crosstabs.