Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {44%} [44%] (46%) {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [46%] (42%) {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 3% {5%} [3%] (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 6% {8%} [7%] (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [45%] (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%}  [44%] (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% {5%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 5% {8%} [7%] (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% {44%} [44%] (44%) {39%} [41%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [47%] (45%) {39%} [45%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% {6%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 8% {7%} [7%] (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 597 likely voters was conducted October 25-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 15-19, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% [44%] (46%) {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [46%] (42%) {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% [3%] (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 8% [7%] (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 43% [45%] (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43%  [44%] (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 8% [7%] (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% [44%] (44%) {39%} [41%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [47%] (45%) {39%} [45%]
• David Patterson (L) 6% [2%] (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% [7%] (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 655 likely voters was conducted October 15-19, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 46% (42%) {39%} [43%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% (46%) {41%} [42%]
• David Patterson (L) 3% (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 7% (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45% (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44% (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 7% (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% (45%) {39%} [45%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% (44%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 632 likely voters was conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 46% {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 8% {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38% {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 6% {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 8% {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% {39%} [45%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% {15%} [9%]

Survey of 569 likely voters was conducted August 25-27, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 47% {42%} [44%] Democrat; 37% {41%} [43%] Republican; 15% {18%} [11%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% [42%] (42%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% [43%] (46%)
• Undecided 8% [7%] (12%)

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 49% [42%] (46%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [41%] (43%)
• Undecided 8% [6%] (11%)

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% [45%] (49%)
• Mitch McConnell (R) 46% [41%] (37%)
• Undecided 8% [9%] (14%)

What if Libertarian David Patterson enters the race? Who would you vote for?

• Mitch McConnell (R) 41%  [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39%  [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 7% [4%]
• Undecided 13% [7%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Among Registered Voters

• Alison Lundergan Grimes 36% [35%] (26%) / 33% [27%] (27%) {+3%}
• Mitch McConnell 36% [29%] (27%) / 43% [49%] (50%) {-7%}

Survey of 714 registered voters, including 604 likely voters, was conducted July 18-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4.1 percentage points among likely voters. Party ID (among likely voters): 42% [44%] (51%) Democrat; 41% [43%] (37%) Republican; 18% [11%] (9%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 - February 4, 2014 are in parentheses.