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United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Poll
- Barack Obama 50% (47%)
- Mitt Romney 45% (47%)
Survey of 713 likely voters was conducted October 25-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error
is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 29% Republican; 30% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Forty-seven percent (47%) of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September.
The survey found an overwhelming correlation between preferences in the presidential race and the battle for congressional control. In the House, fully 85 percent of Obama voters preferred a Democratic majority, while 92 percent of Romney voters said they want the Republicans to maintain control. In the Senate, Obama voters by 89 percent to 3 percent said they preferred Democratic control, while Romney voters, by 83 percent to 9 percent, want Republicans to take the majority.
In the poll, three-fifths of likely voters say that if Romney wins they want Democrats to control at least one chamber “so they can act as a check” on his agenda; just 34 percent want Republicans to control both chambers “so they can implement his agenda.” Even among those voting for Romney, fully one-fourth say they want Democrats to control one congressional chamber.
Likewise, just 36 percent of voters want Democrats to control both chambers if Obama wins; 58 percent say they want Republicans to hold at least one to check him. About one-fourth of Obama voters say they would prefer divided control.
In its likely-voter model, the poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).
United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Poll
Likely Voters
- Barack Obama 47%
- Mitt Romney 47%
Registered Voters
- Barack Obama 49%
- Mitt Romney 44%
Survey of likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error
is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID (among likely voters): 36% Democrat; 29% Republican; 30% Independent.
Inside the numbers:
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the non-white vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
Whoever wins the presidency, voters don’t want to give the winner’s party a blank check to run the federal government. A solid majority of likely voters (55 percent) said that if Obama is reelected, they still hope that Republicans keep at least one chamber of Congress. Similarly, more than six in 10 voters said that if Romney wins, they prefer that Democrats keep at least one chamber “so they can act as a check” on his agenda.
The desire to curb whichever party is in power is shared by Democrats and Republicans alike. Among Romney supporters, 32 percent still hope for Democrats to control at least one chamber. And among Obama backers, 23 percent want Republicans to wield the gavel in the House, the Senate, or both.
Notably, fewer than one in 10 likely voters said they didn’t want a check on either the Romney or Obama agenda.
Forty-five percent of voters said Democratic leaders were more likely to compromise, while 31 percent said Republicans were, and 8 percent volunteered that neither party was more likely to do so.
The divide among partisans was telling. Far more Democrats viewed their own leaders as more willing to compromise (81 percent) than Republicans did (66 percent). Among independents, 40 percent saw Democrats as more willing to compromise, compared with only 30 percent for Republicans.
